
The Gatekeeper’s New Tax: What ChatGPT Ads Mean for Your Marketing Budget (Digital Reset Episode 490)
ChatGPT launched ads in its responses earlier this year. But they weren’t for everybody. They couldn’t be. Their ads came saddled with a $60 CPM and a $200,000 minimum spend. That pricing is roughly in line with prime-time NFL inventory. Naturally, the tightly-managed pilot started with only around 600 advertisers.
OpenAI might be new to the gatekeeper game, but they sure understand how to collect a tax on the traffic they offer. According to CNBC, OpenAI’s ad pilot crossed $100 million in annualized revenue in under two months.
Now, Search Engine Land is reporting that OpenAI is bringing self-serve access — and getting rid of the $200,000 minimum — this month.
Early performance data around ChatGPT’s ads isn’t as simple as OpenAI’s robust revenue headline suggests. One trade publication put it bluntly: "ChatGPT’s first advertisers can’t prove their ads worked."
The big picture is more complicated though. Yes, click-through rates are low and reporting tools have had challenges. But Criteo — the first ad-tech partner integrated with ChatGPT on the pilot — says that LLM-referred users convert at roughly 1.5 times the rate of other referral channels.
Why? Because it looks like ChatGPT’s ads are a brand awareness channel, not a performance marketing one… at least for now.
This episode of the podcast serves as the paid-media companion to Episode 489’s "The Long Game." The shortcut trap that Tim described in the last episode — where every new gatekeeper offers cheap access early, then raises the toll — is coming for AI.
The question for you isn’t whether you should advertise on AI platforms. Instead, it’s what are you you’re building while the rates are still relatively low… and whether your brand has organic signal worth amplifying in the first place.
This episode of the podcast delivers a three-question framework to help you make the right decision around ChatGPT’s ads. Tim also explains why OpenAI almost certainly will have to change how their ad model works — and why that might make now potentially the cheapest moment to learn how this channel will work for your business.
Key Insights for Marketing and Business Leaders Navigating AI Advertising
In this episode, Tim Peter breaks down:
- Self-serve access changes the conversation. ChatGPT ads launched with a $200,000 minimum spend — an enterprise brand decision by design. With self-serve confirmed for April (Search Engine Land, CNBC), this moves from a Fortune 500 budget question to a decision every marketing leader will face. Here’s what to know before that question lands in your next meeting.
- The performance reality is mixed. Early data shows low click-through rates but strikingly higher conversion rates for users who do click. Criteo, the first ad-tech partner in the ChatGPT pilot, reports LLM-referred users convert at roughly 1.5x the rate of other channels. This is a brand awareness channel, not direct response. Know which one you need before you commit.
- OpenAI has to change the model. That’s good news for early testers. ChatGPT’s $100 million in annualized ad revenue is impressive. It’s also 4% of 1% of Google’s annual search ad revenues. For OpenAI to reach the scale their investors need, they have to grow that number more than 2,500 times. The current format — ads shown to fewer than 20% of users, and even then only at the bottom of the page — is almost certainly not the final version. Which means right now may be the cheapest moment to learn how this channel works.
- Three questions before you commit a dollar. What does the AI actually know about your brand right now? Are you building something that persists after the campaign ends, or just renting visibility that falls to zero when you stop spending? And would the investment still matter if the platform changed its algorithm tomorrow? Those three questions are where your decision lives.
- AI advertising that compounds looks different from AI advertising that doesn’t. Campaigns that drive email capture, loyalty program enrollment, app downloads, or other forms of first-party data collection build assets that last long after your ad spend stops. That’s equity. Traffic to a website that returns to zero when the campaign ends is rent. Rent isn’t wrong; sometimes it’s necessary. But knowing which one you’re buying is mandatory.
- The long game applies in paid media too. The brands that will win aren’t the ones who wait. They also aren’t the ones who expected direct-response ROI from a brand awareness channel. They’re the ones who tested while it was cheap, drove direct relationships, and built first-party data assets that drive returns, again and again.
Whether you’re a CMO deciding how to allocate a test budget, a marketing manager preparing for the question from your CEO, or a small business owner trying to understand what’s happening in AI advertising, this episode of the show gives you the framework to answer the right questions before you commit.
The Gatekeeper’s New Tax: What ChatGPT Ads Mean for Your Marketing Budget (Digital Reset Episode 490) — Headlines and Show Notes
Show Notes and Links
- OpenAI ads pilot tops $100 million in annualized revenue in under 2 months – CNBC
- ChatGPT hits $100 million in ad revenue and is opening self-serve access in April – Search Engine Land
- Criteo Joins OpenAI Advertising Pilot in ChatGPT – Criteo
- ‘Still finding its feet’: Underwhelming early returns for ChatGPT Ads | Campaign US
- Advertising – Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast
- AI search ad spending will climb with consumer adoption
- US Digital Advertising Statistics & Market Data 2026
- OpenAI CEO and CFO Diverge on IPO Timing — The Information
- The Long Game: What 15 Years of Digital Marketing Teaches Us About AI (Digital Reset Episode 489)
- The AI Coin Flip: Why AI Gives Every Customer a Different Answer (Digital Reset Episode 488)
- Agentic Commerce: ChatGPT Bails on Its Shopping Plans (Digital Reset Episode 487)
- The AI Value Gap: Why 82% of Companies are Failing to Gain from AI (Digital Reset Episode 486)
- Best of the Show: In the Age of AI, Brand Isn’t Everything. It’s the Only Thing
- The House Always Wins: Lessons from Google’s 2025 Earnings (Digital Reset Episode 484)
- What ChatGPT Ads Mean for Your Business (Digital Reset Episode 481)
Buy the Book — Digital Reset: Driving Marketing and Customer Acquisition Beyond Big Tech
Tim Peter has written a new book called Digital Reset: Driving Marketing Beyond Big Tech. You can learn more about it here on the site. Or buy your copy on Amazon.com today.
Past Appearances
Rutgers Business School MSDM Speaker: Series: a Conversation with Tim Peter, Author of "Digital Reset"
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Transcript: The Gatekeeper’s New Tax: What ChatGPT Ads Mean for Your Marketing Budget
Welcome back to the show. Last week I laid out the shortcut trap, the pattern that every new gatekeeper follows, where early access looks cheap, the shortcut looks smart, and by the time the toll arrives, too many brands have built too much of their strategy depending on the thing that’s about to change the terms on them.
In particular, I focused on how the shortcut trap applies when you’re working to show up in AI answer engines. This week I want to talk about the paid media version of that story because that’s where the tolls that the gatekeepers want you to pay show up pretty much every single time.
This isn’t some theoretical future scenario. OpenAI has had ads live on ChatGPT for roughly 600 advertisers since February. And those ads were not cheap. OpenAI required a $200,000 minimum spend and roughly a $60 CPM, about three times what you’d pay on Meta. Hell, that’s roughly comparable to what you’d pay for primetime NFL inventory. And it’s worked out well… at least for OpenAI. CNBC confirmed last week that this pilot they’ve been running has already crossed $100 million in annualized revenue in under two months.
Search Engine Land is reporting that self-serve access and the elimination of the $200,000 minimum spend requirement is coming in April. I’m putting air quotes on that because we don’t have a firm date yet. But basically they should be live this month.
And of course, Google has had ads in AI Mode and AI Overviews, at least in English, in roughly a dozen countries for some time.
I’m going to limit today’s conversation to ChatGPT only. Google is Google after all. And we’ll get a much clearer picture of their situation in a few weeks at their upcoming earnings call.
The fact remains that up until now, ads on ChatGPT was an enterprise level brand decision. With the introduction of self-serve, though, it’s about to become a decision every marketing leader is going to be asked about, doesn’t matter the size of your company.
So what’s going on with ChatGPT’s ads? How are they doing?
Well, the early performance data is mixed. One trade publication’s headline was "ChatGPT’s first advertisers can’t prove their ads worked." Woof. I want to be fair. That doesn’t mean that that takes them off the table. But it is a pretty fair if harsh description of where they stand today.
The channel isn’t proven yet. That’s a fact.
What I intend to do though, is give you a framework to decide whether ChatGPT ads belong in your budget — and what you should be doing, whether you use them or not.
This is episode 490 of Digital Reset. I’m Tim Peter. Let’s dive in.
Okay, so let’s get some big questions out of the way. As I mentioned before the break, OpenAI says they’re launching self-serve ads this month. They’re also saying that the $200,000 entry fee is going away. So for most businesses, that’s not really something you need to worry about. You don’t need to worry about those.
You don’t have $200,000 to spend. Don’t worry about it. You worried when it’ll be ready? Well, they’re coming within weeks. In short, you’ll be able to test ChatGPT ads if you choose, and I promise the rest of this episode will help you answer the question of whether or not you should choose to do so.
Before I do that though, let’s be clear about what’s happening here. I’m not going to spend too much time on setting up what the ads are and how they work because frankly, OpenAI could change the way this works at any time. In fact, as I’ll argue in a bit, they’re almost certainly going to have to change.
At any rate, the way OpenAI is handling ads on ChatGPT right now is to show them only at the bottom of ChatGPT answers. They’re clearly labeled as ads. They’re only shown to users in ChatGPT’s free and "Go" tiers. In other words, customers in the Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise, and Education tiers won’t see the ads.
While that might sound like a lot of people in practice, something like 85% of ChatGPT’s users fall into the two tiers that are eligible for ads. At the same time, according to CNBC, this is a quote, "less than 20% are shown [ads] on a daily basis."
It’s not clear to me if that’s 20% of all users or only 20% of the 85% who could in theory see them. Since that’s still 17%, I’m not gonna consider that a material difference. And according to OpenAI, its "ads do not influence the answers ChatGPT gives you."
As I also mentioned before the break, that early performance data on the ads is mixed, which I’d think you’d expect, given that at best, only about 17% to 20% of their total audience sees these ads regularly. I’ll link to the various reports in the show notes.
The early data suggests though, that they’re seeing very low click-through rates, strikingly higher conversion rates, and some real reporting challenges in the early days. We can ignore the reporting challenges. They’ll fix that.
Criteo said that users referred from LLM platforms like ChatGPT convert at approximately one and a half times the rate of other referral channels. That’s actually pretty good.
And if we think about the low click-through rates and the high conversion rates, those make some sense.
Low click-through rates seem pretty likely given that the ads are down at the bottom of the page. And given that most conversations with large language models like ChatGPT are about getting answers, why would anyone need to click an ad once they got their answer? Assuming they ever scroll down far enough to see them.
Again on the conversion rate side, that also follows logically that it would be higher than you might expect. Because the ads shown really function more as a brand awareness tool than a direct response tool. Again, the user got an answer and the ad shows a product, service, or brand that’s related to their answer.
I suspect, and I want to be fair, I have no evidence for this other than my intuition and experience, that the ads getting actioned accompany responses containing a brand.
Well, what makes me think this? So we have seen over the last couple of years a number of clients getting increased branded search traffic because AIs are citing them in their answers.
We know that branded search converts at a much higher rate than unbranded search. And I think something similar is happening here. If you’re using these ads, your brand is showing up in the answer, it’s showing up in the ad, or it’s showing up in both.
That’s driving increased awareness of your brand and attracting people who are interested in your offering. The folks seeing those ads become more likely to buy because of the trust signals in the answer and the ad together.
And because they’ve got some affinity for your brand from seeing this, those folks likely convert at a higher rate. They’re like branded searchers. Probably.
Obviously I’d love to see more data, but my gut and my experience in digital marketing make me feel slightly confident about this. I want to be fair, this is not guaranteed. I’d peg my confidence level at maybe 60% to 70%. But it feels kind of likely that that’s what’s happening here.
In either case, I think these ads today are much more of an awareness play than a performance marketing play. Some of the data does seem to support that, and again, you’ll see those in the show notes.
Another point that you want to consider as you think about this tool, this platform, is that you don’t want to get too excited or pulled in by OpenAI’s reported hundred million dollars in revenue.
Just because they’re making money is no guarantee that you will make money.
We are in very early days of these tools and there’s very little data to go on at the moment, so you’re going to want to proceed with caution.
I’m going to give you a framework to think about how you can proceed, but I do want to touch on one point before I get there.
Earlier I said that ChatGPT almost certainly will have to change how their ads work. Their $100 million in annualized run rate kind of demonstrates why. While we’re a few weeks away from Q1 numbers, we know that in Q4 Google made almost $63 billion of its Q4 revenues — fully 55% of its Q4 revenues — from search ads.
If AI ads don’t work, advertisers aren’t going to use them. And the AI companies’ ad platforms won’t produce revenue for them.
OpenAI’s $100 million in annualized revenue is a great number. Seriously. And the fact that they managed to pull that off since February is extraordinary.
What’s also true is that Google made just short of $63 billion from search ads… in a quarter. That’s an annualized run rate just short of $251 billion from search ads alone.
For OpenAI to equal that, they’d need to grow that $100 million number over 2,508 times larger.
Again, I want to be really fair to OpenAI. If they manage to only achieve 1% of that, that’s still $25 billion in annual revenue. That would be an extraordinary, remarkable accomplishment.
It’s also only 1% of Google’s revenues. Put it another way, today they’re pulling in roughly 4% of 1% of Google’s search ad revenues. Not total revenues. Search ad revenues. Period. That is not what their investors are looking for. No way, no how.
As Matthew McConaughey famously said, "you gotta pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers." And that’s not going to happen if they only show ads at the bottom of the page to 20% or less of their users. Nope, not gonna happen.
I can’t tell you how they’re going to change the model. I can’t tell you when they’re going to change that model. But they’re going to pump those numbers up. I can almost guarantee it.
If you look at it that way, now might be the cheapest time you could ever choose to test their ads.
So the question comes back around, should you look at ChatGPT ads? Should you test ChatGPT ads for your business?
To answer that question, I’d like you to consider a framework built on three key questions.
The first is, what does AI know about your brand right now? You’ve heard me say this in past episodes, I’ve proposed a test that you can and should conduct so you can learn what AIs think of your brand.
Before you think about running ads in ChatGPT, ask what it knows about your brand. Ask ChatGPT, ask Gemini, ask Perplexity to describe your company. I would prompt it first to act as a novice and then to act as an expert. For example, if I were looking to see what it knows about my company, I’d ask, "tell me what you know about Tim Peter and Associates."
Afterwards, I might provide a more sophisticated prompt, such as, imagine you’re an expert in B2B consulting services with a 180 IQ, and a specific expertise in digital strategy for hotels. Give me your honest assessment of Tim Peter and Associates. Assume that I’m watching you closely and have this expertise myself. Get this right.
Obviously substitute your brand in place of mine. But see what the AI comes back with.
Whatever an AI hedges on or gets wrong is the gap you need to close. Advertising on top of a confused AI signal doesn’t fix the confusion. It amplifies it.
If ChatGPT and other LLMs cannot describe your brand accurately in an organic response, a paid placement at the bottom of that same answer isn’t going to help you.
Your number one task then has to be to help the AI learn the truth about you. And I’ll provide links in the show notes for past episodes where we’ve discussed how you do that.
The second question you need to ask is something I talked about last week. Are you building a foundation for your business or are you renting visibility? AI advertising that helps you drive email capture and direct relationships and app downloads or enrollment in your loyalty program, builds something that persists even after the campaign ends. That’s a foundation you can build on over time.
AI advertising that just drives traffic to your website, traffic that returns to zero when you stop spending, is rent. And rent isn’t necessarily wrong. But you’ve gotta know which one you’re paying for before you commit.
The third question is also from last week’s episode. Would this investment you make still matter if the AI platform changed their algorithm tomorrow?
Most AI advertising currently fails this test. Which means what you’re buying is brand awareness, not infrastructure. Don’t get me wrong, brand awareness is a legitimate goal. But only if brand awareness is what you actually need right now.
Those three questions: "what does the AI know about your brand? Are you building a foundation? And would the investment still matter if the algorithm changed tomorrow?" are where I’d start.
AI ads that help you drive direct relationships are worthwhile. Again, email list signups, first-party data collection, loyalty program enrollment, app downloads. The ad spend might be transient, but the relationship it creates when done well is permanent. That’s always something worth investing in.
This is the same lesson that independent hotels that have survived in the era of OTAs have learned. Hoteliers who used early OTA access to build direct booking programs and build up their CRM had options when costs went up.
The ones who only used OTAs to fill rooms were hostage to the commission structure.
You know that I’m a fan of playing the long game. I think there’s a long game to be played here too.
Again, ChatGPT’s revenues are 4% of 1% of Google’s search ad revenues. Search ads are the biggest driver of ad spending in the world, and AI search ads are projected to grow 10 times over in the next three years. That’s tremendous upside. Not just for ChatGPT, but for you.
And as we’ve seen before, the brands and businesses that use new platforms as a distribution channel to accelerate their direct relationship building and not as a substitute for it are the ones that will win.
If you can test this channel while it’s cheap, drive email capture, drive loyalty signups, build first-party data assets that compound — you are going to be in a really, really good place no matter what happens.
The brands that won’t fare as well are the ones who either wait entirely, and then get hit with higher costs with no first mover advantage, or the ones who treat AI advertising as a performance channel substitute, expecting direct response ROIs from what is, at least today, primarily a brand awareness play. Those folks are in trouble.
Playing the long game here doesn’t mean don’t use AI ads. It means advertise in a way that builds something you keep. Do that right, and you won’t find yourself caught behind the gatekeeper’s gate. You won’t find yourself caught in a shortcut trap. No matter what happens with AI ads in the longer term.
If this episode gave you a clearer picture of how you should approach AI ads for your business, do me a favor. Send it to a colleague who’s getting asked whether it’s time to consider AI ads. It might save them from going down the wrong path.
You can find the show notes for this episode and the full archive of past episodes at timpeter.com/podcasts.
And if you are ready to go deeper on making your brand the answer that AI reaches for, my book, "Digital Reset: Driving Marketing and Customer Acquisition Beyond Big Tech," is the roadmap. You’ll find the link in the show notes.
Thank you so much for listening today. I genuinely appreciate you. Until next time, please be well, be safe, and be excellent to each other. I’ll see you soon.
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