Lula Wins: What Comes Next for Brazil?

For the first time in two decades, Canada has released a new national security plan, setting out its priorities at a pivotal moment of geopolitical change and a shifting world order. As Prime Minister Mark Carney seeks to diversify Canada’s international partnerships, strengthen domestic industries, navigate mounting pressure from the United States, and build a new alliance of middle powers, the plan signals a potential shift in how Canada approaches its security, and its role on the global stage, while reiterating its commitment to North American defense. To help unpack what the plan means, why it's being issued now, and its relevance for the United States, Americas Program Acting Director and Senior Fellow Christopher Hernandez-Roy is joined by Vincent Rigby, Americas Program Senior Adviser and Canada’s former National Security and Intelligence Advisor to the Prime Minister (2020–2021).

In a stunning upset, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva has won the Brazilian presidential election, defeating presumed frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro, bucking a recent right-ward shift in presidential elections in Latin America. The win marks a historic fourth presidency for Lula, who now faces a difficult domestic political landscape and a complex relationship with the United States. To unpack these developments, Americas Program Acting Director and Senior Fellow Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Americas Program Senior Associate Thiago de Aragão. Together they explore the factors behind Lula’s unexpected victory, the key challenges confronting his administration, and what Brazil and the wider region can expect from his fourth term in office.

As great power competition between China and the United States intensifies, Latin America has emerged as a critical arena. Yet, discourse surrounding China’s expanding presence often falls into two reductive narratives, portraying Beijing as either a strategic “threat” or a benevolent “White Knight.” In reality, China’s regional strategy is multifaceted, spanning strategic investments in ports and digital infrastructure, access to critical minerals, and expanding security partnerships. To explore these dynamics, Henry Ziemer sits down with Leland Lazarus, founder and CEO of Lazarus Consulting, and author of Dragon in the Americas: China’s Power, Presence, and Regional Influence. Together, they examine China’s evolving approach to Latin America, the competition between China and Taiwan for influence, the role of illicit economies, and the broader implications of Beijing’s growing regional presence.

On October 4, Brazilians cast their votes in what is shaping up to be one of the most contentious and polarized elections in recent history. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, securing 47 percent of the vote to Lula’s 45 percent. As the two candidates prepare for a runoff on October 25, corruption scandals, economic pressures, and competing policy visions are shaping the campaign. Meanwhile, conservative gains in Congress have reshaped the broader Brazilian political landscape, raising questions about how either candidate would govern and build legislative support. To unpack these developments, Henry Ziemer sits down with Pedro Siemsen Giestas, a research analyst at Greenmantle and editor of Pindograma. Together they examine the factors behind Bolsonaro’s strong first-round performance, the political fallout from corruption allegations, and the issues and strategies likely to shape the final stretch of the campaign. 

Paraguay is often overlooked in South America, but it is beginning to occupy a more visible place in regional economic and geopolitical conversations. With a growing economy, clean energy resources, and longstanding diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the country is trying to position itself for a new stage of development—one that goes beyond commodities and turns growth into broader opportunities for Paraguayans. In this episode of 35 West, Associate Director Juliana Rubio sits down with Esteban Caballero, a political scientist and researcher at FLACSO Paraguay, to discuss Paraguay’s economic trajectory, the structural challenges that still shape its development, and the role international partners can play. They also examine how Paraguay’s relationship with Taiwan fits into a wider geopolitical context involving the United States and China.

As the United States places renewed emphasis on the Western Hemisphere, development finance is emerging as an important instrument of economic statecraft. Following Congress’s 2025 reauthorization and revitalization of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the agency is positioned to play an expanded role in mobilizing private capital, strengthening economic partnerships, and supporting strategic investments across the region. In this episode, Caroline Vik, Chief Policy Officer at the DFC, discusses the agency's evolving mission, investment opportunities across the Western Hemisphere, and the challenges shaping economic development and growth throughout the region.

In February 2025, the State Department designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) as part of a broader push from the Trump administration taking aim at organized crime in the Western Hemisphere. While U.S. rhetoric has continually stressed the threat posed by Mexican cartels, an overlooked component in this narrative is the fact that U.S. guns comprise the overwhelming majority of cartel arsenals. Still, the use of FTO designations opens new avenues for prosecuting firearms traffickers, most notably through the use of material support for terrorism charges. In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Jake Steisel, Senior Staff Attorney at Global Action on Gun Violence. Together, they analyze trends in U.S. firearms trafficking dynamics, as well as the legal implications of recent FTO designations and recent indictments of suspected gun traffickers. They also discuss the steps the United States and Mexico can take together to curb the supply of weapons to cartels. 

When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar are joined by State of Play host, Will Todman, to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America. Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026. Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025. Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025.

On July 1, the United States, Mexico, and Canada sat down to decide the future of their trade agreement. Mexico and Canada said yes, but the United States said no to the agreement at least in its current form. The agreement didn't end that day, but instead triggered a cycle of annual reviews that could run for the next 10 years. In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar sits down with Juan Carlos Baker, resident fellow with the Georgetown Americas Institute and one of the architects of the original USMCA. Together, they discuss the future of trilateral trade, recent U.S. tariff announcements, and the prospects of reaching an interim agreement before the end of the year.

In this episode of 35 West, guest host Juliana Rubio, associate director of the CSIS Americas Program, is joined by Sergio Guzmán, co-founder and director of Colombia Risk Analysis, to discuss Colombia’s 2026 presidential election and the transition ahead. They examine Abelardo de la Espriella’s narrow victory over Iván Cepeda and what the result reveals about Colombia’s polarized political landscape. The conversation also explores De la Espriella’s hardline security platform, the future of the 2016 peace agreement, concerns from civil society, the economic agenda facing the incoming administration, and how a new government in Bogotá could reshape relations with Washington, Venezuela, and the region.