The Real Unemployment Rate is 4.6%

On this episode of The Rate Guy: a Kalshi cautionary tale, what it is about the Fed meeting that has JP on edge, the 10T level experts consider catastrophic, and the top three things you should be watching—not just for this meeting, but moving forward. For the deep dive into monetarism that JP references, check out last week's newsletter: Monetarism for Dummies

We discuss this week's CPI report because we think it could be a big driver of interest rates not just for this month but really how the Market receives the Fed's reaction function to the inflation related to oil.

On this episode of The Rate Guy you get a story of JP wrestling with a bat (yes a real live bat), his thoughts on the market's frustration with Warsh and what the real unemployment rate is and why. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk inflation, GDP, Jobs and what's really killing caps right now. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's FOMC meeting and cover any happenings, surprise statements and of course Warsh's tie color.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about last week's jobs number, Warsh's first ever Fed meeting, what position are traders pouring into at a historic level and how a resolution in Iran affect the 10T. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a trip down memory lane. Revisiting similar economic times in history to build a framework for what the Fed might do this year. We take a look at GDP, Money Supply, Inflation, Oil...all of the key touchpoints and which of those we should be payint the most attention to. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the Market is laser focused on right now and what needs to happen to bring relief to the 10T.

We're back baby and we're excited about it....well JP's not, but he's got no choice. Today we talk about inflation, Jobs, the new Fed chair, 10T, Caps, Raising interest rates....all of the things! Thanks for your patience with us during our haitus, we break down why during the first 4 minutes. See you next week!  

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the extreme volatility of last week, what it means for rate caps, the 10T and what to be on the look out from the Fed in the upcoming weeks.