The Hundred Year Pivot Ep. 2 - Neil Howe

In the second episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I talk with the man whose work inspired us to set off on this journey together – the co-author of seminal book The Fourth Turning and author of The Fourth Turning is Here, Neil Howe. What follows is a timely and thought-provoking conversation on generational theory and the turbulent state of not just the United States, but the entire world today. From rising partisanship and institutional decay to shifting cultural norms around religion, gender, and substance use, Neil unpacks the patterns he sees repeating—and what they might mean for the road ahead. We explore the defining characteristics of a Fourth Turning, why America and the rest of the world may already be deep into one, and what the implications could be both at home and on the world stage—including the possibility of a major confrontation with China. This is a deep dive into the forces reshaping our society with one of their keenest observers—and a disturbing look at what history tells us might come next. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In this thought-provoking episode, I’m joined by Tian Yang of Variant Perception to explore the deep structural forces reshaping the global economy and geopolitical order. From the unintended consequences of Donald Trump’s tariff policies to China’s underappreciated resilience and strategic foresight, Tian offers a fresh, data-driven perspective on the shifting balance of power between East and West. The conversation moves beyond headlines to examine how innovation, manufacturing re-shoring, and changing reserve dynamics are altering the investment landscape. Tian also highlights the growing divergence in policymaking philosophies between major economies and the investment opportunities arising from those fractures before highlighting Europe’s fiscal constraints, the risks of financial repression in the US, and the emergence of a CapEx-driven supercycle. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

To celebrate the 100th episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m delighted to welcome my friend Lynne Bryan Phipps for a discussion unlike any of the 99 that preceded it as she and I take a personal journey into the incredible world of Integrative Equine Therapy (IET). Lynne – an ordained minister, architect and psychologist and the founder of one of Rhode Island’s leading charter schools – also founded Beachwood Centre, an extraordinary place where Lynne and her staff provide help for those suffering from trauma, anxiety, PTSD, grief and other stress-related issues, with the aid of horses. My own personal experience working with Lynne opened my eyes to something remarkable and, in this conversation, we talk about the remarkable work being done at Beachwood, the extraordinary data collected by Brown University, demonstrating the incredible healing power of IET and how (and why) horses are a transformational factor when it comes to this kind of work. This is a conversation you won’t forget. At the end of the conversation you’ll find ways in which you can help Lynne continue the important work being done at Beachwood. So, if you’ve enjoyed my work, and you’re in a position to make a contribution – no matter how small – please consider donating to this wonderful cause. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

This is a brand new podcast series for which I’ve teamed up with my good friend Demetri Kofinas, to explore and understand the changing world around us. Welcome to The Hundred Year Pivot. This joint effort is based on a shared belief that we are living through a once-in-a-century reordering - geopolitical, economic, moral, even spiritual. Everything – our families, societies, and governments- depends on us getting it right. Demetri and I invite you to join us as we develop novel maps and investment frameworks to help us navigate: • The breakdown of our existing political and social systems of organization and control • The emergence of new economic, financial, and monetary trading blocks • The reprioritization of national and economic security • The channeling of national savings into a new military and technological arms race • The development of a new investment paradigm with historic implications for investors Together, Demetri and I will be speaking with the smartest, most thoughtful people we know to help us chart a path through this gathering storm as we seek to position ourselves, our organizations, and our families for the changes to come. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I sit down with Marko Papic of BCA Research to explore the intricate interplay between geopolitics and the global economy. Marko, a good friend and seasoned geopolitical strategist, walks us through his invaluable framework for understanding the preferences and constraints of policymakers—a critical lens for navigating today’s rapidly shifting dynamics—before we dive into trade wars and regional integration in a conversation which delves into how political decisions are shaping financial markets and economic opportunities around the world. Also discussed the Trump administration’s use of tariffs and trade wars, which Marko analyzes through the prism of U.S. constraints compared to other nations, and Europe’s unique position to capitalize on current geopolitical shifts, particularly through deeper integration and increased investment prospects. Meanwhile, Marko explains why China faces significant challenges in stimulating domestic demand while grappling with risks such as potential conflict over Taiwan. Marko’s insights provide an invaluable guide to understanding the complexities of today’s geopolitical landscape and their far-reaching implications for economies and markets worldwide. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

This terrific discussion with Kathleen Thelen examines the historical origins and rise of large retail chains and e-commerce platforms in the United States, tracing the parallels between the business models of early mail-order retailers like Sears Roebuck and modern companies like Amazon. Kathleen explainss how antitrust laws and the fragmented regulatory environment in the US enabled the growth of these large, low-cost retailers by making it difficult for alternative models like consumer cooperatives to gain a foothold. We focus on the reliance on low-wage labor and how the prioritizing of low prices over other considerations has become deeply embedded in the American consumer economy and, as the retail landscape has shifted with the rise of Amazon and other online shopping, she suggests that this business model remains difficult to dislodge due to the coalition of interests – manufacturers, third-party sellers, and consumers themselves – that have come to depend on these large retail platforms. The importance of the centrality of the American consumer to the US economy has significant implications for the future as factors like inflation, tighter credit, and labor organizing threaten to challenge the dominance of the current retail giants. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Joining Fleck and me for the latest episode of The End Game is our mutual friend, Fred Hickey, the renowned High Tech Strategist. As always, Fted offers a compelling analysis of the gold and gold mining markets and, with gold tripling in price since its 2015 bottom and, while recent surges have been driven by geopolitical turmoil, money printing, and central bank buying, Fred cautions that the gold market may be overbought in the short-term and could face a correction. When it comes to gold mining stocks, Fred is highly selective, favoring well-run companies in safe jurisdictions with high-grade deposits and conservative management and he runs us through his favourites in the sector before the conversation shifts to Fred’s skepticism about the recent hype surrounding AI and generative AI. He views the space as an unsustainable bubble, driven by excessive spending and deteriorating economics at major tech companies and makes several bold prediction around how the AI bubble could lead to a broader market downturn. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Joining me for the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast is my old mate Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry and, in a market increasingly driven by speculation and the allure of quick riches, we discuss whether investors are playing a dangerous game as a “gambler’s mentality” grips Wall Street – making excessive risk and leverage the norm. Tommy also challenges the prevailing narrative of ever-rising stock prices and questions the disconnect between market valuations and the underlying fundamentals of many companies. From Nvidia’s AI-fueled ascent to the precarious perch of Tesla’s insane valuation, Tommy delves into the potential for market volatility to return with a vengeance, and the complex challenges facing the Federal Reserve and the economic policies of the incoming Trump administration. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In a thought-provoking return for The Narrative Game, Dr. Ben Hunt and I engage in a candid conversation about the soul of America, exploring the unsettling trends eroding the nation’s moral compass. We dissect the alarming shift toward prioritizing power, efficiency, and leverage over traditional values like justice, liberty, and the common good and together we paint a picture of a society inching closer to totalitarianism, grappling with the rejection of the ideal that the U.S. should be a moral force on the world stage. Beyond the diagnosis, we offer potential paths forward in these challenging times, as our discussion delves into the importance of building strong, trusted communities and finding solace in religion and spirituality, even for those who may not consider themselves traditionally religious. We highlight the urgent need to combat the erosion of community and shared values, fostering integrity and purpose amidst the rising tide of polarization and cynicism. This episode is a call to action, urging listeners to seek deeper connections and moral guidance to navigate the turbulent waters ahead. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, Ronan Manly joins me for a deep dive into the fascinating world of the gold market. We explore its rich history and intricate structure, from the pivotal roles of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the COMEX futures exchange in shaping global trade, to the concept of ‘unallocated gold’ and the fractional reserve system that underpins much of the market. We also examine the recent surge in central bank demand for physical gold, a trend that’s straining delivery systems and causing delays at institutions like the Bank of England. Against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, we discuss how these dynamics could signal a shift away from the US dollar-based monetary system, potentially positioning gold as a cornerstone of international trade or even as backing for new regional currencies. Finally, we tackle the possibility of a seismic event in the paper gold market—where pricing power might move from London to exchanges like Shanghai—leading to a divergence between paper and physical gold prices. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.