Cliff Asness — Quant Origins, Value Crashes, and Market Inefficiencies

In this episode, Cliff Asness joins Tano Santos and Michael Mauboussin for a conversation that spans the evolution of quantitative investing, lessons from market crises, and the enduring tension between risk and behavioral explanations in finance. From his formative years at the University of Chicago under Gene Fama to building AQR into a quant powerhouse, Cliff reflects candidly on theory, performance, and how markets may have become less efficient in recent years.   Key Topics: Tano and Michael return from sabbatical and reflect on recent academic and classroom experiences (0:00) Overview of Cliff’s career and contributions to quant investing and academic finance (1:13) Cliff recounts his underachiever label, how standardized tests changed his path, and why he chose Penn’s M&T program (2:54) How Cliff’s coding work for Andy Lo inspired his academic path and led to Chicago (5:03) A breakdown of the 1992 and 1993 Fama-French papers, and how they reshaped asset pricing (8:45) Cliff discusses the theoretical divide between Fama and Thaler and his own evolution toward a behavioral perspective (13:08) Memories of presenting momentum to Fama, intellectual honesty, and voice-shaking dissertation defenses (17:13) Why Cliff chose Goldman over academia, his role in developing Goldman’s quant group, and the influence of LTCM (22:00) Launching in August 1998 during the Russia default; early drawdowns and lessons from the tech bubble (27:50) How quant signals hold up, risks of crowding, and the difference between short-term and long-term capacity (34:32) Momentum held, but value strategies collapsed. How AQR dealt with long underperformance (43:31) Valuation starting points can obscure long-term performance; recent decades viewed in proper context (49:22) Cliff's provocative “Less Efficient Market Hypothesis” and three key drivers: indexing, interest rates, and social media (50:54) Is passive investing weakening price discovery? Reflections on Sharp’s arithmetic and Grossman-Stiglitz (54:12) How echo chambers and meme stocks challenge traditional models of rational price formation (58:28) Why companies aren’t issuing more equity despite sky-high valuations, and the fading role of smart capital allocators (1:00:46)And much more! Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected]. Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In this episode, Michael Mauboussin, adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, hosts Phil Ruvinsky, Managing Director and Head of the Fundamental U.S. Growth Team at BlackRock. With extensive experience in the investment industry, Phil shares his journey from law to finance, discusses his investment philosophy, and explains the importance of sustainable competitive advantages. The conversation explores the evaluation of management, the impact of AI on the competitive landscape, and the nuances of portfolio construction. Phil also highlights the role of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes in investment decisions, shares his thoughts on the future of active management in an increasingly indexed market, and much more! Key Topics: Introduction to Phil's career and background (1:06) Transition from law to investment and early career challenges (2:15) Importance of business school in shaping investment philosophy (3:47) Recommended books for new team members (4:22) Utilizing competitive strategy analysis in investment decisions (5:50) Unique characteristics of technology, media, and telecom sectors (7:03) Analysis of return on invested capital in different business models (9:10) Approaches to valuation and use of different tools (10:25) Evaluating the importance of management in investment decisions (12:15) Impact of AI and generative AI on the competitive landscape (14:17) Application of AI in the investment process (18:07) Trends in market concentration and their implications (20:26) Effects of indexing and rules-based investing on markets (23:27) Corporate governance, capital allocation, and executive compensation (25:35) Differences between being an analyst and a portfolio manager (28:02) Portfolio construction and risk management (29:38) Considering macroeconomic factors in investment decisions (32:00) Concerns and excitement about the future (34:21) Phil's book recommendations (35:58) And much more! Mentioned in this Episode:   Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology by Anu Bradford Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns by Michael Mauboussin Competition Demystified: A Radically Simplified Approach to Business Strategy by Bruce Greenwald The Platform Delusion: Who Wins and Who Loses in the Age of Tech Titans by Jonathan Nee Napoleon Unleashed: A History of the Revolutionary, Emperor, and Military Genius who Reshaped Europe and Defined Modern Leadership by Aeon History Meditations by Marcus Aurelius Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected]. Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In this episode, hosts Tano Santos and Michael Mauboussin speak with Anu Bradford, the Henry L. Moses Professor of Law and International Organization at Columbia Law School, to discuss the intricate dynamics of global technology regulation. Anu is recognized for her deep expertise in international economic law. Her pivotal books "The Brussels Effect" and "Digital Empires" explore how significant regions like the US, EU, and China shape technological standards worldwide. The conversation probes the complexities of regulating big tech companies across different legal and political landscapes, highlighting the significant influence of European regulations on global markets. She also touches on the impact of regulatory practices on innovation, the challenges of enforcing extensive digital laws, and the future trajectory of global tech governance. This episode offers a comprehensive look into the power struggles and cooperative efforts that define international technology regulation and much more!     Key Topics: Introduction to Anu Bradford and her background (04:01) The unique position of the EU in global regulatory practices and its impacts (10:48) Detailed exploration of "The Brussels Effect" and its significance (12:56) Global market influence through regulatory strategies (17:02) The challenges and methodologies of tech regulation in the EU, US, and China (31:55) The role of data security and privacy in international relations and tech regulation (43:06) Future challenges and directions in global technology regulation (52:47) The preservation of liberal democracy in the digital age (54:51) Anu's book recommendations (58:56) And much more!   Mentioned in this Episode:   Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology by Anu Bradford The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World by Anu Bradford Chip War: The Quest to Dominate the World's Most Critical Technology by Chris Miller Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman High Wire: How China Regulates Big Tech and Governs Its Economy by Angela Huyue Zhang     Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In today's discussion, Jonathan Knee, a distinguished advisor at Evercore Partners and Professor of Professional Practice of Media and Technology at Columbia Business School, explores the themes of his influential work, "The Platform Delusion." Jonathan's insights stem from a rich career in both the banking and academic sectors, bringing a nuanced perspective on digital versus analog platforms, competitive strategies, and the evolving landscape of technological advancements. The conversation uncovers the myths surrounding platform businesses and their impact on the economic principles that govern market dynamics. Jonathan also discusses the implications of regulatory frameworks and their intersection with business strategies in shaping industries and so much more!     Key Topics: Jonathan Knee's background and expertise in media and technology (01:40) The initial impetus behind writing "The Platform Delusion" and the misconceptions it addresses (13:14) Definitions and the real economic underpinnings of platform businesses (17:52) Competitive advantages and the robustness of network effects in digital platforms (35:02) Exploring the sustainability of various business models within tech giants like Meta and Google against emerging technologies (44:51) Insights into the strategic decisions that have fortified Apple's market position over the years (48:38) The impact of generative AI on existing business ecosystems and future market trends (55:36) Societal and technological transformations influencing today's business environment (58:55) Jonathan’s book recommendations (01:01:30) And much more!   Mentioned in this Episode:   Evercore Partners Columbia Business School The Platform Delusion by Jonathan Knee Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan     Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In the third episode of Season 10, hosts Tano Santos and Michael Mauboussin speak with James Bessen, Executive Director of the Technology and Policy Research Initiative at Boston University. Delving into the intricacies of technological advancement and market dynamics, Bessen shares his insights on the evolving landscape of competition and innovation. The discussion highlights the impact of proprietary software on industry disruption, exploring the significant shift from mass production to mass customization facilitated by technology. This episode not only provides a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities presented by the digital age but also prompts a reflection on the future of value investing in a tech-dominated world and so much more!     Key Topics: Welcome to Season 10 of Value Investing with Legends (0:20) Exploring the concept of barriers to entry in value investing (1:05) James Bessen discusses technology's economic impact (3:15) Analysis of the decline in economic disruption despite technological growth (5:10) Impact of proprietary software on industry stability and market concentration (6:35) Historical perspective on technology's influence on the economy (8:25) The role of proprietary software in shaping competitive dynamics (10:30) The transition from mass production to mass customization in retail (12:05) Walmart’s evolution and strategy in retail sector dynamics (14:20) Discussion on the concept of skill premium and technological advancements (24:55) Artificial intelligence’s influence on market dynamics and job skills (26:10) Examining the pace and implications of innovation diffusion (31:00) Regulatory challenges and tech dominance in the market (34:10) Concentration of innovation and its economic implications (36:20) James’ book recommendations (43:10) And much more! Mentioned in this Episode:   The New Goliaths: How Corporations Use Software to Dominate Industries, Kill Innovation, and Undermine Regulation by James Bessen Learning by Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth by James Bessen The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets by Thomas Philippon The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress by Joel Mokyr Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman by Jeremy Adelman     Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In this episode, Tano Santos sits down with Jan Hummel, CIO of Paradigm Capital, revisiting his investment strategies and exploring the nuanced dimensions of risk management in the evolving European asset landscape. Jan discusses the foundational investment philosophy of Paradigm Capital, emphasizing risk minimization and the strategic deployment of assets across Europe. Key discussions pivot around the firm's selective investment criteria, focusing on companies in the small to mid-cap space and the significance of geographical and cultural nuances in their investment decisions. This conversation offers listeners insights into the subtleties of value investing, portfolio construction, the implications of geopolitical and economic dynamics on market opportunities, and so much more!   Key Topics: Introduction and background of Jan Hummel (0:37) Fundamental tenets of investment philosophy at Paradigm Capital (1:25) The impact of European market dynamics on investment strategies (7:25) Sourcing and valuing investment opportunities (9:47) Specific approaches to risk management and hedging strategies (22:23) Portfolio sizing and the decision-making process behind exiting investments (26:00) The role of geographical focus in Paradigm's investment strategy (29:12) Valuation techniques and practical applications in portfolio management (32:03) Trends and challenges in the European asset management industry (36:48) Macro-economic factors influencing market conditions and investment decisions (40:30) Prospects for growth and opportunities in the European financial landscape (45:17) Jan’s book recommendations (46:06) And much more!   Mentioned in this Episode:   The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level by John Cochrane Paradigm Capital Columbia Business School   Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In this heartfelt episode, we pay tribute to Charlie Munger, the visionary vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway who recently passed away. Joining us is Todd Combs, an investment officer at Berkshire Hathaway and a close acquaintance of Munger. Todd shares personal anecdotes and insights into Munger's profound influence on the investment world and his unique approach to life and business. From his early meetings with Munger to the invaluable lessons on value investing and rational thinking, Todd provides an intimate look into the wisdom of one of the greatest investors of our time.     Key Topics: Celebrating Charlie Munger’s contributions and legacy (01:20) Todd’s initial encounters with Munger (02:15) The intellectual journey and partnership between Munger and Buffett (08:57) Munger's approach to life, investing, and the importance of mental models (11:22) Behavioral economics insights shared by Munger (13:00) The practical applications of Munger’s wisdom in business and investing (16:17) Munger’s lasting impact (24:59) And much more!   Mentioned in this Episode:   Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger by Charles T. Munger  Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman      Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

Today's discussion with Kim Lew, President and CEO of the Columbia Investment Management Company, traverses her unique journey from her roots in the Bronx to managing a prominent Ivy League endowment. Kim shares her insights on navigating the intricate world of investment management, particularly in risk management and asset allocation. With a career marked by pivotal roles at entities like the Ford Foundation and Carnegie Corporation, her expertise brings a nuanced understanding of the interplay between market dynamics and organizational strategy. This episode explores how adaptability, intellectual curiosity, and understanding global trends shape successful investment approaches.   Key Topics: Kim's early career and transition to finance (2:59) Role at Chemical Bank and career progression (5:05) Experience at Prudential Capital and Ford Foundation (9:27) Shift to Carnegie Corporation and Columbia Investment Management (18:07) Challenges of managing a larger endowment (20:13) Aligning endowment goals with university values and ESG considerations (22:08) Comprehensive approach to risk management (26:54) Asset allocation and balancing public vs. private markets (34:06) The concept of future-proofing investment strategies (41:19) Organizational behavior in asset management (48:54) Importance of intellectual curiosity in team members (55:11) Kim’s book recommendations (1:01:01) And much more! Mentioned in this Episode: Columbia Finance The Worlds I See: Curiosity, Exploration, and Discovery at the Dawn of AI by Fei-Fei Li Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie Duke Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things   Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In the complex world of financial markets and economic fluctuations, John Armitage, a seasoned investment maestro, sits down with us today. As the chief strategist behind the success of Egerton Capital, Armitage brings his profound insights into navigating the complexities of portfolio management and the subtle art of risk-taking in fluctuating markets. His expertise, honed through years of experience, sheds light on the critical impact of macroeconomic shifts and the pitfalls that stock pickers often encounter amidst outdated corporate data. This episode delves into passive investing, dissecting the crucial role of competitive dynamics in sectors like European aviation and examining the transformative impact of a growing talent pool on the traditional realms of asset management. Armitage also ventures into the ethical crossroads, intertwining moral integrity, societal upheaval, and the revolutionary wave of artificial intelligence. We uncover his focus on growth, governance, and quality, underpinned by a meticulous decision-making process at Egerton Capital, his literary pursuits, pondering over the influence of literature on his investment philosophy, and so much more!     Key Topics: Overview of Egerton Capital (1:42) Transitioning from broad ideas to specific investments and the role of specialization (8:29) Egerton Capital’s approach to researching new investment opportunities (12:58) Understanding market signals and opposing investment perspectives (15:46) John’s approach to portfolio building and decision-making in investing (20:00) Client importance, portfolio building, and decision-making in investing (23:37) Luck, being in the right place at the right time, and mentorship (28:07) Managing portfolio volatility and the frequency of financial crises (30:54) John’s positive outlook on reinsurance space and companies like Ryanair and Meta (35:31) The future of stock picking and asset management (41:19) What worries John and excites him about the future (43:09) John’s book recommendations (45:29) And much more! Mentioned in this Episode: Egerton Capital The Golden Mole and Other Living Treasure by Katherine Rundell Super-Infinite - The Transformations of John Donne by Katherine Rundell The Fall of Robespierre: 24 Hours in Revolutionary Paris by Colin Jones The Sword and the Shield by Christopher Andrew and Vasilli Mitrokhin   Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!

In the intricate dance of market movements and economic trends, it takes a discerning eye to discern patterns and make strategic decisions. Enter Nicolai Tangen, the astute CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, who joins hosts Michael Mauboussin and Tano Santos on Value Investing with Legends. A connoisseur of art history and asset management, Nicolai offers a rare blend of expertise, drawing parallels between the seemingly disparate worlds of art and investment. His approach, marked by a blend of rigorous analysis and intuitive pattern recognition, reveals the underpinnings of a global economy shrouded in paranoia and driven by innovation. In this episode, Nicolai unfolds his journey from being an art student to leading one of the most prominent investment funds, highlighting how understanding historical context informs risk appetite. He brings to the forefront the role of AI in transforming investment strategies and the delicate balance of managing a substantial portfolio while maintaining a contrarian stance. Tune in to learn about the psychological aspects of risk assessment, the implications of AI on future investment strategies, the value of contrarian thinking in an ever-changing market, and so much more!     Key Topics: Nicolai's journey from Russian military studies to financial expertise at Wharton (2:45) Nicolai's foundational career experiences with John Armitage at Egerton Capital (4:04) The refreshing and insightful sabbatical Nicolai took to study art history (6:42) AKO Capital's strategy: selecting high-quality stocks for robust growth and solid returns (9:17) Investing success through deep reading, contemplative analysis, and rare decisive action (10:34) The critical role of pattern recognition in navigating financial uncertainties (13:51) Post-mortem analysis as a vital component of investment strategy refinement (15:41) The importance of contrarian perspectives in investment strategy and team development (19:09) Delving into CEOs' insights on market trends and the underestimated influence of corporate culture (23:04) Adapting from selecting individual assets to managing broad asset classes with team collaboration (26:48) Proactive engagement in corporate governance through ESG-focused voting practices (30:33) The inescapable responsibility of managing a globally influential investment fund (33:08) Balancing the promising prospects of AI with the imperative of managing social risks (35:36) Defining fund success beyond returns: robust processes and a motivated, fulfilled team (38:07) What keeps Nicolai up at night and excited about the future (40:40) Nicolai’s book recommendations (43:24) And much more! Mentioned in this Episode: Norges Bank AKO Capital Egerton Capital Adam Grant - Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know Angela Duckworth - Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance Amy Edmonson - Teaming: How Organizations Learn, Innovate, and Compete in the Knowledge Economy Annie Duke - Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away    Thanks for Listening!   Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at [email protected].   Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!