What Most People Get Wrong About China's Iran Strategy

Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent. Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode Inside Washington's Africa policymaking Trump's changing approach to Africa The China "debt trap" debate U.S.-China competition in Africa Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy What's next for U.S.-Africa relations? Show Notes: Sign up to The Expatriach Substack Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries. Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's potential gains from the Iran war Energy insecurity and the global transition shift Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains Is China the biggest winner of the crisis? Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory The China-Global South Project: Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action by Li Shuo The China-Global South Project: Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty by Li Shuo Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan. But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals. Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode Why Brazil became China's top investment destination BYD, EVs, and China's growing auto dominance Chinese investments in Brazil's energy and mining sectors How U.S.-China tensions are reshaping Latin America Brazil's role in China's Global South strategy The future of China-Brazil trade and industrial ties Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals. There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But senior officials in Beijing have also made clear that they have little interest in taking on the full responsibilities and obligations that come with traditional global leadership. In a recent Foreign Policy article, Jeremy Friedman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, explored the limits and ambitions of China's expanding international power. He joins Eric to discuss what China wants… and what it does not want from a changing global order. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's global ambitions The future of U.S. power Why Beijing rejects hegemony Taiwan and regional security Trade, tech, and critical minerals The emerging world order Show Notes: Foreign Policy: How Far Do China's Ambitions Reach? by Jeremy Friedman East Asia Forum: China's ambitions are narrower than Washington thinks by David Kang, Jackie Wong & Zenobia Chan Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth      

President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is. In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian leadership would make major national security concessions at Beijing's request. William Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to unpack what U.S. officials misunderstand about China's relationship with Iran, why Beijing is reluctant to use its economic leverage aggressively, and how China itself is vulnerable to the broader economic fallout from the war. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode Why Trump wanted China's help on Iran The limits of China's leverage over Tehran How Iran views Beijing and Washington differently Why oil is only part of China's concern The economic risks of a prolonged war What the Trump-Xi summit revealed about global power dynamics Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: China and the Iran War: The Logic and Limitations of China's Middle East Diplomacy by William Figuerora The China-Global South Project: Through Allegory, China Uses AI to Shape Its Narrative of the Iran Conflict by William Figuerora The China-Global South Project: Social Media Commentators Are Misreading the China Angle in the U.S.–Israeli War With Iran by William Figuerora Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China operates the world's largest fleet of deep-sea research vessels, with more than 40 ships officially tasked with civilian scientific missions. But an investigation by CNN and the environmental news outlet Mongabay found that many of these ships appear to operate in ways more in line with intelligence gathering than with purely scientific research. The CNN/Mongabay investigation tracked eight vessels over a five-year period and found that they spent very little time conducting their stated objective to do deep-sea mining research and instead, according to marine trafficking data, logged extensive trips in strategic waterways and sensitive military zones that could prove critical in the event of a future maritime conflict with the United States. Kara Fox, a senior reporter at CNN, and Elizabeth Alberts, a senior staff writer at Mongabay, led the joint investigation and join Eric to discuss what their findings do... and don't reveal about China's fleet of deep-sea research vessels. Show Notes: CNN: China's growing influence in the Pacific is 5,000 meters deep by Kara Fox, Elizabeth Alberts, Lou Robinson and Byron Manley Mongabay: China's deep-sea mining fleet may also track US submarines by Elizabeth Alberts and Kara Fox   *]:pointer-events-auto R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-6a0571e7-0984-832b-ab1b-026d3a267686-0" data-turn-id-container= "request-6a0571e7-0984-832b-ab1b-026d3a267686-0" data-testid= "conversation-turn-20" data-scroll-anchor="false" data-turn= "assistant"> 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's growing fleet of deep-sea research vessels Allegations of dual-use scientific and intelligence activities Deep-sea mining and the race for critical minerals Why India, the U.S., and others are increasingly concerned The strategic importance of undersea mapping and maritime routes Environmental risks linked to deep-sea mining exploration Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

When Panama's Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's operation of two ports on either side of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, President Jose Raul Mulina said at the time that he wasn't too concerned about China retaliating. Now, several months later, Mulina and other Panamanian officials are becoming increasingly concerned that this is precisely what's happening after China detained dozens of Panamanian-flagged vessels or "inspections." Separately, China called on the two shipping companies, Maersk and MSC, slated to take over operations of the Panamanian ports vacated by CK Hutchison, to reconsider — insinuating there could be severe consequences if they don't comply. Pedro Armada, managing partner at Armada Risk Consulting, is following the events closely from Panama City and joins Eric to discuss the increasingly difficult position the government finds itself in between the U.S. and an increasingly assertive China. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's response to Panama's port ruling Rising tensions around the Panama Canal Delays targeting Panamanian-flagged ships U.S. pressure on Chinese influence Maersk and MSC caught in the middle The bigger U.S.-China rivalry Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition. We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders from South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and dozens of other countries crisscross the globe at a frenetic pace to build what many are describing as a new middle-power coalition. But Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute, argued in a Foreign Policy column that it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for a coalition like this to succeed. Sarang joins Eric to explain why divergent north-south interests will be very hard to overcome. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode Rapid global realignment among middle powers Declining trust in U.S.-led institutions BRICS and alternative power coalitions China's growing Global South influence Transactional diplomacy and diversification What the next world order may look like Show Notes: Foreign Policy: Can Middle Powers Gel? by Sarang Shidore The New York Times: American Supremacy Is Over, and Something New Is Coming by Sarang Shidore Politico: Trump Is Demolishing the Global Order. Here's What Might Come Next. Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for a highly anticipated summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Trump will be returning to a region he's personally transformed through his challenges to the international order, tariffs, and now the Iran war that's hit Asia's energy sector especially hard. The U.S.-led security architecture across the Asia-Pacific is also showing signs of real strain, as alliances fray and the institutions set up to counter China are on the verge of collapse. Derek Grossman, a prominent U.S.-Asia scholar at the University of Southern California and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Asia-Pacific, argues that the Quad security partnership is now "on the brink of extinction." Derek joins Eric to discuss how 18 months of Trump's foreign policy have reshaped Asia's security landscape. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode Trump-Xi summit and the future of U.S.-China relations Taiwan tensions and fears over U.S. security commitments The possible collapse of the Quad alliance strategy How Southeast Asian countries are balancing China and the U.S. China's growing influence in Indonesia, Thailand, and ASEAN Why Asian allies are questioning America's long-term role Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: The Asia-Pacific's New Oil Order by Derek Grossman Foreign Policy: Trump's Southeast Asia Trade Deals Are in Limbo by Derek Grossman Hinrich Foundation: Balancing act or breaking point? Indonesia's trade policy amid US-China rivalry by Derek Grossman Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth    

Ties between China and Vietnam appear to be improving across every front. Vietnam is selling more to China, while China is investing more in its southern neighbor. Even on thorny territorial issues in the South China Sea, the two sides said they're talking through the differences. And last month, Vietnamese leader To Lam traveled to China in his capacity as both General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the country, a model many say was inspired by the Chinese political structure. All of this has prompted discussion among some Vietnamese analysts that Hanoi is swinging in Beijing's direction. But Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in Vietnamese political science at Boston College, strongly disagrees. Khang joins Eric to discuss why Hanoi's longstanding commitment to non-alignment among the major powers remains the bedrock of Vietnamese foreign policy. Show Notes: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction by Nguyen Khac Giang The Diplomat: The Myth of Vietnam's Tilt Toward China by Khang Vu The Diplomat: Interpreting the Future of Vietnam-China Relations Through the 2026 Joint Statement by Hai Hong Nguyen and Vu Quy Son 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode Vietnam–China relations: perception vs. reality The "Four No's" and non-aligned foreign policy Tho Lam's Beijing visit and key takeaways South China Sea tensions and regional dynamics Tech, trade, and Huawei: strategic hedging Navigating U.S.–China rivalry and global pressure Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth