Episode 336: Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: Why the Lake Chad Basin Matters for Global Security with Cedric de Coning and Andrew E. Yaw Tchie

In this episode, we host Professor Mark Galeotti to explore how Russia wages political warfare against the West beyond the conventional battlefield. Drawing on decades of work on Russian power, intelligence, organised crime, and state coercion, Professor Galeotti explains why Moscow’s challenge to Europe is not best understood simply through hard power but rather through sabotage, disinformation, criminal proxies, cyberactivity, and the deliberate exploitation of Western vulnerabilities. He also reflects on how Putin’s system works today, why the Kremlin so often misreads both its adversaries and itself, and what episodes such as the Prigozhin mutiny reveal about the strengths and fragilities of the Russian state.We discuss why “political warfare” may be a more useful term than “hybrid war" and how Russia blends state and criminal networks. From sabotage plots and outsourced coercion to red-teaming, resilience, insider threats, and the use of AI to identify vulnerabilities, this conversation offers a timely guide to how Russia applies pressure below the threshold of open war – and what Western states, institutions, and organisations need to do to prepare more intelligently.Professor Mark Galeotti is one of the leading experts on modern Russia, with particular expertise in its security politics, intelligence services, organised crime, and political warfare. He is Director of Mayak Intelligence, an Honorary Professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague, and an Associate Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. He is a prolific author of more than 30 books on Russia, writes regularly for The Times and The Spectator, is a frequent contributor to RUSI and Foreign Policy, and hosts the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical instability and organised crime to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

In this episode of The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen speaks with Cedric de Coning and Andrew E. Yaw Tchie about the complex relationship between climate change, conflict, and human security in the Lake Chad Basin. Once a vital lifeline for millions of people across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, the region has become a powerful example of how environmental pressure, weak governance, displacement, and violent extremism can intersect to create a complex and evolving security challenge. The discussion explores why climate change is often described as a “threat multiplier.” Rather than directly causing conflict, environmental change is intensifying existing pressures on livelihoods, food security, and water access. The conversation highlights how droughts, floods, and rising temperatures affect farmers, pastoralists, and fishing communities, while also interacting with long-standing governance challenges and the ongoing insurgency involving groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province. Drawing on their recent research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Cedric and Andrew explain how climate pressures are reshaping social dynamics in the region. The project is funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).Cedric de Coning is a Research Professor whose work focuses on adaptive peacebuilding and the climate–peace nexus. Andrew E. Yaw Tchie is a Senior Research Fellow at NUPI, with research focusing on peace operations, stabilisation, and security cooperation across Africa. The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all Tell us what you liked!

Iran is facing what many experts describe as a looming state of “water bankruptcy”,  a crisis where demand has so profoundly outstripped supply that the very foundations of economic stability, social cohesion, and national security are under strain. From drying reservoirs in Tehran to collapsing aquifers and land subsistence, water is no longer just an environmental issue, it’s a political one. Into Iran’s fifth consecutive year of drought, the president has openly warned that we may have no other choice but to move the capital if sufficient rainfall doesn’t come. And to unpack what is happening in Iran, we are joined by Milad Jafari. He is an Iranian political scientist, rearcher and policy analyst specialising in water diplomacy and governance with a water science and engineering background, specialising in water governance issues in Tehran and transboundary challenges of the Helmand and Yarmouk rivers. He serves as an editorial board member at World Water Policy, a member of the Iranian Water Diplomacy Associate and a youth associate with the Blue Peace Middle East. The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

This episode with Rachel Minyoung Lee examines the evolving risk landscape surrounding North Korea, moving beyond headlines focused solely on nuclear escalation to explore the country’s broader strategic behaviour. We discuss how Pyongyang balances military signalling with pragmatic decision making, why weapons tests and military exercises are often calibrated rather than impulsive, and how sanctions, limited trade, and economic constraints shape the regime’s choices. The conversation also explores the role of domestic stability, regime survival, and external pressure in shaping North Korea’s actions, and why the timing of diplomatic or military moves is often driven by opportunity rather than ideology alone. Together, we consider what the North Korean case reveals about risk perception, strategic signalling, and the limits of international pressure in managing one of the world’s most opaque security challenges.Rachel Minyoung Lee is a Senior Fellow with the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North, and co-chair of the North Korea Economic Forum at George Washington University’s Institute for Korean Studies. She previously served for two decades as a North Korea collection expert and analyst with the United States government’s Open Source Enterprise, where she specialised in analysing North Korean media and leadership messaging. She later led engagement initiatives at the Open Nuclear Network in Vienna and served as a Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii. Her work focuses on North Korean strategic messaging, regime behaviour, and the political economy of the Korean Peninsula.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

In this episode, we host Professor Sir David Omand to explore crisis management, counterterrorism, and intelligence at the highest levels of the British state. Drawing on a career that includes senior roles at GCHQ, the Home Office, the Cabinet Office, and the Joint Intelligence Committee, Sir David reflects on how governments prepare for crises, why some threats are missed despite warning signs, and what effective decision-making looks like when events move faster than institutions.We discuss the origins and logic of the UK’s CONTEST counterterrorism strategy, the importance of resilience and normality in crisis management, and the challenge of making sound judgements under conditions of uncertainty, ambiguity and institutional pressure. From warning failure and public trust to societal risk and the practical realities of managing national emergencies, this conversation offers valuable lessons in how governments and organisations can think more clearly, respond more effectively, and build resilience before the next crisis hits.Professor Sir David Omand is a Visiting Professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, a member of the editorial board of the academic journal Intelligence and National Security, and a member of the advisory board of Paladin Capital, which invests in cyber security start-ups.He has held senior posts across the UK’s security, intelligence, and defence institutions, including Director of GCHQ, Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, and the first UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator in the Cabinet Office, responsible to the Prime Minister for the professional health of the intelligence community, national counterterrorism strategy, and ‘homeland security’. He served for seven years on the UK Joint Intelligence Committee and writes widely on intelligence, counterterrorism strategy, resilience, and the ethics of secret intelligence.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

In this episode of The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen speaks with Dr Rupert Stuart-Smith about the rapid expansion of climate litigation and what it means for corporate strategy, financial stability, and international risk. The discussion explores how climate lawsuits have evolved from targeted environmental challenges into a structural feature of the climate transition, reshaping legal duties, redistributing financial exposure, and creating new forms of liability for governments, corporations, and financial institutions.The conversation highlights how climate litigation is not confined to fossil fuel producers alone. While major emitters remain central targets, claims are increasingly extending to banks, investors, and companies across the economy whose strategies are misaligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. He explains how advances in attribution science are allowing courts to trace emissions through to specific climate harms, strengthening causal arguments and narrowing the space for uncertainty-based defences. Even where claims are unsuccessful, companies face material consequences through legal costs, reputational damage, investor scrutiny, and heightened disclosure obligations.Find out more about how courts are beginning to accept, in principle, that corporations may bear proportional responsibility for climate impacts, and how this possibility is reshaping risk assessments. The episode examines the implications of cases against companies such as RWE and Shell, as well as emerging litigation targeting financial institutions for the emissions they indirectly finance. It considers whether investors are "flying blind" in the face of evolving liability standards and how fragmented jurisdictional approaches complicate global risk modelling.Dr Rupert Stuart-Smith is Deputy Director of Climate Science and the Law and Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme at the University of Oxford. His research sits at the intersection of climate science, legal accountability, and financial risk. In addition to his academic research, Rupert has advised international legal bodies, including the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, on the role of climate science in judicial decision-making.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, caTell us what you liked!

In this episode of the International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen speaks with Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon.The conversation moves beyond the hype to examine the structural drivers of today’s nuclear competition, ranging from missile defence and deep precision strike capabilities to AI-enabled intelligence systems and shifting alliance politics.Find Ankit Panda’s book The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon here: https://www.amazon.com/New-Nuclear-Age-Precipice-Armageddon/dp/1509557466The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

This episode with Hamid Khalafallah examines the current state of Sudan’s civil war beyond shifting battlefield developments. We explore how patterns of territorial control have altered the structure of authority across the country, why governance capacity remains limited even where military advances have occurred, and how elite bargaining and the “political marketplace” logic have become further militarised. The discussion considers how prolonged conflict has reshaped civilian survival strategies, how grassroots organisations continue to sustain humanitarian response amid institutional collapse, and what Sudan’s trajectory suggests about fragmentation, regional spillover, and the risks of reconstruction without political settlement.Hamid Khalafallah is a PhD researcher at the Global Development Institute at the University of Manchester, where he focuses on grassroots movements and political transitions across Africa. He has worked extensively in Sudan with international organisations on governance and development and has been an active participant in Sudan’s pro-democracy movement. His research examines participatory governance, elite bargaining, state fragility, and the political economy of conflict in Sudan and the wider region.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

This episode with Elizabeth Bullock examines the lived reality of Russia’s modern warfare, drawing on her three years working in frontline Ukraine.From evacuating civilians under fire to navigating the evolving threats of drones, hypersonic missiles, and weaponised infrastructure, Elizabeth provides an unflinching look at how war shapes both society and strategy and what it reveals about the future of global security.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

In this episode of The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen speaks with Professor Tim Lang about food security as a systemic risk embedded within highly interdependent global supply, trade, and governance networks. The conversation explores how deeply integrated supply chains, energy dependency, trade regimes, and regulation shape national food resilience in an era of climate volatility and geopolitical disruption.Find out more about how efficiency-driven “just-in-time” models prioritised cost reduction over redundancy, leaving food systems exposed to cascading shocks. The discussion explores how export controls, regulatory divergence, and concentrated supply chains redistribute risk rather than contain it, and why national governments remain accountable for outcomes they no longer fully control.The episode also examines the tension between sovereignty and shared governance, particularly within the EU, and considers whether existing risk assessment tools are calibrated for systemic disruption rather than isolated supply failures.Finally, the conversation turns to civil preparedness and strategic exposure: whether food is treated as critical infrastructure, how geopolitical competition is reshaping access to staples and inputs, and which indicators policymakers should monitor as climate stress and political fragmentation intensify pressures on global food governance.Tell us what you liked!