The gas turbine crunch

Weather forecasting drives billions of economic decisions — from grid operations to evacuation planning. Better forecasting could improve supply chain planning, disaster warnings, and renewable integration. The industry has decades of satellite observations and ground measurements, making it ripe for AI-driven advancements. And it’s already happening. But how exactly does AI get used in weather forecasting, and how does it actually lead to improvements? In this episode, Shayle talks to Peter Battaglia, senior director of research at Google DeepMind’s sustainability program, which launched a new AI-powered weather forecasting model in November 2025. They cover topics like: Why precipitation is so much harder to predict than temperature  How the weather industry works, with governments creating global models and private companies refining them for specific use cases What AI models can see that traditional supercomputer simulations can’t Novel sources of data like cell phones, door bells, and social media Resources: Latitude Media: Where are we on using AI to predict the weather?   Latitude Media: Could AI-fueled weather forecasts boost renewable energy production?   Catalyst: Specialized AI brains for physical industry   Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by Uplight. Uplight activates energy customers and their connected devices to generate, shift, and save energy—improving grid resilience and energy affordability while accelerating decarbonization. Learn how Uplight is helping utilities unlock flexible load at scale at uplight.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate, energy, and infrastructure leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

Demand for turbines is growing fast, but so are lead times — causing serious headaches for developers and even cancellations. In Texas, one of six cancelled projects cited “equipment procurement constraints” as the reasons for its withdrawal.  Lead times are stretching to four years and sometimes more. Costs are climbing. So what’s behind the bottleneck? In this episode, Shayle talks to Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, a consulting firm focused on the turbine market. Shayle and Anthony cover topics like:  Why previous boom-bust cycles in turbine manufacturing have left the industry skittish — and why Anthony says leaders are approaching this new peak with “guarded optimism” The competing demands on the turbine supply chain, including from power, oil and gas, and aerospace industries How lead times have ballooned to four years and, in some cases, even longer Factors affecting the market beyond load growth, like renewables, storage, affordable gas, and coal retirements How investment in tech innovation has raised turbine efficiency  How the industry is preparing for hydrogen — if hydrogen scales up Resources: Latitude Media: Engie’s pulled project highlights the worsening economics of gas Latitude Media: High costs, delays prompt withdrawal of five more Texas gas plants Power Magazine: Gas Power's Boom Sparks a Turbine Supply Crunch Marketplace: Will we have enough natural gas turbines to power AI data centers? CTVC: 🌎 Gas turbine gridlock #236 Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com. Catalyst is supported by Third Way. Third Way’s new PACE study surveyed over 200 clean energy professionals to pinpoint the non-cost barriers delaying clean energy deployment today and offers practical solutions to help get projects over the finish line. Read Third Way's full report, and learn more about their PACE initiative, at www.thirdway.org/pace.

Today virtually all AI compute takes place in centralized data centers, driving the demand for massive power infrastructure. But as workloads shift from training to inference, and AI applications become more latency-sensitive (autonomous vehicles, anyone?), there‘s another pathway: migrating a portion of inference from centralized computing to the edge. Instead of a gigawatt-scale data center in a remote location, we might see a fleet of smaller data centers clustered around an urban core. Some inference might even shift to our devices.  So how likely is a shift like this, and what would need to happen for it to substantially reshape AI power? In this episode, Shayle talks to Dr. Ben Lee, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as a visiting researcher at Google. Shayle and Ben cover topics like: The three main categories of compute: hyperscale, edge, and on-device Why training is unlikely to move from hyperscale The low latency demands of new applications like autonomous vehicles How generative AI is training us to tolerate longer latencies  Why distributed inference doesn‘t face the same technical challenges as distributed training Why consumer devices may limit model capability  Resources: ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review: A Case Study of Environmental Footprints for Generative AI Inference: Cloud versus Edge Internet of Things and Cyber-Physical Systems: Edge AI: A survey Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting⁠ ⁠⁠BloomEnergy.com⁠. Catalyst is supported by Third Way. Third Way’s new PACE study surveyed over 200 clean energy professionals to pinpoint the non-cost barriers delaying clean energy deployment today and offers practical solutions to help get projects over the finish line. Read Third Way's full report, and learn more about their PACE initiative, at www.thirdway.org/pace.

Big construction projects in the U.S. are notoriously unpredictable, often finishing over budget and behind schedule. Part of the problem is the inherent complexity of these kinds of projects, like data centers and first-of-a-kind plants. But there’s another problem: the companies that actually build these projects — called EPC firms for engineering, procurement, and construction — often lack strong incentives to control costs or deliver on time.  That’s the thesis behind Unlimited Industries, a new startup focused on using AI to develop multiple project designs upfront and reduce project risks. So what would it take to actually cut costs and shorten construction timelines? In this episode, Shayle talks to Alex Modon, co-founder and CEO of Unlimited Industries. The company recently announced a $12 million fundraise as it emerged from stealth. Shayle and Alex cover topics like: How EPC incentives and contract structures drive cost overruns Why bespoke projects prevent learning and standardization The role software and AI can play in design and risk reduction EPC Managing risks – including geopolitics, contractor reliability, and supply chains Resources: Catalyst: FOAK tales The Green Blueprint: Shortening the nuclear development cycle from decades to years   Catalyst: The cost of nuclear   Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com.

The bottleneck holding back AI is a scarcity of power, or so goes the story. That may be true — and plenty of reporting backs it up — but different actors in the space face varying incentives to play up or play down that narrative.  So what incentives are at play, and how do they shape each player's story? In this episode, Shayle talks to Shanu Mathew, senior vice president and portfolio manager-analyst for U.S, sustainable equity at Lazard. Last month on X, he posted a breakdown of the actors — including hyperscalers, chip makers, utilities, and others – and how the different incentives they face shape how they talk about energy and AI. They cover topics like: Hyperscalers’ mixed incentives: the benefits of building their own capacity vs encouraging others to overbuild Why equipment makers, chipmakers, and land developers benefit from talking up the bottleneck to boost demand for their services How independent power producers and gas players benefit from high prices How the power-bottleneck narrative has shifted over time Resources: Latitude Media: ERCOT’s large load queue has nearly quadrupled in a single year   Latitude Media: The power bottleneck is changing data center financing Latitude Media: Early-stage data centers are driving up US power demand forecasts   Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com. Catalyst is supported by Third Way. Third Way’s new PACE study surveyed over 200 clean energy professionals to pinpoint the non-cost barriers delaying clean energy deployment today and offers practical solutions to help get projects over the finish line. Read Third Way's full report, and learn more about their PACE initiative, at ⁠www.thirdway.org/pace⁠.

After years of stalled transmission buildout, there are new signs of progress. Earlier this month, SPP approved $8.6 billion in transmission projects across 14 states. Major plans are emerging in MISO, PJM, and ERCOT. Despite the DOE canceling its loan guarantee, the Grain Belt Express is still moving forward. And regardless of court battles, so is the New England Clean Energy Connect.  Are these signs that the U.S. could start building transmission at scale again? In this episode, Shayle talks to Rob Gramlich, founder and president of Grid Strategies. He and Shayle cover topics like: Why Rob says the DOE’s efforts to fast-track large-load interconnection is a positive sign for transmission buildout The recent buildout of 880 miles of transmission and why it may look better than it is Why transmission hasn’t benefited from data center investment  Specific projects, including SPP’s transmission backbone and the Grain Belt Express Rob’s outlook on buildout over the coming year The uncertain future of permitting reform despite bipartisan support Resources: Catalyst: Unpacking DOE’s proposal to transform data center interconnection    Latitude Media: How the Grain Belt Express lost its LPO loan   E&E News: Data center growth cited in defense of MISO transmission plan  Fill out our short podcast listener survey for a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift card. Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com.Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com.

Across the country, people are asking the same question: why is it so hard to build in America? From transmission lines to clean energy factories, projects are taking longer, costs are rising, and frustration is growing. But in New Mexico, two cabinet secretaries are trying to show that it doesn’t have to be this way. Together, Economic Development Secretary Rob Black and Environment Secretary Jim Kenney are helping redefine how state agencies work with industry. Their model blends speed, access, and careful environmental oversight to help companies build more quickly without cutting corners. Together, they’re using that model to attract billion-dollar fusion and geothermal projects, expand water and infrastructure investments, and deploy the state’s $65 billion sovereign wealth fund directly into advanced energy and deep-tech manufacturing. In this episode, Stephen Lacey talks with Rob Black and Jim Kenney about how New Mexico is rewriting the rules of economic development, and what their partnership can teach the rest of America about how to make government work again. This is a partner episode, produced in collaboration with the New Mexico Economic Development Department, which works to expand opportunity through innovation, infrastructure, and investment across the state.

A few years ago, industry and political leaders embraced hydrogen as a solution to a laundry list of hard-to-abate decarbonization challenges — steel production, ammonia production, and more. But hydrogen failed to come down in costs and policymakers pulled back support. Ultimately, the bubble burst.  So what does it take to drive down the costs of low-carbon hydrogen and rebuild momentum? In this episode, Shayle talks to Raffi Garabedian, co-founder and CEO of Electric Hydrogen. (Shayle is on the board of Electric Hydrogen and Energy Impact Partners, where Shayle is a partner, invests in the company). Shayle and Raffi cover topics like: Why the hype bubble burst: political pullback, high renewables costs driven by AI demand, and high CapEx  The real cost problem: Why engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) costs have remained persistently high Competing approaches: Why Electric Hydrogen chose supersized electrolyzers over modular units The China question: Why hydrogen’s EPC costs will limit the impact of cheap Chinese electrolyzers Real numbers: Realistic cost targets for fossil parity and Electric Hydrogen’s current pricing Where hydrogen wins: Markets where Raffi says green hydrogen can achieve fossil parity by the early 2030s, including Brazilian fertilizer Resources: Latitude Media: is 45v guidance killing green hydrogen production? The Green Blueprint: Electric Hydrogen’s bet on supersized electrolyzers Latitude Media: Electric Hydrogen is building through the market downturn   Latitude Media: Hydrogen’s narrow pathway to positive climate impacts   Latitude Media: Why the Electric Hydrogen-Ambient merger is a sign of things to come Fill out our short podcast listener survey for a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift card. Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com. Catalyst is supported by Third Way. Third Way’s new PACE study surveyed over 200 clean energy professionals to pinpoint the non-cost barriers delaying clean energy deployment today and offers practical solutions to help get projects over the finish line. Read Third Way's full report, and learn more about their PACE initiative, at www.thirdway.org/pace.

A big problem with using artificial intelligence to discover new materials? It struggles to predict beyond its training data. That means AI might be better at optimizing known materials than discovering entirely new ones — like a room temperature superconductor or carbon-capture sorbents.  But since we last covered the topic in September 2024, a few things have changed. OpenAI released its powerful O1 reasoning model. Large language models have also gotten better at math, physics, and coding. And lab automation — robots mixing liquids and powders, running characterization tests — has improved, allowing for a higher volume of experiments.  So, can these improvements overcome AI’s training data problem? In this episode, Shayle talks to Ekin Dogus Cubuk, cofounder of Periodic Labs, which raised $300 million seed round in September. Last year, Dogus took a more cautious view on using AI for materials discovery. Now though, he’s convinced there’s a clearer path forward for physical science research and development, especially materials discovery. Shayle and Dogus cover topics like: Creating experimental and synthetic data to overcome AI’s limitations of predicting beyond its training set Why we should focus on breakthrough discoveries over easier, incremental wins The different roles humans and AI play in the discovery process Period’s focus on automated experimental labs using AI-generated hypotheses Resources: Catalyst: Can AI revolutionize materials discovery?   Latitude Media: This ‘superintelligence platform’ just raised $200m in seed funding   Latitude Media: Can AI get us closer to fusion?   The New York Times: Top A.I. Researchers Leave OpenAI, Google and Meta for New Start-Up Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com. Catalyst is supported by Third Way. Third Way’s new PACE study surveyed over 200 clean energy professionals to pinpoint the non-cost barriers delaying clean energy deployment today and offers practical solutions to help get projects over the finish line. Read Third Way's full report, and learn more about their PACE initiative, at ⁠www.thirdway.org/pace⁠.

Last Thursday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to consider rulemaking to fast-track interconnection for large loads — as long as they agree to be curtailable or colocate with dispatchable generation. So what does this proposal actually mean for interconnection?  In this episode, Shayle talks with Allison Clements, former FERC commissioner and current partner with digital infrastructure advisory firm ASG. Allison is also principal of 804 Advisory. Shayle also talks with Tyler Norris, doctoral student at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. Allison, Tyler, and Shayle cover topics like: How the proposal would standardize interconnection procedures for certain large loads, with study periods no longer than 60 days  The jurisdictional shift: asserting federal authority over a process traditionally under state purview   The types of eligible loads, including traditional data centers as well as ones that colocate with generation, also known as “hybrid facilities” The duration of flexibility and whether 2-hour, 4-hour, or longer durations are needed for curtailment Whether flexibility resources should be behind-the-meter or front-of-meter The potential disadvantages for bring-your-own-supply or bring-your-own-VPP Resources: Latitude Media: Wright directs FERC to fast track large load interconnection   Latitude Media: How the world’s first flexible AI factory will work in tandem with the grid   Latitude Media: OpenAI pushes the White House to invest in the grid to compete with China   E3: Demand Response as a Capacity Resource in SPP’s Era of Data Center Growth  Canary Media: In a first, a data center is using a big battery to get online faster  Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting⁠ ⁠⁠BloomEnergy.com⁠.