S2 Ep1017: Catherine Rampell: Trump's Tariffmageddon

Trump has effectively imposed a trade embargo on China, which means that after the inventory runs out, American retail will soon dry up. And since Europeans are already bypassing U.S. military contractors to beef up their defense spending —El Salvador is our only ally now— Trump is likely to do something desperate, like firing the Fed chair or seizing Greenland. American presidents decades from now will still be cleaning up what Trump did to this country in 2025. David Frum breaks down the insanity and stupidity of the vision behind the tariffs regime as well as the deep feelings of betrayal in Canada. If globalism means peace, prosperity, and commerce, then let's be globalists.  David Frum joins guest host Jonathan V. Last for the weekend pod. show notes David's new Atlantic podcast David on screw manufacturing and the absurdity of Trump's tariffs David on how the tariffs will make smuggling great again Tim's playlist

Just before he paused the tariffs on Wednesday, an unusual spike in activity on the S&P 500 prompted speculation that Trump was orchestrating an insider trading scheme. After the markets closed, he joked with *the* Charles Schwab about how the financier had made $2.5 billion in trades that day. Meanwhile, Trump ordered the DOJ to investigate two former officials he regards as enemies—this comes on the heels of his efforts to intimidate law firms from taking on clients who oppose him. Plus, Trump's long obsession with white South Africans, and do Democrats listen too much to grassroots activist groups? Andrew Weissmann and Patrick Gaspard join Tim Miller. show notes Andrew's Substack Rep. Steve Horsford questioning whether the tariff pause was market manipulation

The White House is pumping out a lot of happy talk about countries wanting to make deals over the tariffs, but the tumult Trump has created has spread to the bond market. And that may be a sign that he has people so spooked about the U.S. economy that our Treasuries are no longer seen as a safe bet. Meanwhile, China has a lot of leverage here and may be using it.  Plus, the Democrats' candidate recruiter for the midterms, Colorado's Jason Crow, discusses how to win back working class voters.  Catherine Rampell and Rep. Jason Crow join Tim Miller. show notes Catherine's column, "Who will tell Trump he’s naked?" Catherine's column on the Senate GOP tax plan NYT profile of Jason Crow 

When it comes to biomedical research, America is already great. We are the world's leader in the field. But the Trump administration is gutting research and innovation on things like cancer, Alzheimer's, and arthritis—and the amputation of our scientific expertise under RFK, Jr. has been about as thoughtful as the tariffs rollout. Meanwhile, when it comes to the developing budget bill, Medicaid is getting some surprising red state support from people like Josh Hawley. Plus, when people willfully choose ignorance as a way to cope with an uncertain world. Professor Mark Lilla and The Bulwark's Jonathan Cohn join Tim Miller.  show notes Mark Lilla's new book, "Ignorance and Bliss: On Wanting Not to Know" Mark's website Jonathan on Trump's cuts at child-care programs like Head Start

Part of the reason for the market bloodbath is because the finance wizzes didn't factor in that Trump would actually do the truly moronic thing he kept saying he would. Their shock over his recklessness is intensifying the crash. Meanwhile, a trio of administration fools trying to defend the tariffs—Lutnick, Bessent, and Hassett—showed there is no grand design to the trade war, White House infighting is getting hot enough that even Elon is subtweeting Trump, and the folks we elected over on the Hill could actually do something to try to stop the market carnage. Plus, new reporting on our government's kidnapping of migrants, Republicans in North Carolina are trying to steal a supreme court seat, and where is JD Vance? Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes JVL on the end of the American Age  Lauren on the backlash against Dems in major law firms who are bending the knee  60 Minutes segment on migrants sent to the Salvadoran penal colony  Tim's 'Bulwark Take' responding to the 60 Minutes report  Tim talking with AEI's Stan Veuger about Trump's terrible tariff math The book, "The Captive Mind" by Polish poet Czeslaw Milosz 

It's been great to live in America since World War II, but Trump is in the process of blowing up that whole order. Even Canada is looking to lead a new alliance, because how can other countries trust us after voters put the stupidest convicted American back in charge? And never forget that Russia is not on the tariff list—despite the fact that the US does more trade with Russia than a number of other countries on the list. Meanwhile, Trump opted to head to a golf tournament instead of attending the dignified return of the four dead servicemen who were killed in Lithuania. Plus, 9/11 truther Laura Loomer is running the National Security Council and we're still bombing the Houthis. Adam Kinzinger joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes Video of Lithuanians paying homage to the four American soldiers who died in a training accident Tim's playlist

The market plunge is just pure Trump chaos, and perfectly matches his record as a businessman. From his numerous bankruptcies and many failures—including his airline, his casinos, his university, his water, and his steaks—he's been running one long con. And the supposedly smart people who should have known better put him back in power, somehow thinking he would never do something like destroy global trade. Meanwhile, in Michigan, where there have already been job losses directly caused by Trump's tariff war, State Senator Mallory McMorrow announced she's running for the U.S. Senate—saying she's had enough of the leadership and the bullshit in DC. Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway and Mallory McMorrow join Tim Miller. show notes  Tracy's Bloomberg podcast, "Odd Lots" Mallory McMorrow's Instagram Mallory's new book, “HATE WON’T WIN: Find Your Power and Leave This Place Better Than We Found It.” 

Musk was so high on his own supply that he thought he and his money were magic—but Wisconsin voters turned out in droves to prove to him just how toxic his brand and DOGE are. Meanwhile, the Dem base is looking highly engaged as they keep showing up for special elections in numbers Republicans used to deliver in off-cycle races. Plus, Cory Booker's epic filibuster, Mike Johnson gets owned by moms, and China will fill all the vacuums Trump is creating in science, foreign aid, and trade. Sam Stein joins Tim Miller.

The administration admits it mistakenly sent a Maryland father with protected status to the Salvadoran penal colony—but at the same time, it says the federal courts have no jurisdiction over him because he is now in a foreign country. If some of us have no due process, that opens the door to none of us having due process. Meanwhile, Trump's administration seems hellbent on destroying the U.S.-led world order, Marco Rubio is acting very un-American, and we actually do have long-standing protocols for how a president's national security team should discuss a military strike. Plus, Mother Jones reporters show the absurdity of ICE's assertions about migrant gang membership. Former National Security Adviser Susan Rice, along with Noah Lanard and Isabela Dias, join Tim Miller. show notes Atlantic piece on the Maryland father sent to El Salvador Tim's Bulwark Take on ICE's 'mistaken' deportation Mother Jones on the shoddy tattoo evidence being used to disappear migrants

If Joe Rogan is the voice in the wilderness on the disappearing of migrants to El Salvador, then the Democratic leadership really needs to rethink its cautiousness. Meanwhile, the Bluffer-in-Chief is musing about a third term and Elon seems to be skirting the law in Wisconsin over an election he claims will determine the fate of civilization. Plus, the tariffs threats are rattling the markets, Trump's gullibility with Putin is coming through loud and clear, and why does JD hate Europe so much?  Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller. show notes The Robert Gould Shaw and 54th Massachusetts Regiment Memorial on Boston Common Official trailer for the film, Glory Texas Democrat Veronica Escobar on the deportations to El Salvador Elon in a cheesehead *Secure your privacy with Surfshark! Go to surfshark.com/thebulwark for 4 extra months of Surfshark.