How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump’s first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China’s view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Mr. Waters also speaks to how China may approach the new Trump administration and assesses that China is waiting to see the first moves from the United States and whether those signal that Trump is willing to bargain with Xi or if the United States will take a greater turn towards unilateral decoupling. Finally, Mr. Waters speaks to possibility of NATO expanding into the Indo-Pacific and the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, and what these changing geopolitics will mean for the future of the US-China relationship. Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Drawing on his decades of experience in the US foreign service, Rick leads the firm's China expertise and client offerings. His research interests include China's global and regional diplomacy, US-China relations, and China's domestic political economy. Rick joined Eurasia Group after a 27-year career as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan. Rick also held multiple roles at the US embassy in Beijing—including during the period between the accidental US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Hainan Island incident in 2001.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi’s unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi’s focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China’s internal dynamics and its foreign policy. Mr. Czin shares his assessment that China has arrived as a defining force in the geopolitical environment and in 10 to 20 years China will continue to have the capacity and the will to be a formidable rival to the United States. Finally, he discusses what he sees as China’s view of the United State’s internal dynamics and the upcoming presidential election. Mr. Jonathan A. Czin is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community’s top China experts. Jon led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China, including all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues. He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. He holds a master’s in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.    Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project.   Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy’s Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside’s corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT.   Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Russia and China. Dr. Kendall-Taylor discusses the broader geopolitical factors driving Russia’s desire to strengthen ties with China. She analyzes Russia’s increasing dependence on China in the context of its war in Ukraine, and recent reports that China may be providing lethal aid to Russia. Dr. Kendall-Taylor also explores the dynamics between Putin and Xi, highlighting how their close relationship shapes the strategic coordination between the two countries. Finally, Dr. Kendall-Taylor addresses potential challenges for Europe and the United States in responding to this growing alignment. Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, specializing in national security issues, particularly regarding Russia, authoritarianism, and the transatlantic alliance. She previously served as deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She also served as a senior analyst at the CIA, focusing on Russia, autocratic regimes, and democratic decline. Outside CNAS, she is a distinguished practitioner in grand strategy at Yale’s Jackson School, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Her work has appeared in numerous prominent journals including Journal of Peace Research, Democratization, Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, The Washington Quarterly, and Foreign Policy. She holds a BA from Princeton and a PhD from UCLA. Kendall-Taylor was also a Fulbright scholar in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Michael Davidson joins us to discuss China’s energy security. Dr. Davidson gives an overview of China’s energy landscape and compares it to that of other countries, such as the United States. He explains how China’s energy priorities have evolved throughout the last decade, especially in response to factors such as climate change and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Davidson emphasizes the effects that the 2021 and 2022 power shortages in China had on senior Chinese leadership and the resulting elevation in importance of energy security, specifically in the power sector. Additionally, Dr. Davidson discusses China’s challenge in balancing energy security with its goals of reducing emissions and the resulting expanded definition of what energy security encompasses. Finally, Dr. Davidson speaks to how China’s evolving energy security affects its foreign policy and the potential risks for the U.S. and other countries in collaborating with China on clean energy.   Dr. Michael Davidson is an assistant professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of the Jacobs School of Engineering. Michael Davidson’s research focuses on the engineering implications and institutional conflicts inherent in deploying renewable energy at scale. He is particularly interested in China’s energy system, which he has studied for over 15 years. Dr. Davidson was previously the U.S.-China Climate Policy Coordinator for the environmental nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). He was a Public Intellectuals Program Fellow at the National Committee of U.S.-China Relations, is a current fellow with the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations, and a former Fulbright Scholar. Prior to joining UC San Diego, Davidson was a postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program. He received his Ph.D. in engineering systems and a masters in Technology and Policy from MIT.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick joins us to discuss recent Sino-Russian activities and what they mean for the overall China-Russia relationship. Dr. Wishnick analyzes the May 2024 Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing, noting that the joint statement the two countries released had significant areas of continuity and some areas of change compared to 2023. She then analyzes the meeting between the two leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the nearly half a dozen military exercises the two countries engaged in in July and August 2024. Dr. Wishnick emphasizes that the recent surge of China-Russia military exercises are meant to signal China-Russia political and strategic coordination, with some scheduled in advance as part of their normal annual exercise plans and others scheduled in response to U.S. activities. Finally, Dr. Wishnick shares her predictions for developments within Sino-Russian relations in the coming months.  Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick is a Senior Research Scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division at CNA. She was a Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University from 2005-2024 and the Coordinator of MSU’s Asian Studies Undergraduate Minor from 2010-2019. Since 2002, she has been a research scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute. She previously taught undergraduate and graduate courses in international relations, Chinese politics, and Chinese foreign policy at Barnard College, Columbia College, and SIPA. Dr. Wishnick has dual regional expertise on China and Russia and is an expert on Chinese foreign policy, Sino-Russian relations, Northeast Asian and Central Asian security, and Arctic geopolitics.  She received a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University, an MA in Russian and East European Studies from Yale University, and a BA from Barnard College. She speaks Mandarin, Russian, and French.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. I-Chung Lai and Professor Jacques deLisle to unpack China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law and its important implications for cross-Strait relations—the topic of an international conference co-hosted by CSIS and Prospect Foundation in early August 2024. Dr. Lai dissects the legislation’s nine articles, particularly Article 8’s conditions in which China can employ ‘non-peaceful means’ toward Taiwan. Professor deLisle speaks to the implications of the recent “22 Opinions” that China released to strengthen the Anti-Secession Law. The 22 Opinions criminalizes support for Taiwan independence and could be used even against foreign individuals who are not from China or Taiwan. However, Professor deLisle suggests that international recognition and enforcement of these laws would raise human rights concerns. Finally, Dr. Lai and Professor deLisle offer their recommendations on how the United States, Taiwan, and the international community can effectively respond to China’s actions.  Dr. I-Chung Lai is the president of Prospect Foundation, a Taiwan-based think tank. Prior to joining the Prospect Foundation, he held several prominent positions within the Democratic Progressive Party, serving as executive director of the DPP Mission to the United States and as the director general of the Department of International Affairs. He has also worked as a special assistant with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Tokyo.  Professor Jacques deLisle is a Stephen A. Cozen professor of law and professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania. His research and teaching focus on contemporary Chinese law and politics, including legal reform and its relationship to economic reform and political change in China, the international status of Taiwan and cross-Strait relations, China’s engagement with the international order, legal and political issues in Hong Kong under Chinese rule, and U.S.-China relations. DeLisle is the director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, co-director of the Center for Asian Law, and director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the major themes from China's long-anticipated Third Plenum and what it signaled for China’s economic trajectory in the coming decade. Dr. Kennedy highlights the continuity that the Third Plenum presented, with no drastic economic measures introduced. However, he underscores the idea that Chinese leadership’s statist approach may pose additional challenges in addressing domestic issues. Dr. Kennedy also discusses China’s linkage between national security and economic progress and its shift toward high-tech development to build resilience and decrease foreign reliance. Finally, Dr. Kennedy provides predictions on where China’s economic growth will be in the next two years.  Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has traveled to China for 36 years. Ongoing focuses include China’s innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of publications, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, featuring on-the-ground voices from China, and the Trustee Chair co-runs the Big Data China initiative, which introduces pathbreaking scholarly research to the policy community.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Victor Cha joins us to discuss his major takeaways from the June 2024 Putin-Kim summit and the significance of North Korea and Russia’s new mutual defense clause for the international community. Dr. Cha dissects how North Korea's relationships with Russia and China have evolved over time and notes that the new defense clause gives North Korea an opportunity to leverage its closer relationship with Russia to its advantage vis-a-vis North Korea-China relations. Dr. Cha explains the global and regional implications of the mutual defense agreement. Finally, Dr. Cha discusses his recommendations for how the United States, South Korea, and other and allies and partners should address this growing relationship.  *This podcast was recorded prior to the 2024 NATO DC Summit.  Dr. Victor Cha is a Senior Vice President for Asia and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. He is professor of government and holds the D.S. Song-KF Chair in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service (SFS) at Georgetown University. In July 2019, he was appointed vice dean for faculty and graduate affairs in SFS. While working for the White House between 2004-2007, Dr. Cha was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council. He was responsible primarily for Japan, the Korean peninsula, Australia/New Zealand, and Pacific Island nation affairs. Dr. Cha was also the deputy head of delegation for the United States at the Six-Party Talks in Beijing. He is the author of five books, including the award-winning Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Aaron Glasserman joins us to discuss China’s ethnic minority policies. Dr. Glasserman speaks to the makeup of China’s 55 ethnic minority populations and the evolution of China’s policies towards the groups. Dr. Glasserman discusses the idea that the CCP’s recognition and treatment of these groups is in large part an effort to reinforce its historic identity. He underscores President Xi Jinping’s efforts to prioritize the Han identity and facilitate ethnic fusion into one common entity through assimilation and sinicization of other minorities with the Han. Finally, Dr. Glasserman shares how these ethnic minority groups have not been able to organize collectively and pushback against CCP policies. He assesses that China’s policies towards its ethnic minorities have not significantly impacted China’s international image or foreign policy.  Aaron Glasserman is a current Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies and a former postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University’s Paul and Martha Withes Center on Contemporary China. He earned his PhD from Columbia University in 2021, with his dissertation focusing on the history of the Hui Muslim ethnic group in China. Dr. Glasserman has written for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The China Quarterly, ChinaFile, Project Syndicate, and other publications, with areas of expertise in China’s ethnic politics and Islam in China. He is a current Wilson China Fellow at the Wilson Center.