The Science of Scaling: Using data to scale your startup perfectly w/ Mark Roberge

The Startup Podcast is back for its 300th episode – and it’s an absolute doozy. In today’s Reacts, hosts Chris Saad and Yaniv Bernstein break down how Anthropic became the new industry leader in AI, and why betting on coding as the 'meta domain' of AI turned out to be one of the most consequential product decisions of the decade.They also dig into Mythos and the newly released Claude Fable: what makes Fable different, whether it has something approaching genuine intelligence, and what the Anthropic 'strategy dividend' (per Ben Thompson of Stratechery) actually means for the industry.Then: SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO. With a reported valuation of around $1.88 trillion and a prospectus that talks more about AI than rockets, Chris and Yaniv ask the obvious question: is it worth it?In this episode:How product discipline and a bet on coding put Anthropic in frontStrategy dividends: how Anthropic's genuine commitment to safety became both a real constraint and a powerful marketing asset at the same timeClaude’s new models, Fable and Mythos: what's actually changed?Why Chris thinks the SpaceX IPO at ~90x revenue is a roll-up of Elon Musk's 'dead bodies'Liquidity risk: with SpaceX, Google and Anthropic all raising simultaneously, is there enough liquidity in the market?Timestamps00:00 Coming Up...00:39 On Today's Show: Chris returns, Anthropic’s Mythos/Fable, SpaceX IPO02:30 Anthropic surges ahead of OpenAI04:16 Why coding is a 'meta-advantage' for AI07:24 OpenAI’s product turmoil11:04 Are OpenAI competing with Anthropic, or Google?13:25 Anthropic’s enterprise strategy17:06 Mythos: ‘Safety marketing’ or ‘safety dividends’?23:24 Are Anthropic the good guys?26:32 Fable: “Mythos with a muzzle”28:29 Does AI only need to beat the average human?31:23 Yaniv’s experiences with Fable32:46 Reasoning logs and self-correction34:27 Is SpaceX over-valued? (Yes.)39:32 SpaceX’s moats and growth potential43:02 Why ‘second mover advantage’ sometimes wins46:05 Will there be a crash? Chris predicts a liquiditycrunch50:31 Closing ThoughtsResources mentioned in this episodeDario Amodei's essay, 'Machines of Loving Grace': https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-graceBen Thompson's Stratechery: https://stratechery.comProject Glasswing (Anthropic's restricted Mythos access program): https://www.anthropic.com/glasswingEric Ries on The Startup Podcast: https://youtu.be/HQ7cP1lGyiMThe PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us on YouTube for full video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/@startup-podcastGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.This episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by Vanta. Vanta helps businesses get and stay compliant by automating up to 90% of the work for the most in demand compliance frameworks. With over 200 integrations, you can easily monitor and secure the tools your business relies on. For a limited time offer of US$1,000 off, go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠www.vanta.com/tsp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

Every founder gets a version of the same advice: don't pick a fight with an entrenched industry. The incumbents have the relationships, the regulatory cover, the deep pockets - you'll bleed out trying.But some of the most interesting companies of the last decade were built ignoring that advice, winning over markets that were nearly impenetrable.In this episode, Yaniv Bernstein is joined by Brandon Weber - co-founder and CEO of Nava Benefits, a Series C-funded AI-powered health benefits brokerage. Before Nava, Brandon co-founded Hightower, a commercial real estate startup that merged with VTS and went on to run over half of all office buildings in the United States. Brandon has now done this twice in two completely different industries, and has developed a repeatable playbook for breaking into entrenched markets and using AI as a structural advantage.Yaniv and Brandon dig into what actually makes a market 'broken', why the entry point needs to be far narrower than most founders think, and how to build the conviction to keep going when a thousand people tell you it won't work. In this episode, you will:Understand the 'burning platform' signal - what makes a market 'broken', but worth spending a years breaking intoLearn why your entry point needs to be far narrower than feels comfortable, and how Brandon went from targeting 'the health insurance market' to 'employers with 50-500 employees who can't afford a dedicated benefits team'Hear why 'disrupting from within' is often smarter than disrupting head-on - and how Nava built a broker-shaped entity that the industry's immune system couldn't rejectDiscover how to design a human-AI system (what Brandon calls a 'cybernetic' service model) where agents handle 80-85% of the work and licensed professionals operate at the top of their licenseTimestamps00:00 Coming Up…00:45 On Today's Show: Brandon Weber on Fixing Broken Industries01:43 How To Spot Broken Markets03:59 Why Most Healthcare Startups Fail (Distribution)05:35 Lessons From Building Hightower and VTS08:41 How Do We Think Smaller? Finding the 'Narrow Wedge'10:57 What It Means To 'Disrupt From Within'16:53 Choosing the ICP18:35 The Innovator's Dilemma and Moving Upmarket22:57 Scaling with AI: A Business in Two Phases26:29 Service as a Software34:02 Attract and Hire Industry Insiders36:44 When to Acquire39:06 Closing AdviceResources mentioned in this episodeNava Benefits (Brandon's company): https://www.navabenefits.comGary Lo's previous TSP episode: https://youtu.be/jtMgd7Nv_HYThe Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christensen (framework discussed at length): https://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Change-Business/dp/0062060244The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/@startup-podcastGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

What if writing software became as easy as taking a selfie?This episode, Yaniv Bernstein sits down with Gary Lo - founder of OpenBA and one of the sharpest AI-and-startups thinkers Yaniv knows - to discuss the concept of 'selfie software': disposable, hyper-personal, AI-generated tools that anyone can create for themselves, with no hand-written code.AI-generated tools like these are changing the startup landscape. While founders now have more tools at their disposal, it's now necessary than ever to create a product that truly disrupts the market.Gary and Yaniv discuss all of this and more, likening Claude and ChatGPT to Windows and Mac, and exploring what this tech landscape means if you're building a software startup today.In this episode, you will:Understand the 'selfie software' concept: why AI is making software disposable, personal, and low-stakes, and what that means for the market you're building inLearn why AI platforms are forcing startups to rethink whether they should build on their own infrastructure or embed into Claude and ChatGPT insteadHear Gary's 'burn it down' exercise: how to identify which parts of your product are genuinely defensible, and which will simply catch fire in the next AI waveUnderstand why software engineering isn't dead, but the problems worth solving with it have fundamentally shiftedTimestamps00:00 Coming Up...01:09 On Today's Show: Gary Lo on 'Selfie Software'02:48 About Gary03:16 How 'Hyper-Personalized' AI Is Like Photography05:36 Gary's Real Estate Workflow (OpenBA)07:29 Defining 'Selfie Software': Why Custom Tools Win10:33 So... Is It Bad Software?13:29 'Can’t You Just Add This One Thing...'15:30 When Personalization Becomes Bloat17:42 Working In-App with Anthropic and OpenAI APIs20:29 Token Economics and Moats25:28 Microsoft's Lessons in Platform Power30:27 But What If Anthropic Comes For My Vertical?32:48 How Open Source Keeps AI in Check35:18 Unlearning and Rebuilding39:05 Gary's 'Burn It Down' Test44:01 Is Software Engineering Dead? (No.)50:17 Closing ThoughtsResources in this episodeGary Lo's previous TSP episode (on OpenClaw and Claude Cowork): https://youtu.be/V3YFghiy8p0 Garry Tan's gstack: https://github.com/garrytan/gstack Andrej Karpathy on Software 2.0: https://karpathy.medium.com/software-2-0-a64152b37c35 Vera (Yaniv's startup, AI-supported guidance for people caring for ageing parents): https://vera.guideThe PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us here on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGgGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.This episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by Vanta. Vanta helps businesses get and stay compliant by automating up to 90% of the work for the most in demand compliance frameworks. With over 200 integrations, you can easily monitor and secure the tools your business relies on. For a limited time offer of US$1,000 off, go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠www.vanta.com/tsp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

Most founders set out to build something that matters: a company that’s aligned with their mission, now and forever. But what if the very systems we use to build ‘real’ companies are the thing that corrupts them?In this episode, Yaniv Bernstein is joined by Silicon Valley legend Eric Ries author of the era-defining 'The Lean Startup', founder of the Long-Term Stock Exchange, and now the author of a provocative new book, 'Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Companies Stay Great'.Eric makes the case that corruption is a structural problem, rather than a failing of the people themselves. He walks Yaniv through the ‘financial gravity’ that pulls good companies away from their founders' purpose, and the governance ‘fortresses’ that a small handful of outlier companies (from Costco to Novo Nordisk to Anthropic) have used to stay great.In this episode, you will:Understand ‘financial gravity’ - the force that degrades values, corrupts economic decisions, and reduces long-term outcomesLearn the legend of Sol Price (the father of modern retail behind Costco), and why treating margins as a liability rather than a virtue can be a source of enduring strengthExplore the ‘industrial foundation’ model behind century-old giants like Novo Nordisk and Zeiss, and why companies with this structure are roughly 6x more likely to survive to year 50Hear how Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust shaped its trajectory, and why in the age of AI, trustworthiness is the single most valuable corporate assetTimestamps00:00 Coming Up...01:06 On Today's Show: Eric Ries, author of The Lean Startup and Incorruptible02:41 From 'The Lean Startup' to 'Incorruptible': Why Governance Matters04:13 The Two Mysteries05:45 Case Study: Sol Price and FedMart08:58 The Shareholder Primacy Trap14:04 Costco's Governance Fortress16:50 Founder Control vs VCs19:33 Why Markets Punish Your Mission21:30 Novo Nordisk's Foundation Model26:35 Anthropic and AI Trust29:37 Governance in Action Today31:54 Doing the Right Thing33:27 Goodhart's Law and Customer Service Metrics38:36 Why 'Harder Is Easier'39:02 Costco's Hotdog Promise41:55 Mission Lock Structures43:32 Pitching Investors, Leverage and the Fundraising Decision Tree49:33 HBO's Silicon Valley and 'Minimum Viable Product'53:57 Closing Thoughts & Book PlugResources mentioned in this episode'Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad... and How Great Companies Stay Great' by Eric Ries: https://www.incorruptible.co/'The Lean Startup' by Eric Ries: https://theleanstartup.com/bookLong-Term Stock Exchange (LTSE): https://ltse.com/'Skin in the Game' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646Mark Cuban's Cost Plus Drugs: https://costplusdrugs.com/The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us here on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGgGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

This is a bonus feed drop from Dan Blumberg's podcast 'Future Around and Find Out' (FAFO), winner of the 2026 Webby Award for Best Technology Podcast.If you like what you hear, check out FAFO at https://www.futurearound.com/Original description:Henrik Werdelin is one of my favorite entrepreneurs. He’s founded and incubated several unicorns, most notably BARK, the dog happiness company.Henrik himself is a pretty happy guy — an optimistic guy who likes to ask what could go right? — and on the day we recorded (a few months ago as I was squirreling away interviews for the podcast relaunch), he helped me see through some future of tech gloom I was feeling. I honestly can’t even remember what Trump+tech hellscape we were living through that week, but I do remember that Henrik put me in a better mood. I think he’ll do the same for you, no matter how you’re feeling. 🤗Henrik believes AI could be a massive force for good. That it could bring forth a whole new — a better! — form of capitalism. He writes about this is in his latest book, Me, My Customer, and AI. He points to those (like Henry Ford) who took advantage of electricity by making drastic, not incremental, changes to how the build things. Our conversation pairs nicely with my recent episode with Azeem Azhar, who said the AI winners will “come from odd places”, as they have in previous tech transformations. Here’s more of what Henrik and I cover:His concept of "relationship capital"—the moat AI can't clone—and why the companies that win next will be defined by who they serve, not what they makeThe three components of relationship capital: intensity, community, and durabilityThe "it sucks that" method for finding problems worth solving (he took it to a fifth grade class; the teacher was not thrilled)His vision for the "headless", agentic web, where your startup's MVP is a group of agents, not an appThe wildly practical AI tools he's built just for himself: a custom CRM that searches by vibes not names, a newsletter bot tuned to his quarterly goals, and an agent that handled his visa paperwork while he was in a meetingWhy entrepreneurial skills—agency, narrative, resourcefulness—are the ultimate career insurance, whether you start a company or notThe absolutely ridiculous story of how a prank on a cruise ship led to him meeting his BARK co-founder in a heart-shaped bedChapters(01:43) - Two Futures: AI Bad vs. AI Really, Really Good(05:44) - Why Positivity Is Actually the Riskier Bet(09:05) - Electricity, AI, and the Rise of Relationship Capital(11:12) - The Three Components of Relationship Capital(14:20) - "It Sucks That" — The Best Way to Find a Real Problem(19:22) - The Headless Future and Minimum Viable Agents(22:40) - N-of-One Software: Building Tools Just for Yourself(26:48) - Henrik's Custom Newsletter Bot and AI-Powered CRM(30:59) - Warp, Obsidian, and Letting Agents Loose on Your Computer(34:45) - Entrepreneurial Skills as Career Insurance(36:53) - The Heart-Shaped Bed: How Henrik Met His BARK Co-FounderCredits for The Startup Podcast:Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/

Most founders treat 'scale' like a switch you flip after raising a round: hire 14 reps, 10x the ad spend, and pray. About half scale too early and burn the runway, while the other half scale too late and get caught by a more aggressive competitor. Almost nobody can tell you, in measurable terms, when they're actually ready.In this episode, Yaniv Bernstein is joined by Mark Roberge - founding CRO at HubSpot (where he scaled the company from $0 to $100M ARR), senior lecturer at Harvard Business School, cofounder of Stage 2 Capital, and author of the new book 'The Science of Scaling'. Mark walks Yaniv through his impressive data-driven framework for scaling that he's spent a decade refining, covering how to objectively define product-market fit, why customer retention is the only honest measure of PMF, and how to instrument a Leading Indicator of Retention you can act on in week one.In this episode, you will:Learn why retention is the only honest measure of product-market fit, and why most founders are flying blind without itDiscover Mark's framework for building a Leading Indicator of Retention (LIR) you can measure in week one, using Slack, HubSpot, and Facebook as worked examplesHear Mark coach Yaniv through Vera's LIR in real time, and pick up a repeatable method for designing one for your own businessLearn the 'Stay/Go/Slow' model for pacing hires and spend post-raise, and why startups should reassess monthly or quarterly rather than locking in an annual planGet Mark's take on why 'paranoid optimism' is the trait that correlates most strongly with founder success, and the link between that trait and founder mental healthTimestamps00:00 Coming Up00:26 On Today's Show: The Science of Scaling01:47 Guest Intro: Mark Roberge02:31 Why Scaling Needs Data04:20 Eric Ries and Product Market Fit06:56 Retention as a North Star10:15 What Makes a Good Leading Indicator?15:00 Case Study: Vera (Yaniv's Startup)17:41 Choosing Frequency and Event23:55 Instrumenting and Unique Value31:12 Blitzscaling and Defining PET34:41 ICP Denominator Rules37:28 Segmenting By Product40:40 Go To Market Fit45:25 Dealing with Revenue-Focused Investor Pressure50:33 The Pace of Scaling56:07 About the Book, The Science of Scaling57:45 Founder Mental Health01:02:28 Closing ThoughtsResources in this episode:Mark Roberge on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markroberge/‘The Science of Scaling: Using Data to Decide When — and How Fast — to Scale Revenue’ by Mark Roberge: https://www.amazon.com/Science-Scaling-Revenue-Mark-Roberge/dp/1394319428Stage 2 Capital (Mark's B2B SaaS-focused venture firm): https://www.stage2.capital/Vera (Yaniv's startup): https://vera.guide/The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appFollow us on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/@startup-podcastGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean and memorable name, go to https://⁠get.tech/tspThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by Vanta. Vanta helps businesses get and stay compliant by automating up to 90% of the work for the most in demand compliance frameworks. With over 200 integrations, you can easily monitor and secure the tools your business relies on. For a limited time offer of US$1,000 off, go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠www.vanta.com/tsp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

In 2026, startups age like milk. Josh Foreman's solution is a radical one - step down as CEO, go back to basics, and refound the whole company. Yaniv Bernstein discusses this decision with Josh, founder and (for now) CEO of InDebted - the AI-native debt resolution business he scaled to an $80M revenue run rate, a Series C raise, and operations across 8 markets. Just days before recording, Josh publicly announced he's hiring a new CEO so he can step back into the business as a hands-on operator and refound the company for the agentic AI era.In this conversation, Josh and Yaniv discuss 'refounding' in practice, what it takes to rebuild the company's processes from the ground up, and why technical founders who don't go back on the tools right now are setting themselves up to be outbuilt by a smaller, faster, leaner version of themselves.In this episode, you will:Learn why Josh believes the highest-leverage role for a technical founder in 2026 is no longer CEO, and how to structure a founder-CEO partnership that actually worksUnderstand why 'feature patching' an established business is a losing strategy, and what it really means to rebuild your company function-by-function from a clean slateDiscover how revenue-per-employee has become the metric that matters most when raising capital and competing with AI-native upstartsHear why services-as-software and performance-fee models are suddenly the bull case for investors who hated them 12 months ago - and why the SaaS seat fee is on the way outFind out what it looks like to unbundle your product into agent-ready primitives, and why owning the eval for a narrow domain may be a bigger moat than your full-stack UITimestamps00:00 Coming Up: Refounding00:41 Josh Foreman, CEO (for now)01:41 What Refounding Means04:53 Rebuilding the Factory07:38 Bringing the Team Along10:51 No Choice but Change14:56 Aligning the Board and Investors16:52 Putting Founders Back on the Tools26:24 'Corporate Ozempic' Shrinking Teams32:57 Unbundling and Products for Agents38:39 Hiring a CEO When Refounding44:11 Closing ThoughtsMentioned in this episodeJosh Foreman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshforeman/InDebted: https://www.indebted.co/Scott Galloway on 'Corporate Ozempic': https://www.profgalloway.com/corporate-ozempic/Surviving the AI SaaSpocalypse with Scotty Allen: https://youtu.be/j84LF4aru8I 'Paranoid Optimism' with Yaniv: https://youtu.be/FGqbdzr0-PM The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us here on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGgGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

Many AI startups funded in the last 18 months won't last three years - so what makes a business durable today?Yaniv Bernstein is joined by Marlon Nichols, co-founder and managing general partner of MaC Venture Capital - one of the most active seed-stage AI investors in the market, having scaled MaC to over $600M AUM across three funds in just four years. Marlon's portfolio includes Pipe, Stoke Space, Thrive Market, Chef Robotics, and exits like Wonder Dynamics to Autodesk and Gimlet Media to Spotify.In this conversation, Marlon uses his industry experience to explain the biggest threats to new AI startups, and what the key components of successful startups in the industry will be.In this episode, you will:Hear why Marlon thinks niche or mid-size foundational models are now prime acquisition targets for OpenAIDiscover why misreading traction is the #1 mistake VCs are making right nowLearn why Marlon is more excited about manufacturing-line prediction and grid-scale batteries than humanoid robotsExplore why founder unit economics need a complete rewrite when token costs replace SaaS-style marginal costUnderstand why software is no longer a moat — and why data access, deep customer integration, and speed are the only three durable advantages left at the application layerLearn the difference between AI-native companies and AI-bolted-on companies, and what a 5-year-old startup should do if it's on the wrong side of that lineTimestamps00:00 Coming Up01:07 On Today's Show: Durable Tech02:33 Meet Marlon Nichols03:25 Defining 'Durable' AI Startups05:23 Moats for Foundation Models07:15 Chef Robotics and AI Native vs AI Enabled09:24 Upgrading Legacy Startups10:55 Pipe’s AI Pivot Case Study13:19 Winning at the App Layer15:56 Speed and Workflow Stickiness17:51 Investment Checklist and Team20:30 Automotive Digital Twins and Regulatory Testing24:27 Why Physical AI?26:09 Robotics In Manufacturing26:55 Energy Storage And Batteries28:30 Why Cheaper Builds Still Need Talent30:19 Where Traction Can Be Misleading33:41 Token Costs And Unit Economics36:46 Closing ThoughtsMentioned in this episodeMaC Venture Capital: https://macventurecapital.com/Marlon Nichols on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marloncnichols/'The Bitter Lesson' by Rich Sutton: http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.htmlVera (Yaniv's startup, AI-supported guidance for people caring for ageing parents): https://vera.guide/The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us here on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGgGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.This episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by Vanta. Vanta helps businesses get and stay compliant by automating up to 90% of the work for the most in demand compliance frameworks. With over 200 integrations, you can easily monitor and secure the tools your business relies on. For a limited time offer of US$1,000 off, go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠www.vanta.com/tsp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

Being a founder has always meant dreaming big while keeping a close eye on potential trip-ups, and in the age of AI, finding and maintaining that balance is more important than ever.Today, Yaniv Bernstein talks about the importance of getting that balance right. Using deep insight and decades of industry experience, he discusses why now is the time for founders to be more ambitious than ever before - while identifying threats to success and keeping a keen, near-paranoid eye on them.In this episode, you will:Understand why ‘paranoid optimism’ has always been the founder superpower, and why AI has made it more essential than everLearn why tokens are ‘the new oil’ and how the ‘token OPEC’ is already exerting price and product leverage over every AI-native startupExplore Garry Tan's ‘boil the lake’ concept and why early-stage founders can now afford to be more ambitious in scope than ever beforeFind out why startups have a bigger speed advantage over incumbents than at any time in history, and how to actually use itDiscover how foundation model providers like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google can wipe out entire startup categories without ever deliberately competing with youTimestamps00:00 Coming Up00:59 On Today's Show: Paranoid Optimism01:27 Surviving as a Baby Turtle03:00 Risks of Pure Optimism05:24 A Herd of Thundering Elephants07:44 Magic Elephants09:50 3 Shifts: Compression, Leverage and Startup Advantage12:54 YC's Garry Tan & 'Boiling The Lake'15:38 Why Be Paranoid?15:52 AI Risks Category Collapse18:13 Anthropic, Google and OpenAI: The OPEC of Tokens19:51 Identity Collapse21:54 How to Operate As Paranoid Optimist21:59 1. Holding Strong Priors and Updating Fast23:31 2. Architecting For Escape25:57 3. Stay Closer To The Problem Than The Solution28:13 Closing ThoughtsResources mentioned in this episode'Same As Ever' by Morgan Housel: https://www.amazon.com/Same-Ever-Guide-Never-Changes/dp/0593332709Last week’s episode - Same As Ever: 7 rules that HAVEN'T changed about building great startups (w/ Amir Shevat): https://www.tsp.show/same-as-ever-7-rules-that-havent-changed-about-building-great-startups-w-amir-shevat/Previous episode - 'Unlearning' with Yaniv: Why founders need to rewrite outdated, radioactive mindsets: https://www.tsp.show/unlearning-with-yaniv-why-founders-need-to-rewrite-outdated-radioactive-mindsets/Garry Tan’s 'Boil the Ocean' blog post: https://garryslist.org/posts/boil-the-oceanVera, Yaniv's current startup: https://vera.guide/ The PactHonor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSecure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/Follow us here on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGgGive us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/

Between AI shaking up the industry, geopolitical upheaval, and unpredictable capital, being a founder has never been more confusing.So what advice, if any, is still relevant?In this episode, Yaniv Bernstein is joined by Amir Shevat (Silicon Valley developer platform veteran and now General Partner at Darkmode Ventures) to answer exactly that. Focusing on what isn't changing rather than what is, Amir walks through seven truths of startup building that have become more important in the age of AI.In this episode, you will:Discover why AI-generated sales outreach is backfiring, and why authenticity, proof of effort, and in-person events are becoming the gold standardExplore the "founder tar pit" of bad markets, and the simple questions that reveal whether yours is one to run fromLearn why design in 2026 is about putting positive interactions and emotions first, and how to prioritize these effectivelyTimestamps00:00 Coming Up…01:07 Guest Intro: Amir Shevat02:36 On Today's Show: 7 Timeless Truths04:34 Jeff Bezos and the 'Same As Ever' Mindset08:19 Rule 1. Hire The Right Team10:15 How AI Raises The Bar14:26 Rule 2. A Delightful User Experience16:27 Conversational Interfaces18:07 Why You Should Design For Emotions24:20 Rule 3. Hustle Still Wins26:05 The Return of Authentic Selling28:09 Landing Your First Customers28:50 Rule 4. Build Real Moats30:48 Mongol Hordes: Is 'Execution Speed' A Moat?33:00 'Thick' Product Advantage33:39 Rule 5. Vision Beats TAM38:07 Rule 6. Choose Great Markets42:34 Rule 7. Build An Unfair Advantage47:10 Recap and Closing ThoughtsResources in this episode:Darkmode Ventures (Amir's early-stage fund): https://www.darkmode.vc/Amir Shevat on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amirshevat/Designing Bots: https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/designing-bots/9781491974810/Working Backwards by Colin Bryar and Bill Carr: https://www.amazon.com/Working-Backwards-Insights-Stories-Secrets/dp/1250267595Same as Ever by Morgan Housel: https://www.amazon.com/Same-Ever-Guide-Never-Changes/dp/05933327092012 re:Invent Day 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4MtQGRIIuAThe Pact Honor the Startup Podcast Pact! If you have listened to TSP and gotten value from it, please:Follow, rate, and review us in your listening appSubscribe to the TSP Mailing List to gain access to exclusive newsletter-only content and early access to information on upcoming episodes: https://thestartuppodcast.beehiiv.com/subscribe Secure your official TSP merchandise at https://shop.tsp.show/ Follow us here on YouTube for full-video episodes: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjm1MTdjysRRV07fSf0yGg Give us a public shout-out on LinkedIn or anywhere you have a social media followingKey linksThis episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by .tech domains. Forget weird prefixes and creative misspellings; the availability for .tech domains is simply way better than .com. For a clean name that highlights your tech credentials, get a .tech domain at your favorite registrar.This episode of the Startup Podcast is sponsored by Vanta. Vanta helps businesses get and stay compliant by automating up to 90% of the work for the most in demand compliance frameworks. With over 200 integrations, you can easily monitor and secure the tools your business relies on. For a limited time offer of US$1,000 off, go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠www.vanta.com/tsp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Get your question in for our next Q&A episode: https://forms.gle/NZzgNWVLiFmwvFA2A The Startup Podcast website: https://www.tsp.show/episodes/Learn more about Chris and YanivWork 1:1 with Chris: http://chrissaad.com/advisory/ Follow Chris on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrissaad/ Follow Yaniv on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ybernstein/Producer: Justin McArthur https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-mcarthurAssistant Producer: Steph Hefferan https://www.linkedin.com/in/steph-heff/Intro Voice: Jeremiah Owyang https://web-strategist.com/