Summer Outlook: What to Make of Extreme Weather Predictions

Recent elections in the European Union shook up the continent’s climate politics. Far-right parties performed well in both the EU’s parliament and national governments, and the Greens lost nearly all of their gains over the past five years in the European parliament. Voters pointed to energy costs, security, and economic competitiveness as key factors in their decision-making.   So what do these elections indicate about the shifting political ideology of the European Union? How will they impact Europe’s relations with the U.S. and China? And what do these elections mean for European climate and energy policy?   This week, host Jason Bordoff talks with Ann Mettler, vice president for Europe at Breakthrough Energy, a network of investment funds, philanthropies, and nonprofits dedicated to scaling low-carbon technologies. She previously served as director-general at the European Commission, where she ran an in-house think tank called the European Political Strategy Centre. Prior to that, she was the executive director of the Lisbon Council, an economic policy think tank she founded in 2003.   Jason and Ann discuss the results of the recent European elections, the economic competitiveness challenges facing the European Union, and Ann’s views on Europe’s new tariffs on China.

 In the next few months, heat waves, droughts, thunderstorms, and hurricanes will wreak havoc on regions around the world. Climate scientists say these events are becoming more extreme and dangerous thanks in part to the changing climate.  For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the 2024 hurricane season, which just started June 1, anticipates an exceptionally high number of storms this year.  So, why are extreme weather events worsening? How is climate change contributing to this development? And what measures are being taken to adapt to this new reality?  This week host Bill Loveless talks with Radley Horton about the outlook for extreme weather events across the globe this summer, and why the intensity and severity of them is expected to increase. Radley is a professor at the Columbia Climate School, where he teaches and researches climate extremes, risks, impacts, and adaptation. He was a convening lead author for the United States’ Third National Climate Assessment, and he is currently a principal investigator for NOAA, focusing on climate risk in the urban U.S. Northeast.

The elections for the European Parliament will take place in a couple of days, and polls currently suggest the Parliament will undergo a rightward shift.  The last elections five years ago in 2019 saw major electoral gains for the environmentalist parties and popular support for ambitious energy transition plans. But the upcoming elections come following a tumultuous few years for the continent that included an energy crisis and an economic crisis.   So how will the upcoming elections impact Europe's energy transition? And how will Europe balance the needs for more rapid climate action, energy security and economic competitiveness? This week host Jason Bordoff talks with Dominique Ristori about how Europe will accelerate its clean energy progress and enhance its energy security. Dominique is the former director general energy of the European Commission. He currently is a senior advisor at Dentons Global Advisors. Dominique began his career at the European Commission in 1978 and held several senior positions throughout his career. Prior to his role as director general energy, he was director-general of the Joint Research Center.

On May 8th, the U.S. Department of Energy proposed ten new “national interest electric transmission corridors” – a designation that allows the federal government to accelerate projects in areas where consumers are harmed by lack of transmission.  Days later, on the 13th, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission released Orders 1920 and 1977. Both of the new rules aim to expedite the build out of the nation’s electric grid by tackling major issues such as cost allocation and long-term planning.  So, how will these actions from the federal government impact transmission projects? What are critics of the FERC rules saying? And why are these long-awaited reforms happening now?  This week host Bill Loveless talks with Rob Gramlich about the impact the new FERC rules will have on current and future transmission projects.  Rob is the founder and president of Grid Strategies, a consulting firm focused on transmission and power markets. He has co-founded multiple organizations focused on power systems reliability and sustainability, including Americans for a Clean Energy Grid and the Working for Advanced Transmission Technologies Coalition. From 2001-2005, Rob served as an economic advisor to FERC chairman Pat Wood.

Industry accounts for one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, a share that will only increase in the coming years.  Other high-emission sectors, like electric power and transportation, are cutting emissions  through renewables and electrification. But the pathways to reducing emissions from manufacturing materials such as iron, steel, chemicals, cement, and concrete are still unclear.  A new book by Jeffrey Rissman, titled Zero-Carbon Industry: Transformative Technologies and Policies to Achieve Sustainable Prosperity., dives into the nuances of industrial decarbonization and lays out a roadmap for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions between 2050 and 2070.  So, what are some of the pathways for reducing manufacturing emissions? And how can policy support decarbonization?  This week host Bill Loveless talks with Jeffrey about his book and its look at the workings of heavy industrial polluters and the ways to affordably decarbonize manufacturing.  Jeffrey is the senior director of the industry program at Energy Innovation, a nonpartisan energy and climate policy firm, where he leads the company’s work on technologies and policies to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the industry sector.  Zero-Carbon Industry is part of the Center on Global Energy Policy’s book series, and is published by Columbia University Press. 

In April, the Environmental Protection Agency passed four new rules to reduce pollution from fossil fuel-fired power plants. One of the new rules requires many new gas and existing coal power plants to control 90 percent of their carbon pollution if they plan to operate beyond 2039. The other three rules specifically target coal, requiring the industry to clean up various parts of the value chain including toxic metal emissions from power generation, wastewater pollution, and coal ash management. And while the Biden Administration and other proponents consider the new rules a step in the right direction, opponents argue they will undermine the reliability of energy systems.    So, how will the EPA’s new regulations impact the energy industry? What makes these standards different from previous attempts to regulate energy emissions? And how might opponents try to overturn them? This week host Bill Loveless talks with Jody Freeman about the technicalities of the new EPA power plant rules, and the legal avenues opponents might pursue to overturn them. Jody is the Archibald Cox professor of law and the founding director of the Harvard Law School Environmental & Energy Law Program. From 2009-2010, she served as a counselor for energy and climate change in the Obama White House. Jody has also previously served on the Advisory Council of the Electric Power Research Institute and as an independent director of ConocoPhillips.

Indonesia’s economy is closely tied to its natural resources. It’s the world’s fourth largest producer of coal, and Southeast Asia’s largest gas supplier.  But even with its connection to fossil fuels, the country’s population strongly supports climate goals. In this year’s presidential election, every candidate advocated for the energy transition and more renewables.  At the same time, like many developing countries, Indonesia needs energy security, increased access to energy, and affordability. These factors complicate the energy transition, and could prolong the use of existing fossil fuel infrastructure and abundant coal resources.  So, how can Indonesian policymakers balance economic development and the energy transition? What is the role of renewables in meeting the country’s growing energy demands? And how can Indonesia collaborate in energy with other Asian nations? This week host Bill Loveless talks with Mari Pangestu about the efforts to build a clean energy economy in Indonesia.  Mari is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy. From 2020 to 2023, she served as the managing director of development policies and partnerships at the World Bank. Prior to joining the World Bank, Mari served as Indonesia’s minister of trade and as minister of tourism and creative economy.

Across the U.S., large scale renewable energy projects, transmission lines, and mining sites for critical minerals are built on or near tribal lands. For example, the federal government plans to loan billions of dollars to Lithium Americas to develop a lithium mine in Nevada at a location known as Thacker Pass, sacred to local Paiute and Shoshone people.  With the tumultuous history of energy development on indigenous lands, many tribes are pushing back on citing new infrastructure on their land. So, how is the energy transition impacting Native American communities? And what are advocacy groups and the federal government doing to protect indigenous rights and lands? This week host Bill Loveless talks with Kate Finn about the contentious history of energy projects on Native American lands, how that history influences energy development today, and how her organization is working to ensure Native Americans have a seat at the table in determining how best to use indigenous lands.  Kate is the executive director of First Peoples Worldwide, an organization focused on upholding the rights, sovereignty, and economic power of Indigenous People around the world. She was the inaugural American Indian Law Program Fellow at the University of Colorado Law, where she worked directly with tribes and Native communities. Her recent work focuses on the impacts of development in Indigenous communities, and embedding respect for Indigenous peoples into routine business operations.

Geopolitics looms large over the global economy. A recent client survey by Goldman Sachs found geopolitics is the top investment risk of this year, overtaking inflation and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.  The market impacts by the wars in Europe and the Middle East, and the rising tension between China and Taiwan, are hard to predict. And the rise of protectionism, economic fragmentation, and industrial policy are inflaming tensions in a new era of great power competition.  So, how should we understand this shifting world order? What is coming next in the Middle East following Iran’s attack on Israel? And how do energy and climate change impact national security?  This week’s episode features a fireside chat between Jason Bordoff and Tom Donilon from the Columbia Global Energy Summit 2024, which was hosted by the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia SIPA last week at Columbia University in New York.  Tom is chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute. From 2010 to 2013, he served as national security advisor to President Barack Obama. He has worked closely with and advised three U.S. presidents since his first position at the White House in 1977, working with President Carter. He later served in senior roles in the Pentagon and the State Department.

Cleaner alternatives to the oil and gas that power vital industries are necessary for economy-wide decarbonization. E-fuels, or electrofuels, are touted as a carbon neutral solution for the hard-to-decarbonize sectors that rely on energy dense fossil fuels.  E-fuels are made by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide. Through the electrolysis process, water is split into oxygen and hydrogen atoms. The hydrogen is then combined with CO2 through a process called synthesis. The outcome is an energy-dense liquid, synthetic fuel.  But currently, the e-fuels production process makes these alternatives more expensive than fossil fuels. And when burned, they release CO2, making critics question the claims of climate neutrality.  So, what is the climate impact of e-fuels? What industries are turning to these alternatives for decarbonization? And how can policy and tax incentives make them cost competitive with conventional oil and gas?  This week host Bill Loveless talks with Meg Gentle about the use of e-fuels for transport.  Meg is the executive director of HIF Global, an e-fuel company developing some of the largest projects around the world. Before joining HIF, Meg served as the director of Ovintiv, an independent petroleum company, and as the president and CEO of the natural gas company Tellurian. She also spent ten years working for Cheniere Energy, helping grow their LNG marketing and trading company into a world-wide business.