Is Reform about to overtake Labour? And Tulip Siddiq resigns

New voting intention polling today puts Reform neck and neck with Labour. The YouGov/Times poll reveals that support for Starmer’s army has plummeted nine points, with just over a quarter of Brits backing the government – while Nigel Farage’s Reform party has seen its support soar by 10 points. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have lost two points, while the canvassing of 2,279 adults – carried out between 12–13 January – shows the Lib Dems and the Greens both gained one. Perhaps the most damning news, however, is that only half of those who backed Labour in the 2024 election would vote for them next time. Where is Reform drawing these votes from? Is this polling worse for Labour, or the Tories? Also, earlier today Tulip Siddiq resigned from her in the Treasury after allegations she lived in homes tied to her aunt’s ousted regime in Bangladesh. Was this inevitable?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Scarlett Maguire, director at JL Partners. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Former Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she is separating from her husband Peter Murrell, former chief executive of the SNP. The announcement comes as the police probe into the SNP’s funds and finances remains ongoing, with Sturgeon and ex-SNP treasurer Colin Beattie under investigation while Murrell was charged with embezzlement in April 2024.  Katy Balls is joined by The Spectator’s editor Michael Gove, and data editor Michael Simmons, to discuss the separation, why the investigation is still ongoing four years later, and what chances Scottish Labour or Reform have against the SNP in 2025. 

It’s rare that a world leader knows the name of a junior minister in the British government – let alone calls for them to be sacked. Yet that is the feat achieved by Tulip Siddiq, No. 4 in Rachel Reeves’s Treasury team. The anti-corruption minister is now facing calls to resign from the leader of Bangladesh, who condemned the use of properties gifted to her and her family by its former regime. Elsewhere, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch joined the chorus of people calling for Siddiq to resign over the weekend, warning of a diplomatic crisis. On the Sunday media round, even Science Minister Peter Kyle refused to say that the government has full confidence in Siddiq, stating only that he has full confidence in the ongoing investigation by the Prime Minister’s ethics watchdog. It seems less a matter of a simple ‘sorry’ and more a question of whether Siddiq will still be a Labour MP in a week’s time. What’s keeping her in the job? Is it just her proximity to Keir Starmer? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Stephen Bush. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows. Fires continue to burn in LA, as Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term. Here in the UK, Labour is fighting its own fires, with anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq becoming part of a corruption investigation herself, and the Chancellor heading to China for investment as her budget comes under increasing pressure. Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill. 

This week, MPs voted against a new national inquiry into grooming gangs. The vote followed weeks of pressure on Labour after Elon Musk brought grooming gangs back into the spotlight, after safeguarding minister Jess Phillips rejected a new national inquiry. If we did have a national inquiry, what would it achieve? We’ve had many in recent years; Iraq, Grenfell Covid, the Post Office. Do they achieve meaningful justice for victims, or are they a drawn-out way to avoid knotty legislative change? Does parliament have the mechanisms to enact the recommendations – have politicians ever done this in the past, and is there an appetite to do so in the future? Deputy broadcast editor Natasha Feroze discusses with Spectator assistant editor Isabel Hardman, and Raja Miah, anti-grooming gang campaigner and Oldham commentator.

The war between Labour and Elon Musk continues to rage. Today the Financial Times reports that the tech tycoon has had discussions about ousting Keir Starmer before the next election, while the Mirror holds a report that the Home Office has been assessing Elon Musk's tweets as a part of their efforts to tackle online extremism. Cindy Yu talks to Katy Balls and James Heale about whether Musk can really threaten Starmer's position. Produced by Cindy Yu.

Long term borrowing costs for the government have reached levels not seen since 1998, and 10 year UK gilts are now at their highest point since the 2008 financial crash. Both surpass the levels seen during the Liz Truss premiership - and this hasn't gone unnoticed by the former PM. A set of similar circumstances, but could the consequences be the same? What are the economic - and political - challenges facing Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves? James Heales speaks to Kate Andrews and Katy Balls to unpack the latest tranche of economic data. Produced by Patrick Gibbons. 

At PMQs today, the battle lines were drawn ahead of today’s vote on Labour’s Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill, which aims to protect children within the education system. Its contents have galvanised opposition parties, who are using the legislation to force a fresh inquiry into grooming gangs. Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott has also been on the airwaves today, attacking some of the reforms detailed in the plan, specifically on academies and free schools. The government is set to take away many of their freedoms to set curriculum and pay, freedoms given to them by our now editor – then education secretary – Michael Gove. So, do academies have a future in the education system? What’s Labour’s motivation here? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Michael Gove and Katy Balls. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

How do you solve a problem like Elon? We have spent much of the past week talking on the podcast about Labour vs Musk, and the tech billionaire’s vocal criticism of how the government is dealing with the grooming gang scandal. But Reform UK are having their own issues with the volatile owner of X. There have been questions over whether Musk could still bankroll the party after he called for Farage to step down following a disagreement over Musk’s support for the far-right activist Tommy Robinson – but in the last 24 hours, it seems the tech billionaire has rowed back a little on his stance and has returned to reposting Farage’s tweets. Musk seems to be playing those on the right of British politics against each other, dishing out endorsements – retweets – to a different politician each day. Can anyone trust Musk? And what has the response to the grooming gang scandal revealed about parties on both sides of British politics? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Tim Stanley, columnist for the Telegraph. Produced by Megan McElroy, Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson.

In a speech this morning, the Prime Minister unveiled his plans to tackle the NHS backlog, and hit back at comments Elon Musk has made regarding grooming gangs, the government's response to them, and about the Prime Minister’s own role in their prosecution. Whilst the Prime Minister's speech was plagued by the familiar platitudes about the NHS it was shortly followed by the government's NHS elective recovery plan, which does include some interesting proposals to shift healthcare away from hospitals – for example, giving cash incentives to GPs each time they consult with a specialist to see if there is an alternative to hospital visits. Is this plan the miracle cure the NHS needs? And will Starmer's robust response to Elon Musk finally put their spat to bed? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Heale. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.