Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

Today we're sharing a bonus episode from the WASSAP podcast, where Alan joins hosts Désirée Custers and Hubert Kinkoh to explore the growing interconnectedness of the Horn of Africa, the Gulf, and the wider Red Sea region.The conversation traces how Gulf engagement in the Horn has evolved over the past decade, examining the impact of Gulf rivalries, the war in Sudan, tensions in Yemen, and the fallout from the Iran crisis on regional security dynamics. Alan discusses how conflicts across the Red Sea increasingly spill over into the Horn, creating new patterns of competition, cooperation, and strategic alignment.A central theme of the episode is the relationship between regional geopolitics and state agency. The discussion highlights how actors in the Horn of Africa navigate external rivalries and partnerships while pursuing their own interests and ambitions. Looking ahead, Alan reflects on the challenges facing regional diplomacy and why the growing integration of the Horn, the Gulf, and the wider West Asia region remains one of the most important trends shaping the region's future.About the WASSAP podcastThe WASSAP: the Africa - West Asia Podcast translates the findings of a three-year research project on West Asian (Gulf)–Sub-Saharan African relations into an accessible, engaging audio format. It explores how economic, political, cultural, religious, and security ties between selected Gulf countries and African partners are evolving and why these shifts matter globally, particularly for Europe.Hosts of the podcast are Desirée Custers (project manager, CARPO) & Hubert Kinkoh (Senior Researcher, CARPO)About the WASSAP projectThe project explores the multi-dimensional and complex relations between selected Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iran) and four Sub-Saharan countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia). It aims to deconstruct and analyze their economic networks, cultural and religious affiliations, and political and security cooperation. Based on empirical research, the project provides a better understanding of Gulf-African exchange, its challenges and opportunities, as well as its implications for Europe. The project is financed by the Robert Bosch Foundation and will run for three years.Shownotes:The Horn podcast: https://www.crisisgroup.org/pod/africa/horn-africa/hornMore information on the host:Desirée Custers: https://carpo-bonn.org/en/about-us/team/team/desiree-custersHubert Kinkoh: https://carpo-bonn.org/en/about-us/team/team/hubert-kinkohFollow the CARPO on:https://www.linkedin.com/company/carpo-–-center-for-applied-research-in-partnership-with-the-orient-e-v/posts/?feedView=allhttps://www.instagram.com/carpo_bonn/Editor Marco Bussi:https://www.marcobussi.de/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk and senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to explore why Yemen’s truce is unravelling and what renewed fighting means for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. They examine how stalled Saudi-Houthi negotiations and the U.S.-Israel war on Iran are contributing to the latest escalation, and how Houthi attacks and threats against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait add to pressure on Saudi oil exports. They then discuss emerging Saudi-backed security partnerships, including the Red Sea maritime coalition and the R4 grouping of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan, exploring their implications for the Horn. Finally, they assess stalled Sudan diplomacy, the Houthis’ ties with armed groups in Africa and the risk that Yemen’s conflict could spread across the Red Sea.For more, check out our latest statement “Closing the New War Front in Yemen” this week’s Hold Your Fire! episode “Will the Houthis Shut Down the Bab al-Mandab Strait?”, Yasmine’s commentary “Can a New Initiative Help the Gulf Region Escape the U.S.-Israel-Iran Trap?” and our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis, about the possible end of UNSOS, the UN logistics operation supporting African Union troops and Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab and what may come next.In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis about the U.S. decision to oppose renewed United Nations logistical support for the 19-year-old African Union military mission in Somalia. Samira explains why UN logistical support has been critical to the AU mission as well as to Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab, and why its loss could leave some areas outside Mogadishu increasingly vulnerable. They also discuss what could happen if no solution or stopgap measure is found, and the 12,000-strong African Union mission ceases to function by the end of the year. They discuss how such a scenario could shift the balance of power on the battlefield between the federal government and Al-Shabaab. They also assess whether Mogadishu’s pursuit of bilateral security partnerships could fill the void left by a weakened or defunct AU mission.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed, former senior officials for the African Union’s mediation team, on how the split between Sudan and South Sudan fifteen years ago led to two failed states, the high-level diplomacy at the time to prevent all-out war, and whether such mediation is still possible today. In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined again by Abdul Mohammed and Alex de Waal, who worked together for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) for Sudan and South Sudan, to talk about the inside diplomacy surrounding the separation of Sudan and South Sudan, how those dramatic events led to the tragedies in both countries today, and the state of mediation in today’s fragmented world. De Waal is co-author of a new book The Sudans that tells the account of the African Union’s major mediation initiative under President Thabo Mbeki tasked with helping mediate Sudan’s split. Alan, Abdul and Alex discuss some of the untold history of that period, why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today’s fragmented regional geopolitics.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Payton Knopf about the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar Federico Donelli, author of the recent book Power Competition in the Red Sea, to assess the shifting geopolitics of the Red Sea region. They trace the region’s long history as an arena for great-power competition before turning to the new scramble that has reshaped it since the turn of the millennium, as Gulf states, Türkiye and other middle powers compete over ports, bases, supply lines and political influence. They examine how the UAE-Saudi rivalry is playing out in the region, how Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access has reshuffled regional alignments, and how Houthi attacks have drawn Israel deeper into Red Sea security. They also consider Europe’s weight as a strategic actor and what future stability could look like in a region shaped by ad hoc coalitions, fluid alignments and non-state actors.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more, check out Federico’s book Power Competition in the Red Sea: Testing the Post-Liberal International Order and our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Babatunde Afolabi, former Africa Director at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), now Director of Political Affairs at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, about mediation and conflict resolution in the Horn of Africa. They discuss HD’s discreet work facilitating dialogue between conflict parties, and why the Horn’s history, politics and geopolitics make regional cooperation such a challenge. They turn to Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where the Pretoria agreement that halted two years of devastating war risks unravelling, and to Oromia, where HD- and IGAD-facilitated talks between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army came close to a deal before collapsing. They also discuss Sudan’s hard-to-resolve war, prospects for dialogue with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and why locally grounded dialogue remains essential to ending wars.For more, check out our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar and author Samson Abebe Bezabeh, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, to discuss Djibouti’s domestic politics and shifting role in a turbulent region. They explore Djibouti’s history, its internal political dynamics and uncertainty over the succession to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has ruled the country for nearly three decades. They discuss Djibouti’s role as a “garrison state”, how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access. They also examine Djibouti’s fallout with the UAE over a cancelled port management contract, how that pushed Djibouti closer to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and whether tensions with Somaliland could become a new flashpoint.For more, check out Samson’s book Djibouti: A Political History and our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by journalist and author Nesrine Malik. They take stock of Sudan’s war after more than three years of fighting and consider where the conflict might be headed. They discuss what the wars in Sudan and Gaza reveal about the collapse of the rules-based order, as the U.S. becomes more withdrawn and European capitals hesitate to act decisively. They assess how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting the Horn, and how fuel and fertiliser shortages could affect African economies. Finally, they talk about what might come next for the global order and human rights, the prospect of middle powers uniting in the face of global disorder and “Equator”, the new magazine Malik helped found.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more, check out Equator and our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, to discuss the deeper implications of Somalia’s new election crisis. They discuss the looming electoral standoff as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term is set to expire on 15 May, and why this latest dispute could prove more fateful than previous election crises. They unpack tensions between Mogadishu and federal member states over constitutional changes, elections and the future of Somalia’s federal system. They look at the looming end of the African Union stabilisation mission and what that will mean for coordinating collective support for the federal government’s war with Al-Shabaab. They discuss the rivalries among external powers and how these risk exacerbating Somalia’s own internal fissures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.