One Month On: Assessing the Impact of Trump’s Tariffs

It’s been over a month since the Trump administration introduced tariff’s, sending ripples through global markets. What has been the investor response? Where does inflation go from here? What happens next from a US policy point of view? Will de-globalisation compromise AI productivity? Join us for an analysis of where markets stand, and what might come next. Featuring Arend Kateyn, Chief Global Economist, Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist, and Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist, from UBS Investment Bank. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

How can investors make better decisions? By understanding the past. This year’s edition of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook (GIRY) explores how 125 years of historical data can offer key insights for the future. At the core of the Yearbook is the long-run DMS database, which provides long-run annual returns on stocks, bonds, bills, inflation, and currencies for 35 markets. The unrivalled breadth and quality of its underlying data make the GIRY the global authority on long-run asset performance. Hosted by Tim Ramskill, Global Head of Product Management, UBS Investment Bank, with Professor Paul Marsh, London Business School. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

With a projected economic footprint of $5.4 trillion by the end of this year, and spending power expected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2029, Generation Alpha are a demographic set to have profound market implications. How do their needs differ from previous generations? What sectors will benefit most from their influence? And how do brands need to adapt? Hosted Annabel Willder, Global and European ESG Analyst, with Saranja Sivachelvam, Head of Global Thematics Research. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Climate change is reshaping global tourism. What does this mean for when, where and how we travel? From rising costs to shifting travel patterns, our latest UBS Research podcast dives into how the industry and consumers are adapting. Hosted by Jarrod Castle and Artem Prokopets, UBS Research Travel & Leisure analysts. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Amid New Year’s resolutions and Dry January, we discuss how and why consumers are taking better care of themselves. We touch on the growth of exercise, how innovation is impacting health & wellness, and why Gen Z is drinking less than older generations. Hosted by Arpiné Kocharyan, US Fitness & Leisure Analyst, with Jay Sole, US Softlines Analyst, and Peter Grom, US Household & Personal Care Analyst. (00:37) Key emerging trends in health & wellness that are impacting consumer behavior (01:57) Why has health & wellness been such a strong trend, and will it continue? (04:33) What are the key drivers of the health & wellness trend? (06:22) Which Softlines categories are best positioned? (07:31) How are younger consumers impacting beverage alcohol consumption? (09:58) Why are younger consumers less interested in alcohol than prior generations? (11:38) What impact does Dry January have on alcohol consumption? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this second of two podcasts, we lay out the key market calls from our recently published Outlook. See part one for the main economic calls. (01:00) Equity market outlook (02:55) Fed action (5:32) How does the US equity market rank vs other markets? (08:00) Could there be periods where Europe outperforms the US? (08:16) Bond market outlook (08:16) (08:16) Currency market outlook (12:56) What would surprise you next year? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this first of two podcasts, we lay out the key economics calls from our recently published Outlook. Stay tuned for part two of this series where we discuss the main market calls. Hosted by Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist with Arend Kapteyn, Head of Economics & Strategy Research. (01:06) Key economics calls: which regions are improving and which regions aren’t? (03:35) Why our calls are below consensus (4:32) Tariffs assumptions, growth and inflation (08:45) US rates (11:07) China (12:10) What risks could give us better outcomes? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Software-led payments help businesses scale and expand their customer reach. While adoption is not new, penetration in Europe is still significantly behind the US. We define what software led payments is and discuss why we believe the evolution of software-led payments will be a key theme in European FinTech for the coming years. Hosted by Sambuddha Ray, Head of Macro Strategy Product Management, with Justin Forsythe, European Payments Analyst. (00:45) Key themes in European payments and fintech (02:39) What is software led payments? (06:40) Why is penetration of software led payments lower in Europe than the US? (11:12) What payments landscape in Europe (16:20) European adoption timeframe

We discuss whether the latest fiscal stimulus from China is enough and what more could be done. As the situation evolves, what are the key dates? Which indicators should we watch out for? Hosted by John Lam, Head of China & Hong Kong Property Research, with Dr. Tao Wang, Chief China Economist. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

We discuss how the supply chain landscape has shifted over the past decade touching upon countries that gained or lose market share, how Chinese companies are reacting, sectors that are likely to see more interest from new aspirants, and much more. Hosted by Sambuddha Ray, Head of Macro Strategy Product Management, UBS, with Sunil Tirumalai, Head of EM & Asia Equity Strategy, UBS. (00:43) Questions we address (03:25) What countries are gaining market share right now? (06:55) What’s the look back period for analysis? (07:38) What sectors should an emerging economy aspiring to gain foothold in manufacturing look at? (10:12) How are Chinese companies reacting to companies moving out of China? (12:42) Examples of insightful company/ market case studies (15:57) Summary *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).