Episode 50: Trump, China and Iran

Suzanne Raine and John Nilsson-Wright talk with Professor John Delury, Sinologist, Korea expert and currently a visiting professor in Rome, about the current state of policy under Donald Trump towards the United States' key allies in Northeast Asia, the Republic of Korea and Japan. How resilient and reliable is cooperation between leaders in Washington, Tokyo and Seoul in confronting geopolitical risks in Asia, particularly the challenge of a closer partnership between North Korea, Russia and China.”This podcast is part of a larger Centre for Geopolitics project, Alliances in Alignment, which is supported by the Korea Foundation and examines the future of trilateral cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan.

Ali and Suzanne are joined by John Nilsson-Wright, who was in Seoul in early December when President Yoon Suk-yeol moved to declare martial law, to discuss the recent tumultuous events in South Korea and the implications for the Korean peninsula and the wider region.

Ali and Suzanne take stock of the dramatic events in Syria and the implications of the collapse of the Assad regime for Iran, looking at themes common across many revolutions and possible areas to watch.

Ali and Suzanne are joined by Professor Bill Hurst to look at the implications of Trump's election win on US policy positions towards China and Iran. How might China navigate what America does next?Why are some in Iran secretly pleased Trump has won? And will the next US President have the expertise on China and Iran he needs?

Ali and Suzanne take stock on the contest between Iran and Israel, especially considering the impact in Iran of recent setbacks. What might be the consequences domestically and in terms of the conflict?

Suzanne Raine is joined by Dr John Nilssen-Wright and Alexandra Leonzini to learn more about the story behind a recent North Korean viral TikTok hit. Alexandra and John explore the role of music in the creation and strengthening of North Korean identity, explaining on the way how the society functions, the change in attitude since the meeting of Kim Jong Un and President Trump, and signs to watch for in the future.

What happens next in Iran? Ali Ansari and Suzanne Raine look at the consequences of the death of President Raisi, and discuss the forthcoming Iranian elections on 28 June.  Who will stand, and how will the process play out?  Who decides and how much does it matter anyway?

Suzanne and Ali look back over the events of April -May 2024, including the first direct military exchange between Israel and Iran, and ask where this leaves us. How are we to judge the failure of the Iranian firing of missiles and projectiles towards Israel? What does this mean for the state of Iran itself, and for its reputation and control of its proxies? Where might Iran go from here?

Suzanne and Ali talk with Ciaran Martin, the former head of the National Cyber Security Centre on the threats – real and imagined – posed by the rapid transformation of our digital world, the role of state and non-state actors, and how we need to rise to the challenge of revolutionary change in telecommunications technology.

Ali and Suzanne are joined by Renad Mansour and Zmkan Ali of Chatham House to discuss their new report on cross-border conflict. Why is Sinjar, stuck between Iraq and Syria, enmired in other ongoing conflicts?  And can anything be done to improve the situation in Sinjar while those conflicts are unresolved? Renad and Zmkan argue that unless the non-state armed groups active in Sinjar are involved in negotiations about the future of Sinjar, then there will be no lasting resolution.