40. Gen. Chance Saltzman: Competitive Endurance, Proposing a 'Theory of Success' for the Space Domain

In this episode Peter Garretson talks with Christopher Mason, a Professor of Genomics, Physiology, Biophysics, and Neuroscience at Weill Cornell Medicine and Director of the WorldQuant Initiative for Quantitative Prediction, and principal investigator for the NASA Twins Study. The conversation explores the ideas in his book, The Next 500 Years: Engineering Life to Reach New Worlds. The episode opens with Chris' thought experiment for long-term thinking, and the realization that the span of life on Earth is finite and its implications. The discussion delves into key concepts from his book such as his "deontogenic ethics," the human purpose as shepherds of life, the duty to engineer, the 'metaspecies,' engineering astronauts, settlers, and their companion microbes, terraforming, and the nuts and bolts of his 500 year plan to engineer ourselves, the biospheres of planets in our solar system and settling new Earths, setting sail for second Suns. Mason shares insights from the NASA Twins Study, and highlights work in his lab such as creating radiation resistant cells by transplanting tardigrade DNA into human cells. The conversation covers planetary protection, longevity, synthetic biology, functional genomics, reproduction in space, AI & biological digital twins, and science fiction. Together, they explore what it means to codify such purpose in national policy, and how to encourage US leadership in the new space race in science and technology policy. Chris ends on a note of high optimism for the future of humanity.

In this episode Peter Garretson talks with Jim Keravala, co-founder and CEO of OffWorld, inc. The conversation opens with the truly grand scale of ambition in space, beginning with interstellar migration before working back to Cislunar development. This leads into an exploration of political and environmental pressures, highlighting the need to double or quadruple our energy inputs through Space Solar Power. Jim shares his past efforts with Shacketon energy to create an $18B sovereign wealth fund for developing Lunar infrastructure and building solar power Satellites. The conversation shifts to examining the genesis of OffWorld, its success in terrestrial mining, and plans for swarm mining of end-of-life mines. The dialogue emphasizes the criticality of Cislunar space, establishing how U.S. economic prosperity is absolutely tied to our Cislunar competence. This opens up a broader conversation about why Cislunar development is urgent today and how to catalyze it in alignment with the Oil & Gas industry. The focus then turns to Cislunar's importance for national security and the future roles of the Space Force. As the conversation progresses, attention shifts to the opportunity of building and leading the foundation of expansion into Cislunar space during this era of unprecedented technological advancement—comparable to the discovery of fire and the invention of the wheel. The discussion expands to cover starship, self-replication, synbio, AI, AI ethics, and the incredible opportunity facing the new administration. The episode concludes with a compelling scenario of what we're likely to see unfold if we make the right decisions.

In this episode Peter Garretson talks with Mike Snead and Jess Sponable about why America doesn't yet have true spaceplanes and their promise and importance.  They cover nuances of what counts as a spaceplane, what sorts of things a spaceplane can do, the major categories of spaceplanes (TSTO, SSTO, VTOL, HOTOL, VTHL, rocket/airbreathing, air collection, hot & cold structures).  The guests review the history of US efforts from X-20 DynaSoar, TAV (Boeing) to Cooper Canyon to X-30 NASP, Have Region, DC-X, X-33/Venture Star, XS-1/XSP and more). They explain that for decades the U.S. industrial base could have built rocket-powered spaceplanes and discuss the geo-strategic and political regions it has not. The conversation explores the reasons for failure, the sad demise of X-planes, and some of the positive trends in industry. They discuss policies that might advance spaceplanes as well as their military implications. Toward the end, Mike and Peter also discuss the interactions between spaceplanes, space solar power, and the implications of China's spaceplane, Lunar and Space Solar Power programs. The consider how a mature 'astroelectricity'and 'astrologistics' infrastructure would fundamentally change the game for the U.S. Space Force and military power.

In this episode, AFPC Senior Vice President, and host of the Disinformation Wars podcast, speaks with Col. Peter Garretson, AFPC Senior Fellow in Defense Studies and former chief futurist for the U.S. Air Force, regarding China’s recent strides forward in space internet, and what it might mean for the unfolding “great power competition” between Washington and Beijing.   MATERIALS REFERENCED IN THIS EPISODE: — Ilan Berman, “The Fight for Informational Freedom Is Moving to Space,” Newsweek, September 4, 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/fight-informational-freedom-moving-space-opinion-1948104 — Richard M. Harrison and Peter Garretson, The Next Space Race: A Blueprint for American Primacy (Praeger Security International, 2023), https://www.amazon.com/Next-Space-Race-Blueprint-International/dp/1440880808 — Peter Garretson and Richard M. Harrison, “Reacting to Major Space Events at or Below Geostationary Orbit - After Action Report 1,” AFPC Special Report, July 5, 2024, https://www.afpc.org/publications/special-reports/reacting-to-major-space-events-at-or-below-geostationary-obit-after-action-report-1.  — Peter Garretson and Richard M. Harrison, “Reacting to Major Space Events on the Moon and in Cislunar Space - After Action Report 2,” AFPC Special Report, September 24, 2024, https://www.afpc.org/uploads/documents/Workshop_2_-_After_Action_Report_-_9.16.24.pdf. 

In this episode Peter Garretson talks with Dr. Greg Autry, Associate Provost for Space Commercialization and Strategy at the University of Central Florida, and former member of the 2016 NASA Agency Review Team and White House Liaison to NASA in 2017.  They discuss a number of ideas in Dr. Autry's new book Red Moon RISING: How America Will Beat China on the Final Frontier. They touch on how Dr. Autry moved from being a software entrepreneur into the New Space movement, including his early work in China on human rights, the impact of his earlier book Death By China, and what are the stakes of Space Race 2.0. They also delve into Dr. Autry's recent testimony on the stakes of the in-space mineral supply chain, including relegating the U.S. to an economic backwater, and potentially existential threat to the US. They explore the big idea of Space Settlement, Millions of people living and working in space on new space stations, the surface Moon and Mars, and why we should populate Mars, and how China's decision to turn inward multiplied rather than solved their problems. They talk about the contribution of space toward our understanding of climate and the environment, and toward offering solutions, and Autry's contention that America can afford to have a future in space. They assess communism, authoritarianism, capitalism, billionaires, nuclear power, and the remarkable bipartisanship in space. They discuss how cooperation is boring and has resulted in very little comparative progress. They converse about NASA's tragic plans to trash the ISS, and alternatives for this tremendous piece of human heritage. They evaluate the progress of NASA's Artemis vs the tasking in the National Space Policy, and the historical reasons for its complexity and schedule delay, and concerns of a lack of urgency, and that the US may be losing in the race with China.  Bridging on Dr. Autry's recent review of the Republican Platform space strategy, Greg discusses what is a vision worthy of our nation and what must be done to move forward. They conclude by discussing ways for individuals to get in involved in the Space Movement, including the National Space Society (NSS), Mars Society, Moon Village Association, and the open & welcoming nature of the Space Movement and ways to seek the education to become a space leader, such as University of Arizona's Thunderbird Executive Master of Global Management: Space Leadership Business and Policy. More of Dr. Autry's thinking can be found in his regular Forbes Science Column and Foreign Policy, and New Space Articles.

In this episode Peter Garretson has a discussion with former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. They delve into the strategic importance of space to our economy and security and counter-space threats. They review how Bridenstine got into space via the Rocket Racing League, how his interests in promoting commercial space resulted in his introducing the Space Renaissance Act while in Congress. The two discuss the big ideas for Cislunar contained in his 2016 policy speech, This is Our Sputnik Moment. They cover how he moved ideas from the Google Lunar XPrize to create the NASA CLPS program. They address the creation of Artemis Program goals for a sustainable presence on the Moon and on the progress of Planetary Defense. They discuss the DIME (Diplomatic Informational Military Economic) theory of national power, and the roles that NASA, the commercial sector, and the Space Force play, including the creation of an economic and industrial base to win economic and strategic competition in the space domain. Additionally, they assess the naval-like role for the United States Space Force. They conclude talking about the informational and public diplomacy aspect of spacepower, how PRC initiatives in Lunar infrastructure, space nuclear power, and space solar power satellites and demos, and the need for the US to continue to reach for big audacious projects which impress the world.

In this episode Peter Garretson speaks with Simon “Pete” Worden (Brig Gen, USAF, Ret, PhD), Chairman of the Breakthrough Prize Foundation. They discuss the purpose of spacefaring, the importance of Cislunar, the Moon, Clementine, the Near-Earth and Main-Belt Asteroids, NASA's Artemis mission, Moon-to-Mars Objectives and Artemis Accords, DARPA (and it's NOM4D, DRACO, B-SURE and LunA-10 effort), "Bluewater Spacepower," movement & maneuver in deep space, the need to protect commerce, and the U.S. Space Force, 'War Prevention' vs Warfighting'. They explore dissuasion, deterrence, the recent Fractional Orbital Bombardment Test, SDI and Space-Based Missile defense. They delve into how Breakthrough is going after the big questions of is there life, is there intelligent life, and can we reach other star systems through Breakthrough Watch, Breakthrough Listen, Breakthrough Starshot (including its StarChips, Solar Sails and Gigawatt Lasers). They assess the importance of asteroids to science, as a resource, and as a threat, discussing his role in starting Luxembourg Space Agency's Space Resources program for Asteroid Mining, his long-standing role in planetary defense, what became DART. They close discussing Boyd's OODA Loop and philosophy of officership, and the attitude it takes to do innovation.

In this episode, Peter Garretson meets with General Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations (CSO) for the United States Space Force. They discuss the role of CSO within the broader space ecosystem, and the opportunities and threats that occupy his thoughts. They examine the changes in the space domain, and how to respond to a contested domain. They touch on 'theories of success' and 'theories of victory.' Gen Saltzman discusses "Competitive Endurance" and its tenets of: 1) avoiding operational surprise; 2) denying first-mover advantage; and 3) responsible counterspace campaigning. They go in-depth on counterspace campaigning and its relationship to deterrence, integrated campaigning, and implications for the security dilemma. They delve into how adversary space systems now have the capability to enable targeting of U.S. forces. Followed by a discussion on offense and defense, its meaning, how technology has shifted the balance in military history, and in the space domain. They converse about what the concept of 'denying first mover advantage' means and what it does not, and its relationship to deterrence and stability. They go over the USSF mission statement and just what it means to 'Protect the interests of the United States in Space" as enshrined in US Code Title X. They discuss requirement to access, control and exploit space his three lines of effort (LOEs): 1) Fielding Combat Ready Forces; 2) Amplifying the Guardian Spirit; and 3) Partnering to Win. Gen Saltzman ends with a message to junior Guardians and a powerful recruiting message to join the Space Force. Gen Saltzman's Bio About Space Force    THREAT & TRENDS NASIC Competing in Space DIA Challenges to Security in Space  Space Futures Workshop: The Future of Space 2060 Space Futures Workshop: Commercial Planning Assumptions   THEORY OF SUCCESS, COMPETITIVE ENDURANCE & TENANTS 2023 AFA Warfare Keynote "Guardians in the Fight" (TRANSCRIPT) 2023 AFA Warfare Keynote "Guardians in the Fight" (VIDEO) CSIS Theory of Success: A Conversation with General Saltzman   CSO C-Notes and Priorities: LOE #1 Field Combat-ready Forces (C-Note 1) LOE #2, Amplify the Guardian Spirit (C-Note 2) LOE #3 Partnering to Win (C-Note 5) All 3 LOE's together   SPACE FORCE DOCTRINE USSF STARCOM Doctrine Page & Digital Library (more up to date) Space Capstone Publication: Spacepower: Doctrine for Space Forces SDP 5.0 Planning (discusses competition continuum) SDP 3.0 Operations (discussed competition continuum) SDP 2.0 Intelligence SDP 4.0 Sustainment   USSF Recruiting / Joint USSF:  How to Join Space Force Space Force via USAF Academy Space Force ROTC Enlist in Space Force

In this episode Peter Garretson meets with Dr. Ezinne Uzo-Okoro of the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). They discuss the White House space policies in the context of the Administration Priorities, including climate, economy and jobs, restoring US global leadership, COVID and infrastructure, and the intention to lead by example. They delve into the broad context of the White House Space Priorities Framework and its emphasis on sustainability, norms and behaviors, earth observation for climate change. They examine the plethora of policy documents and the 'nuts and bolts' of what is involved in originating and coordinating such documents, including aligning with presidential intent, 'reading the room,' bringing together and educating stakeholders, and soliciting feedback including from industry and academia, making a case for guidance, always with the intent to maintain US preeminence at least 10-20 years down the road. They address how such documents are used by federal agencies, allies, and industry, and the relationship of OSTP to the National Space Council (NSpC), National Security Council (NSC), and Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and sometimes the National Economic Council (NEC) and Climate office...as well as the need for patience and grace throughout the 6-12 month coordination process. They explore the historic nature of the National Cislunar Science and Technology Strategy and the deliberate choice of the language of 'settlement' in the new National Low Earth Orbit Research and Development Strategy, and the consistent industry-friendly themes across documents of new products and scalable infrastructure, and economic growth. They touch on In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing National Strategy and National In-Space Servicing Assembly, and Manufacturing Implementation Plan, as well as the National Strategy for Advanced Manufacturing and Interagency Roadmap to Support Space-Related STEM Education and Workforce. They also cover the James Webb Telescope and exciting DART mission, the recently updated National Preparedness Strategy & Action Plan for Near-Earth Object Hazards and Planetary Defense—"what's cooler than planetary defense." Along the way they discuss Space-Based Solar Power, Exoplanets, Settlement, Space Weather, regulating novel space activities. They review Ezinne's own career and journey, and her reasons for optimism and philosophy of hard work. They conclude talking about how easy it is to become involved in space, because it is a small community where anyone can play, and secrets of success such as: if you want to go far, go together; that success comes from putting one foot in front of the other; the utility of patience and grace, and that there is plenty of work, so grab an oar!    

In this episode Peter Garretson talks with science fiction author Daniel Suarez about his latest novel Critical Mass, which depicts humanity’s transition from a climate-imperiled, Earthbound civilization to one that utilizes the resources and energy from deep space to secure a promising, sustainable future. They discuss what it means to be a spacefaring civilization, what is the value proposition for developing Cislunar, the new Space Race, what will be the determinants of spacepower both soft & hard, and what ought to be our national priorities. Daniel is clear that, “They [China] have basically declared that they want to have a space race with us. I say we take them up on it” and that “We need to get busy, and we really need to be focused on outcomes,” that “We Need an Apollo Level of Urgency,” and “And if that space race can inspire us to get busy and get moving well, then good. Then it and it's going to have a good catalyzing effect.” They analyze what the Space Force should assume about Cislunar, space resources, humans in space, and requirements for guardians in space. They delve into what the new capabilities mean for competitive endurance and a theory of success, and the opportunities afforded by space mobility and logistics. They explore the concept of space infrastructure, and the criticality of on-orbit mass for spacepower advantage. They assess how the scenario in his latest book ought to give the USSF pause, “And if this scenario gives them [USSF] nightmares…then, hopefully, that will urge some action.”  They touch on cryptocurrency in space, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and the space commodities exchange. They cover Asteroid Mining, Solar Power Satellites to Mass Drivers, to Lunar Cyclers, Spin-Gravity Space Stations—and enabling U.S. policy. They discuss the utility of Science Fiction as ‘cost-effective prototyping the future’, the utility of narrative, and the constraint that ‘you can’t build something until you can imagine it.’ They close by examining the future roles and missions for the Space Force in a developing Cislunar economy in the context of the technology in his novels DeltaV and Critical Mass.