Decoded Genius podcast

War Expert: The Next Big War Will Come After The Midterms

21/10/2026
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37:45
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Watch the full episode here: https://youtu.be/fhL44S4HfCk


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WHAT WE DECODED

→ The history book on plagues that led him to expect a rise in US political violence in spring 2020, before it arrived

→ Why January 6th defendants looked nothing like the unemployed militia members behind earlier attacks

→ What more than 20 nationally representative surveys show about support for political violence on both sides

→ How "permission structures" nudge volatile individuals over the edge, and the term he coined for this era: violent populism

→ Why support rose on both sides after the 2024 election, from about 8% to 14% on the right and 8 to 10% to 16% on the left

→ Why he doesn't expect a civil war or a sudden slide into authoritarianism, and what he fears instead

→ The October 2020 warning he gave on Chicago Tonight about the stretch through the seating of Congress

→ His sealed-envelope prediction for the 2026 midterms, and the one safeguard he wants in place while votes are cast


CHAPTERS

00:00:40 The Sealed Envelope & The Most Dangerous Midterms

00:00:57 30 Years Tracking Political Violence & A Lecture On COVID

00:03:53 Plagues And Peoples & Why Pandemics Pull Countries Apart

00:06:31 George Floyd & The Summer Of 2020

00:08:36 January 6th, Doctors, Lawyers & CEOs

00:12:00 David Axelrod & 20 Nationally Representative Surveys

00:13:18 Tens Of Millions, Permission Structures & Violent Populism

00:16:58 Is It Growing? From 8% To 16%

00:21:11 Civil War, Authoritarianism & Constitutional Hardball

00:25:43 China, Election Warnings & Planting Seeds

00:27:26 2028 & Grading Trump's Presidency

00:29:42 The October 2020 Warning Before January 6th

00:31:28 The Envelope: Will Democrats Be Seated?

00:34:53 Could It Get Violent? & One Step To Take Now


#DecodedGenius #RobertPape #Midterms2026 #PoliticalViolence #Democracy

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