2025/6 Global Outlook - Part Two: The Key Market Calls

In this first of two podcasts, we lay out the key economics calls from our recently published Outlook. Stay tuned for part two of this series where we discuss the main market calls. Hosted by Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist with Arend Kapteyn, Head of Economics & Strategy Research. (01:06) Key economics calls: which regions are improving and which regions aren’t? (03:35) Why our calls are below consensus (4:32) Tariffs assumptions, growth and inflation (08:45) US rates (11:07) China (12:10) What risks could give us better outcomes? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this second of two podcasts, we lay out the key market calls from our recently published Outlook. See part one for the main economic calls. (01:00) Equity market outlook (02:55) Fed action (5:32) How does the US equity market rank vs other markets? (08:00) Could there be periods where Europe outperforms the US? (08:16) Bond market outlook (08:16) (08:16) Currency market outlook (12:56) What would surprise you next year? *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Software-led payments help businesses scale and expand their customer reach. While adoption is not new, penetration in Europe is still significantly behind the US. We define what software led payments is and discuss why we believe the evolution of software-led payments will be a key theme in European FinTech for the coming years. Hosted by Sambuddha Ray, Head of Macro Strategy Product Management, with Justin Forsythe, European Payments Analyst. (00:45) Key themes in European payments and fintech (02:39) What is software led payments? (06:40) Why is penetration of software led payments lower in Europe than the US? (11:12) What payments landscape in Europe (16:20) European adoption timeframe

We discuss whether the latest fiscal stimulus from China is enough and what more could be done. As the situation evolves, what are the key dates? Which indicators should we watch out for? Hosted by John Lam, Head of China & Hong Kong Property Research, with Dr. Tao Wang, Chief China Economist. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

We discuss how the supply chain landscape has shifted over the past decade touching upon countries that gained or lose market share, how Chinese companies are reacting, sectors that are likely to see more interest from new aspirants, and much more. Hosted by Sambuddha Ray, Head of Macro Strategy Product Management, UBS, with Sunil Tirumalai, Head of EM & Asia Equity Strategy, UBS. (00:43) Questions we address (03:25) What countries are gaining market share right now? (06:55) What’s the look back period for analysis? (07:38) What sectors should an emerging economy aspiring to gain foothold in manufacturing look at? (10:12) How are Chinese companies reacting to companies moving out of China? (12:42) Examples of insightful company/ market case studies (15:57) Summary *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

A quick snapshot into UBS Global Research Pod Hub where we share key insights on the events shaping today's markets, with global economics, strategy and research thought leaders at UBS.

Election relevance, AI consequence & consumer sentiment. In this episode we explore popular questions on these three key topics. Featuring Beatrice Allen, Zuzanna Pusz and Michael Briest, UBS Research analysts and Bhanu Baweja, UBS Chief Strategist. The 3 Biggest Themes This Year (0:18) Generative AI (00:49) The Adoption of Gen AI (2:26) The Slowing Consumer (05:20) Outlook for Luxury (06:13) Tourism-driven Shopping (06:45) The US Election (09:00) What's the Market Pricing? (09:52) Global and Domestic Context (11:30) *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

Our Chief Strategist, Bhanu Baweja, discusses with Sambuddha Ray, Head of Macro Strategy Product Management, our current expectation of Fed cuts, what’s priced in and key signposts to watch for markets to react in an easing cycle. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this episode we discuss the countries facing the greatest challenges from Europe’s accelerating demographic transition and highlight the economic consequences of aging populations. *(This information is subject to a disclaimer at the end of this podcast. Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).

In this episode we discuss top picks in equities and fixed income with Sonja Laud, CIO at Legal & General Investment Management and Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS. US Slowdown (00:49) US Elections (4:46) Equities (12:00) Fixed Income (17:08) Asset Allocation (17:18) Commodities (26:33) APAC (27:50) Summary (36:50) Please ensure that you listen to the disclaimer and go to www.ubs.com for further information about UBS).