More Siskos Than Picards

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan all signed the Mecca Accord after Washington began telling the region that its security was now the region's problem, and Iran is stuck in between a rock and a hard place. They can't afford to fall, nor can they afford to keep fighting - so says Kamran Bokhari. He calls is "a secretary general without a secretariat." Which is better than calling it nothing (I guess). After a chat about the middle east, Bokhari, of the New Lines Institute, and Jacob get into one of the most pertinent geopolitical events of this quarter - the death of Patrick Stewart. Jacob credits Jean-Luc Picard with more of his moral code than almost anyone, real or fictional. Picard was built for an age of hope. Benjamin Sisko was built for this one.(00:00) - Intro/Welcome(03:02) - America hands off the Middle East(07:03) - Why Iran's regime won't fall(11:51) - Can Iran come in from the cold?(19:55) - Not a Muslim NATO(22:28) - Israel after the election(29:42) - Turkey after Erdoğan(33:54) - India and Pakistan(38:30) - Patrick Stewart, Picard and Sisko(45:50) - Klingons, Romulans and the Cold War(52:01) - Virtue versus the rules(56:46) - Dune and the age of the anti-hero--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

An American official walks into a Malaysian data center and finds a hoard of Nvidia equipment still in its boxes. Two years later, U.S. officials reportedly believe an executive at the company behind it, Alice Huang, is a Chinese intelligence asset, and Jensen Huang has admitted to an affair, understood to be with her. Huang has spent years arguing against American export controls on chips. Jacob Shapiro sets the affair aside and follows the leak. Beijing had little reason to burn that kind of leverage, which points back to a Washington security establishment that never wanted a deal. Blade Runner imagined corporations swallowing the state. Shapiro expects the reverse.--(00:00) - Intro/Welcome(01:04) - The question that matters: who leaked this?(01:40) - Alice Huang and Megaspeed(03:41) - Why Huang opposes export controls(04:47) - Huang versus Dario Amodei(06:19) - The honeypot allegation(08:04) - Trump's G2 and the deep state(10:16) - Could China, or Huang, have leaked it?(11:51) - Wiles, Miller and the leak problem(13:16) - How Chinese intelligence works(14:58) - Why tech can't stay out of politics(17:01) - Blade Runner, and who holds the power--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

A flaw sat for years in the code beneath most of the world's websites until an AI model went looking for it (See: PHP2Shell). Dror Poleg, an economic historian who writes about technology and work, doesn't think patching ends the story: the attack surface only widens, and some things may have to come off the internet altogether. Then to Israel, voting on October 27, where Benjamin Netanyahu campaigns against dangers his own government deepened and has floated crypto as a hedge against sanctions. Last, two fathers of small children compare notes on raising them alongside the machines. The main thing to do about AI, it turns out, is other things.Cue the newest show in Jacob Shapiro's sphere - Minor Powers. Jacob Shapiro and Dror Poleg are embarking on a weekly journey to discuss tech, war, AI, and how to be a dad in the 21st century.--(00:00) - Intro/Welcome(01:57) - Black October and the PHP flaw(05:54) - The end of the internet?(09:09) - Banking, privacy and encryption(12:04) - Learning to live with the risk(13:48) - Israel votes(16:54) - Netanyahu's bench and the FlyDubai plot(21:35) - Crypto against sanctions(25:38) - A state like any other(27:54) - Young voters and the old guard(28:54) - Will AI kill the creative class?(34:24) - Raising kids around AI----Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Dror Poleg's Site: https://www.drorpoleg.com/Dror Poleg's Twitter: https://x.com/drorpolegDror Poleg's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drorpoleg/Dror Poleg's Substack: https://newsletter.drorpoleg.com/--Dror Poleg is an economic historian and former tech and private-equity executive. He researches technology’s impact on work, markets, and the built world. Dror’s writing has appeared in The New York Times and The Atlantic, and his insights have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and The Times of London. He briefs leadership teams at companies like JPMorgan, UBS, and HSBC.--Minor Powers is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Ukraine has had three revolutions since 1990: students on Kyiv's granite square, the Orange crowds of 2004, the Maidan in 2014. Volodymyr Ishchenko, a sociologist at the Institute for East European Studies in Berlin, argues that none of them built a stronger state, and that this, more than any Russian tank, explains where Ukraine stands now: a country whose budget is largely paid for by the European Union, run by elites who bet everything on an international order that may not outlast the war. He follows the argument all the way down, to who can pay a bribe to escape the draft, and who cannot.(00:00) - Intro/Welcome(01:14) - Is Ukraine still a sovereign state?(09:34) - Where the sovereignty went(14:49) - Three "weak, deficient revolutions"(18:51) - Israel, South Korea and other borrowed models(22:04) - Europe's Foederati(26:13) - The Georgian path(30:00) - Can Europe get its act together?(34:29) - Did the invasion make sense for Russia?(41:47) - Who rallied around Putin, and why(46:44) - Winners and losers on both sides(55:19) - "A Ukraine of our dreams" and the draft economyJacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribeVolodymyr Ischenko - https://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/en/soziologie/team/team2/ishchenko.html The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.comeignJacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

A Brazilian congressman runs a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army." This week it passed ten million followers, part of a late surge that has turned a race Lula was losing into a near tie. Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics maps what Sunday's runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro decides: who fills at least three of the Supreme Court's eleven seats, whether anyone fixes debt rules built for an age of runaway inflation, and who controls the world's second-largest rare earth reserves - where an American company has agreed to buy a mine. Monica is extremely confident in at least one thing: "The potential to disappoint is enormous."--(00:00) - Intro/Welcome(01:20) - A race that flipped in three weeks(03:33) - Meta, WhatsApp and the online campaign(05:39) - Supreme Court seats and the Orbán comparison(09:47) - Lula's record, and the market's hope for a Brazilian Milei(15:40) - Why Brazil's interest rates are so high(21:24) - The reforms nobody will make(26:09) - Washington, Beijing and Brazil's new trade deals(33:36) - Can Brazil lead? Rare earths and a mine in Goiás(41:46) - Why micro-entrepreneurs left Lula(47:14) - The military and Brazil's regional role(51:36) - "The potential to disappoint is enormous"--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Brazil was always the country of the future - prophesied as a new Eden since the sixteenth century, promised great things that never quite arrived. Alex Hochuli’s argument is that the future caught up to Brazil from the other direction. The wealthy world didn’t pull the laggards forward; it declined to meet them. A shrinking middle class, patrimonial politics, collapsing trust, gated condominiums and open sewers alongside WhatsApp. This is Brazilianization, and Hochuli joins from São Paulo days after Lula’s loss in the first round to explain what it looks like from inside. A bleak conversation, honestly held - and one that argues the center didn’t get stolen from. It ran out of things to say.--Timestamps:00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro01:45 Alex Journey to Brazil04:05 Election Shock and Polls06:57 Why Voters Want Change10:07 Lula Coalition and Constraints12:54 Security and Cost of Living15:28 Brazil in Regional Context19:18 Scandals and Hyper Online Politics23:02 Where Did the Left Go24:03 Work Precarity and New Aspirations28:50 Gambling Faith and Get Rich Culture32:04 Evangelical Surge Explained34:51 Urban Insecurity and Community36:20 Religion Shifts Politics Right37:18 Brazilianization Goes Global38:44 Modernization Ends and Decay43:48 Flexibility Era Revisited45:45 China as an Exception50:13 US China and Brazil Voice53:46 Why Brazil Lacks a Project57:10 Identity Crisis and Interior Boom59:38 Hope Interregnum and Rightward Energy01:03:21 Closing Anecdotes and Farewell--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.General Context: Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.Modern Conflict Timeline:1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:20) - Abiy Ambition and Ethiopia(03:33) - Development Model Shift(06:39) - South Korea Lessons METEC(09:13) - New War Regional Risks(11:15) - Ethno Federalism and TPLF(13:16) - Outside Powers and Dam(15:40) - Why Regions Splinter(20:56) - Unraveling or Recohere(26:30) - Eritrea Whiplash Explained(31:53) - Gulf Rivalries and Drones(38:07) - What Happens Next(42:04) - Why This Matters Outro--Referenced in the Show:The Africa Report: https://www.theafricareport.com/author/nicholas-norbrook/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules(35:03) - Universities Under Strain(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash(50:19) - Sports as Social Barometer(54:19) - Closing Thanks and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:The Pulse: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/tag/the-pulse/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.Timestamps:(00:00) - Podcast Welcome(00:44) - Recording In Amazon(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region(36:58) - Security As A Pretext(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a geoscientist at McGill, studies where it comes from and who pays the price for it. Dubai imports its sand from Australia. Greenland's melting ice sheet is quietly producing a new export. And somewhere in Rwanda, a woman crushes stones by hand for two weeks to earn twenty dollars. The foundation of the modern world turns out to be a resource with no lobby, no regulation, and a growing body count.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro!(01:20) - Jacob Meets Expert(02:26) - Why Sand Matters(04:08) - Which Sand Works(05:45) - Where Demand Explodes(09:05) - Scarcity And Prices(12:02) - Dubai Imports Sand(13:32) - Greenland Sand Boom(19:04) - Africa And Mekong Mining(23:36) - Alternatives And Recycling(27:18) - Singapore Land Reclamation(34:13) - Why Study Sand(36:08) - Policy And Labor Dilemmas(43:06) - Wrap Up And Takeaways(46:50) - Outro And Credits--Referenced in the Show:Mette Bendixon - https://www.mettebendixen.com/Time Is Running Out For Sand (Nature) - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02042-4Reddit Thread - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1usi0ze/what_is_a_multibillion_dollar_industry_that_the/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--