2025 Wrap-Up: Energy, Policy, and Predictions Revisited

We’re closing out the year with our final podcast of 2025, looking back at the biggest stories and revisiting the predictions we made at the start of the year. How did we do? 2025 delivered volatility and plenty of surprises, along with a long list of developments with real consequences for energy, both clean energy and traditional oil and gas. We cover major policy shifts, including the election of the Mark Carney Liberals in Canada, the introduction of Bill C-5, the launch of the Major Projects Office, the Ottawa–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and growing political support for LNG. We also review changes in the United States, including tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), which rolled back many of America’s generous clean energy subsidies.  Another recurring theme this year was the surge in expectations for AI data center electricity demand—including in Canada, where three proposed projects in Alberta are moving closer to a final investment decision.It’s been a whirlwind year. Jackie and Peter wish everyone a wonderful holiday break, and we’ll return in 2026.Content referenced in this podcast:  The Hub.ca, Have we really hit peak oil? Please don’t count on it (December 2, 2025) National Security Strategy of the United States of America (November 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Canada’s first cargo of LNG set sail from Kitimat, British Columbia, on June 30, 2025. This week on the podcast, Chris Cooper, President and CEO of LNG Canada, joins us to reflect on that milestone, walk through the project’s progress, and share his view of Canada’s long-term LNG opportunity. Jackie and Peter asked Chris a wide-ranging set of questions, including: What was going through your mind as the first carrier departed? What does the workforce on-site look like today, and are workers living locally or in camps? What are the practical logistics of bringing LNG tankers in and out of the facility and navigating the Douglas Channel? Is the plant operating at full capacity yet? How would you characterize the current level of support from the B.C. provincial government? How significant was Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to Asia to sell Canada’s potential for LNG growth, and what did it mean to see LNG Canada Phase 2 included among the projects that were referred to the Major Projects Office? Finally, how does Canadian LNG stack up against other global supply sources, and what do you see as the outlook for worldwide LNG demand? Content referenced in this podcast:Steven Guilbeault Speaks to CTV’s Power Play with Vassy Kapelos (December 4, 2025) Clean Prosperity study that the Federal-Alberta MOU can unlock $90 billion in low-carbon investment if governments follow through (December 4, 2025) Photos of the LNG Canada work camp at Cedar Valley Lodge Shell LNG Outlook 2025Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

A memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Alberta and the Canadian federal government was signed on November 27, 2025. It declared a shared goal of making Canada a global energy superpower by building one or more privately financed oil pipelines, co-owned with Indigenous Peoples, to ship at least 1 million barrels per day of low-emission Alberta bitumen, prioritizing routes to Asian markets, and submitting an application to the Major Projects Office by July 1.   Building the pipeline requires building the large-scale oil sands Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Alberta and the federal government will also engage with the Government of British Columbia on the pipeline initiative. Among other commitments, the MOU pledges to suspend the Canadian Electricity Regulations (CER) as they apply to Alberta and to scrap the proposed nationwide oil and gas emissions cap for producers. Further details are expected to be finalized by April 1. To unpack this tectonic shift in Alberta–Ottawa relations—along with the first wave of media coverage and the deal’s potential benefits for Canada —Peter and Jackie are joined by guest Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. Content referenced in this podcast:Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (November 27, 2025) Angus Reid Institute Polling on Support and Opposition for Alberta-BC Pipeline (November 27, 2025) CBC At Issues Panel on Carney’s Alberta Pipeline Partnership (November 28, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, we dig into a new report on renewable growth in Canada, “Canada’s Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2025”, a joint study by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors and the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA). To unpack the findings and the broader state of renewables in Canada, we’re joined by Leonard Kula (Vice President of Policy – Eastern Canada and Utility Affairs, CanREA), Ahmed Hanafy (Partner, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors), and Vittoria Bellissimo (President and CEO, CanREA). Peter and Jackie asked our guests: What are your expectations for growth in Canadian electricity demand through 2035 and 2050? How does demand from AI data centers contribute? As intermittent renewable generation rises, do you see technical limits, such as reliability, that put a ceiling on growth?  Do project developers source the wind turbines and solar modules from China, and should Canada push for more domestic content? Do renewables face issues with “not in my backyard” (NIMBYism)? Can renewables contribute meaningfully to meeting the fast-growing demand from data centers, which need near-perfect levels of reliability? Do you expect renewable energy growth in Alberta, given the market changes that have weakened the investment case?  Content referenced in this podcast includes:Bell: Go time! Danielle Smith and Mark Carney agree to a pipeline deal - Calgary Herald (November 22, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter break down the Canadian government’s latest release of nation-building projects. The second tranche includes a major LNG export development, Ksi Lisims LNG, along with a new electricity transmission line in Northwest B.C., three mining projects, and plans for a Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor. They then turn to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, which reintroduces the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) after a five-year hiatus. The CPS examines how global energy demand evolves under existing policies and shows oil and gas consumption continuing to grow through 2050. The report also highlights the energy requirements of rapidly expanding AI data centers. Jackie and Peter debate how this surge in load will be met—and which energy sources are most likely to power it. Content referenced in this podcast includes:Prime Minister Carney announces second tranche of nation-building projects referred to the Major Projects Office (November 13, 2025) IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 (November 12, 2025) Open Circuit Podcast (November 7, 2025) The Stargate Project (January 2025) How Meta’s Data Centers Drive Economic Growth Across the US (November 7, 2025) US electric vehicle sales slow as Trump champions petrol (November 13, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter share their insights on Canada’s 2025 federal budget, released last week and expected to pass on November 17. They also briefly introduce the topic of COP30, which started the day they recorded, and Bill Gates’ recent memo on climate.  They discuss several aspects of the budget, including the size of the deficit and debt, government plans to reduce day-to-day operating expenses, and several tax measures—notably, new Productivity Super Deduction and the updated accelerated capital cost depreciation rules for LNG, which are supportive, but still less generous than the Productivity Super Reduction. They also examine the introduction of new investment tax credits (ITCs) for clean energy. These incentives were largely anticipated, having been announced in the previous budget but never enacted. A major focus is the proposed Canada Climate Competitiveness Strategy, which aims to strengthen industrial carbon pricing while preventing carbon leakage. Jackie and Peter explore related policy commitments, including maintaining methane-reduction regulations and the Clean Electricity Regulation, along with signals of possible flexibility around the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap. However, they note that such flexibility may depend on the deployment at scale of carbon capture and storage, which remains uncertain.Content referenced in this podcast includes: Canada Budget 2025 Bill Gates Memo “Three tough truths about climate”  (October 2025) The Hub.ca article by Trevor Tombe “There’s a big gap between rhetoric and reality” (November 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, our guest is Jason Chee-Aloy, Managing Director at Power Advisory LLC. The firm provides expert consulting services in the electricity sector across Canada and the United States. A new report from CanREA and Dunsky forecasts a rapid build-out of new electricity generation across the country. With this growth forecast in mind, Jason shares his insights on several major new electricity generation projects shaping Canada’s power landscape — including the planned hydropower dam expansion along the Churchill River by Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. Jason, Jackie, and Peter also discussed the proposed Wind West project in Nova Scotia, where the province estimates its offshore wind potential could exceed 60 GW of capacity, with up to 40 GW of dependable output.  In addition, Jason provides an update on Alberta’s ongoing electricity market redesign — the Alberta Restructured Energy Market (REM) — following the release of the Final Design document from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) in August. Content referenced in this podcast:  Canada’s Renewable Energy Outlook 2025 by CanREA and Dunsky  Wind West Plan by the Nova Scotia Government  Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) Restructure Energy Market Final Design (August 2025) Alberta Electricity System Operator “MPA Independent Assessment of the REM Design” (August 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter begin with a roundup of the latest developments in Canadian energy. They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney’s remarks at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, where he suggested that Canada could export up to 50 million tonnes of LNG per year (about 6.5 Bcf/d) by 2030, with the potential to double that by 2040. They then turn to the upcoming federal budget, which is expected to include details about Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Plan. Another key topic is President Trump’s decision to suspend trade talks with Canada following controversy over Ontario’s free-trade advertisement. Next, the hosts reflect on Peter’s recent commentary in The Hub, titled “Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” Finally, Jackie talks about her recent appearance on a CBC podcast that explored whether Canada can build pipelines while fighting climate change. She explains why she felt the show’s coverage was not balanced and shares her broader concerns about how climate and energy topics are often framed in mainstream Canadian media.Content referenced in this podcast: The Globe and Mail, “Carney’s climate vision is to deprioritize emissions targets, focus on economic advantages” (October 14, 2025) The Hub “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what’s next for the oilsands?” (October 4, 2025) CAPP Data Centre, “The Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas,” see slide 23 titled “Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry | 2024” Government of Canada Publications, “Public Opinion Research on the National Adaptation Strategy,” (March 2025), see page 6: “A vast majority of people living in Canada (84%) consider climate change an important issue” Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) CBC Ideas Podcast “Can we have new pipelines and curb climate change too?” October 7, 2025Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Oil pipeline politics are once again in high gear in Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is advancing plans for a 1 MMB/d pipeline to the West Coast of British Columbia, while B.C. Premier David Eby remains firmly opposed. At the same time, during a recent trip to Washington, Mark Carney and Donald Trump reportedly discussed the potential revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, which, if completed, would carry Canadian crude south to the United States. To help us unpack the complexities of Canada’s pipeline politics, our guest this week is the Honourable Jason Kenney — former federal MP and cabinet minister (first elected in 1997 and re-elected five times), former Premier of Alberta, and now a Special Advisor at Bennett Jones. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Jason Kenney: How did you manage to bring together Alberta’s fractured conservative movement, and do you think that unity could unravel given today’s polarized political climate? What are your thoughts on the “Alberta Next” initiative? What’s your assessment of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first six months in office and his efforts, such as Bill C-5, to accelerate infrastructure development? Under the Canadian constitution, can B.C. block an oil pipeline through the province? Why were you disappointed by the federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister, Tim Hodgson’s, comments about B.C.’s attempts to block the oil pipeline? Content referenced in this podcast: Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) Jason Kenney’s X account Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

Canada must raise its level of ambition to compete in today’s rapidly shifting geoeconomic and geopolitical landscape. So far on the podcast, we’ve focused on how diversifying oil and gas exports can strengthen Canada’s power and influence. This week, we turn our attention to another strategic sector — mining. Our guest this week is Photinie Koutsavlis, Vice President of Economic Affairs and Climate Change at the Mining Association of Canada. She joins us to discuss the current state of Canada’s mining industry. Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Photinie Koutsavlis:  How large is Canada’s mining sector, and what are its main products? Since the January 2020 announcement of the Canada–U.S. Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals, what progress has been made on the ground? Has investment and production grown — and if not, what are the main barriers? Content referenced in this podcast: The Hub.ca, “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what is next for the oil sands?” (October 4, 2025)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify