A Cut This Week But None Next Year?

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting.  For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screenshot. (if I could insert a facepalm emoji here I would)

On this episdoe of The Rate Guy, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, JP runs through a variety of things he's thankful for with his mix of sincerity and sarcasm that we all know and love.  Check out the fancy Private Social Club that we talk about and visited in Atlanta, The Perlant, here. If you want to see Philly Elementary kids go off on Dallas player themed heavy bags (yeah, you read that right) click here. Hope you all have a great Holiday this week!

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP's love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.

On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead.  See you on 11/10! Here is the link to JP's recap in the Pensford Newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation" didn't find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps and caps.

On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen.  For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter.  And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out www.FireJamesFranklin.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.