249. World’s largest VPP - Oct26

The global market for Virtual Power Plants is assessed around 100GW (+/- 20GW). It is a 7bnUSD expected to grow at a CAGR above 20% in the next 5 years to reach 40bnUSD within a decade.   VPP are a digitally coordinated flexible network of distributed resources: cheaper than central stations. They manage behind the meter assets like Solar, batteries, HVAC, EV…  VPP is a term invented 30 years ago by US economist and finance scholar Dr Shimon Awerbuch, who died 20 years ago in a light plane crash over the Alps. Only aged 51, he leaves a great legacy. His foundational work in 1996 was called “The Virtual Utility” where he demonstrated that Electricity generation must be treated like a financial portfolio. He proved that Renewables (even if they were very expensive at the time) were a powerful hedge against fossil fuel volatility.  In our series about how digital is transforming the how we track, trade, and optimise energy, Gerard and Laurent have invited Marc Rühs, CEO Next Kraftwerke, the world largest VPP with 15GW Capacity. Connecting more than 14,000 decentralised electricity producers, consumers, and storage facilities, the company contributes to grid stability and optimizes electricity production and consumption based on price signals. It trades its electricity on various European exchanges via its own 24/7 electricity trading platform. Next Kraftwerke has been part of the Shell Group since 2021.We have a deep conversation about how VPP work, their impact on flexibility, and the fact that they used to be ignored or discarded by incumbents. But that is changing with the arrival of AI providing better systems and increased demand.  Along the way, we pop some balloons, such as V2G or Heating management, which work great in theory but are non-significant from a volume point of view. Maybe they will in the next decade.   As Shell is reducing its footprint in Clean Energy transition assets, it is reinforcing its position in the VPP market, as Next Kraftwerke is fully integrated into Shell trading organisation.  Marc demonstrates that the future of energy lies in intelligently connecting renewable generation, storage, demand-side flexibility, and trading capabilities to create a more resilient and sustainable energy system.  

Joseph J. Romm (1960–2026) was an MIT-trained physicist who became one of the most prominent voices in the U.S. climate movement after serving as Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy in the 1990s.  He founded the Climate Progress blog, authored ten books—including The Hype About Hydrogen and Hell and High Water—and was named a Time “Hero of the Environment” and one of Rolling Stone’s “100 People Who Are Changing America” in 2009.  Later, as a Senior Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media, Romm continued to challenge what he regarded as dead-end technologies and costly distractions, including hydrogen, carbon offsets, and carbon capture.   Romm died unexpectedly at the age of 66 on September 14, 2026, in Washington, D.C.  Michael Barnard and Joe shared a long history of friendship and collaboration, strengthened by a memorable conversation 18 months ago following the release of the second edition of Joe’s seminal book, The Hype About Hydrogen.  That conversation between Joe and Michael was a fascinating and uniquely candid dialogue about the real solutions to climate change—and about technologies they believed risked diverting attention and investment from more effective pathways, including hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), direct air carbon capture (DAC), and some proposed approaches to green steel.Joe had an extraordinary influence on the climate and energy-transition debate over the past three decades. His rigorous analysis, willingness to challenge conventional wisdom, and ability to communicate complex energy issues shaped the way many of us think about the transition to a clean-energy economy.  He will be deeply missed. He will not be forgotten.  

In our series: How AI is revolutionising Energy, Laurent and Gerard dive deep into the intricate corner of Energy Management system for large industrial clusters.  You would believe that legacy providers such as Siemens, Schneider Electric or Hitachi would provide such solutions. They are not. Indeed, they provide legacy Scada systems which are hardware linked and bottom up. There is no glue to optimise them as a group and deliver access to Energy markets.  Two young Belgian engineers have decided to address this blind spot and come up with a new generation of software: AI powered EMS. That is what Companion Energy has achieved. We bring in its CEO Thomas Vyncke.  Most of the European energy conversation still focuses on front-of-the-meter flexibility: batteries, renewables and other assets participating in wholesale and balancing markets. Thomas’ thesis is that an equally important — and much less developed — opportunity sits behind the meter, inside large industrial and commercial companies.  The problem is complexity. Every enterprise site is different: different tariffs, contracts, generation assets, batteries, EV fleets, boilers, industrial processes, grid constraints and operating requirements. The opportunity therefore isn't simply to buy cheaper electricity or optimise one battery. It is to continuously optimise the entire energy system of the site against its operational and financial reality.  That is what Vyncke and co-founder Jonas Verstraeten are building with Companion.energy, founded in 2022. The platform provides transparency on energy costs and automates optimisation across complex behind-the-meter environments.  The company says it currently optimises more than €500m of energy spend and 350+ MW of assets across Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Romania, working with companies including Proximus, TotalEnergies and Port of Antwerp-Bruges. It recently raised a €7.8m seed round to support international expansion.  And it is just the beginning…   With the energy industry's largest proprietary dataset, world-class experts and decision-grade models, all powered by Synoptic AI, Wood Mackenzie delivers Intelligence Connected across the energy and natural resources landscape.

There is simply too much greenwashing happening. Environmental reporting has become a meaningless bureaucracy feeding a fictional reality through glossy reports that nobody reads anymore.  But things are changing; the impact of climate change (heatwaves, floods) is hitting back at governments trying to ignore it. Some BigTech, historically in favour of renewable energy are now busy building the biggest gas plants in the world for their datacenters, while pretending still to be on track for their “net zero” commitments.  They maintain the fiction through carbon accounting tricks, maximisation of loopholes and heavy PR campaigns run by the American Petroleum Institute and McKinsey.  Fortunately, there are a lot of companies which start to see the direction of travel: a more granular way of accounting for Energy and Emissions. Not by the year, where summer solar can be accounted for winter consumption, but by the month and soon by the hour.   Hourly matching is new, tough, but far from unsurmountable. That is what new companies such as Renewabl are enabling: by cutting though the bureaucracy and Excel Sheets, and helping the forward thinkers to present, report and optimise their energy and emissions profile.  Laurent and Gerard have the privilege of receiving Carolyn Addy, Head of Commercial at Renewabl, to talk about the new trends, the innovations, and how progressively, we are entering a more transparent and efficient world.  We talk about immediate non-regret solutions and the impact of AI in the process. We also dive into how hourly PPAs are progressively making their way into the market, and whatever perceived additional work they require, in fact they provide better hedges against volatile energy costs.

Where Are BESS Making Money? Gerard and Laurent had the pleasure of welcoming Ed Porter Director Europe at Modo Energy for an insightful discussion on battery profitability and the evolving economics of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).  Modo Energy is a fast-growing data analytics and market intelligence platform helping energy professionals benchmark asset performance, forecast revenues and evaluate investments in renewable energy and grid-scale battery storage.  Ed outlines three stages in the development of a battery market:Stage 1 – Pre-saturation: Batteries can achieve attractive payback periods, sometimes as short as three years, primarily through ancillary services.Stage 2 – Wholesale market competition: As ancillary service revenues become more competitive, batteries increasingly rely on wholesale market opportunities, as seen in Australia, Texas and Great Britain.Stage 3 – Sophisticated grid services: Once wholesale markets become saturated, batteries move towards more advanced and specialised grid services (voltage, inertia...).  The technology is evolving rapidly, as is the deployment of new battery capacity. This makes future revenues increasingly difficult to predict, particularly because of the cannibalisation effect: as more batteries enter a market, they compete for the same revenue opportunities and can progressively reduce market spreads.  From Australia to PJM, ERCOT and CAISO, and across Great Britain, Spain and Germany, we explore the fundamentals driving battery profitability in different markets.   With CAPEX around $500,000/MW, a decent return might be in the region of $70,000–80,000/MW. Yet the picture varies dramatically by market. Poland can deliver around $300,000/MW, while ERCOT and Australia's NEM are currently below $30,000/MW.  These differences highlight why investors need to look beyond headline revenues and consider market structure, competition, saturation, technology and future revenue cannibalisation.  We also discuss Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) and explore the deeper market and technological levers that can make batteries a profitable long-term investment.   A compelling conversation on where BESS is making money today—and, perhaps more importantly, where the opportunities may lie tomorrow. With the energy industry's largest proprietary dataset, world-class experts and decision-grade models, all powered by Synoptic AI, Wood Mackenzie delivers Intelligence Connected across the energy and natural resources landscape.

There is no shortage of discussion about the role of AI in the energy transition. Yet while many talk about the future of intelligent grids, only a handful of industry leaders are delivering solutions at scale.  One of them is Alberto Méndez Rebollo—an executive, investor, and entrepreneur dedicated to accelerating the energy transition. Throughout his career, Alberto has held senior leadership positions at Siemens Gamesa, Vattenfall, XCharge, and other organizations, overseeing multi-million-euro initiatives across renewable energy, power grids, and electric mobility.  Today, as Co-Founder and CEO of Plexigrid, he is leading the development of next-generation technology designed to prepare electricity networks for a rapidly changing energy landscape. Plexigrid, a deep-tech company headquartered in Sweden and Spain, develops intelligent software that helps utilities optimize and digitize electricity distribution networks. At the core of its platform is a real-time digital twin of the distribution grid, enabling operators to monitor capacity, detect anomalies, and make better operational decisions.  The company's AI-powered technology automatically coordinates energy consumption and manages flexible assets such as EV chargers, shifting demand away from peak periods. This allows utilities to alleviate congestion, increase grid resilience, and unlock additional network capacity—without the need for costly and time-consuming infrastructure upgrades.  The market response has been remarkable. Operating on a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, Plexigrid has expanded its commercial pipeline from €8 million to more than €150 million in just four years, consistently winning competitive tenders against some of the industry's most established players.   Its growing client base includes leading utilities and energy innovators, with notable partnerships such as EDP and Piclo focused on advancing real-time grid orchestration. The company has also raised approximately €15 million across multiple funding rounds, providing a strong foundation for continued growth and innovation.  Beyond the technology, however, this is a story about transformation at warp speed. It is about how critical infrastructure can evolve—not only technically, but culturally—to embrace new technologies and operating models. As electricity networks become increasingly decentralized, digital, and dynamic, organizations like Plexigrid are demonstrating how AI can move from a promising concept to a practical tool that helps utilities adapt, modernize, and thrive in the energy transition.  “Today’s show is supported by the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt. The BMW Foundation unites leaders across sectors to develop solutions that foster an innovative economy and a future-proof society. A key focus is "Energy Transition & Climate Change," where the Foundation drives "International collaboration to accelerate the energy transition." With rising energy demands from AI and data centres, new partnerships, effective collaboration, and the exchange of science-based solutions and strategies are essential.”

Recorded at the SolarPower Summit in Brussels this conversation between Laurent Segalen and Jonathan Gifford examines why batteries have become one of the fastest growing and most strategically important technologies shaping the global energy transition. Jonathan Gifford is the co-founder of Climate Copy and a wonderful storyteller.  Laurent unpacks how rapid battery innovation is transforming electric mobility, renewable energy markets, charging infrastructure, and the future operation of electricity grids.  It has been only nine years since Hornsdale (Tesla – South Australia) 100MW-130MWh made of EV batteries cracked the code. Six months later in China the Jiangsu Zhenjiang first 100MW LFP battery was installed. In Europe and the US, the first large LFP batteries were installed in 2021-2022. Now, LFP has a 95% market share in BESS around the world. For EVs, it is 55% LFP – 45% NMC (80% in China).  By the end of 2026, we will reach 500GW globally and great forecasters like Jan Rosenow expect 1,000GW by 2030. We see longer duration and the advent of sodium batteries.  Laurent outlines why electrification is entering a new phase of acceleration. He highlights how falling battery costs, rapid improvements in electric vehicle technology, and the widening economic gap between electricity and fossil fuels are reshaping expectations across the transport sector. This shift is not limited to passenger cars; it increasingly extends to commercial fleets and heavy-duty trucking, where electric trucks are becoming more competitive thanks to lower operating costs, reduced maintenance needs, and improving charging infrastructure.  He also discusses the growing importance of stationary battery storage in enabling high-power EV charging, increasing grid flexibility, and supporting higher penetration of renewable energy.  Finally, he explained why Hydrogen will never work in long haul transportation. Simply too expensive.    

Michael Barnard welcomes Cornelis Plet, CTO of Grid Systems Integration at GE Vernova, about the technologies reshaping modern power systems and the practical realities of building an electrified future.  High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, once a specialist solution for narrow use cases, is now becoming a standard building block of the global grid. Increasingly standardised designs are enabling large-scale transfer of renewable power over long distances, yet the industry is still grappling with how to align control systems and operational standards across different vendors and regions.  A central theme of the conversation is the rise of grid-forming inverters. As traditional synchronous generation retires and is replaced by wind, solar, and batteries, the grid is shifting from mechanical inertia to power electronics. While technical progress is rapid and new grid codes are emerging, true interoperability between systems remains a work in progress, with different implementations still complicating integration at scale.  The discussion also touches on geopolitics and market dynamics. Investment patterns are evolving, regulatory environments are uneven across regions, and supply chains are adjusting after a period of rapid expansion. Yet across all of this, one constraint stands out more than any other: people. The shortage of experienced power engineers, particularly in system design, protection, and control, is becoming the defining bottleneck of the transition.  Ultimately, the episode is not only about HVDC or inverters, but about the broader system that surrounds them—standards, institutions, skills, and the accumulated expertise required to keep a highly complex, rapidly changing grid stable. It is a reminder that the energy transition is as much a human and organisational challenge as it is a technological one.  

In March 2026, Laurent was invited by Jan Rosenow at Oriel College, Oxford, for a public debate on the energy transition. Held in the College's historic library, the discussion brought together contrasting perspectives on one of today's defining challenges. Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, is renowned for his work on energy efficiency, electrification, and the transition to net-zero energy systems.Laurent opened by introducing the "Aristotelian Triangle" of the energy debate—Ethos, Logos, and Pathos—arguing that values, evidence, and emotion all shape how people interpret energy issues. Responding to Jan's distinction between energy addition and energy transition, Laurent made two key points.First, history shows that energy forecasts have repeatedly underestimated transformative innovations, from shale gas and LEDs to solar, electric vehicles, batteries, and AI-driven data centres. His conclusion: humility is essential when predicting structural change.Second, Laurent presented his "Diocletian Tetrarchy of Energy," pairing Vaclav Smil with Clayton Christensen to represent continuity versus disruption, alongside Daniel Yergin and Michael Liebreich to illustrate the roles of markets, geopolitics, and industrial transformation. He described himself as roughly 70/30 in favour of technological disruption while acknowledging the inertia of existing energy systems.The discussion also examined the cost of ideology, arguing that opposition to technologies such as offshore wind or nuclear power can shape investment, electricity prices, and energy affordability. It concluded by exploring industrial policy, energy security, and how nations should balance resilience, competitiveness, and comparative advantage in a changing geopolitical landscape.Although the formal debate lasted just over an hour, the conversation continued long afterwards. This episode captures part of those fascinating exchanges.  

During Intersolar (The Smart E), Gerard sat down with Dr Chuan Lu, CEO Astronergy and Director of Chint Group to discuss, from the inside the Chinese Solar revolution. 2026 was Dr Lu and Chint 15th participation to that massive European Exhibit that epitomise the growth of renewables. 18 halls the size of a football fields and more than 100,000 visitors.  CHINT is a vertically integrated Chinese energy conglomerate whose solar business is profitable, mid-growth, and margin-focused rather than driven by hyper-scale manufacturing. Its portfolio includes Astronergy (modules), CPS (inverters), CHINT Solar (EPC/IPP), and CHINT ANNENG (residential PV), generating approximately $650–700 million in operating profit and implying a valuation of $12–16 billion. Annual growth of 15–20% trails peers but reflects CHINT's focus on profitability, diversification, and disciplined capital allocation. The result is a stable, globally active, Tier 1-certified solar group that operates more like an integrated industrial compounder than a scale-at-all-costs PV manufacturer.  The modern Chinese solar industry began to take shape around 2006 as a predominantly export-oriented manufacturing sector, driven by demand from Europe and other international markets. As a privately held enterprise, CHINT has operated within a unique ecosystem where entrepreneurial initiative has been complemented by government policy support. A pivotal moment came in 2012 with the introduction of China's Feed-in Tariff (FIT) programme, which stimulated domestic demand and transformed China into the world's largest solar market, creating significant opportunities for companies such as CHINT to expand beyond export manufacturing.  CHINT's development has also been shaped by China's regional economic and cultural differences. Originating in the entrepreneurial, resource-poor southeast of the country, the company embodies a private-sector culture that contrasts sharply with the coal-dependent, state-controlled industrial base of northeast China.  Looking ahead, management recognises the challenges posed by overbuilding and excess manufacturing capacity in the utility-scale solar market. In response, CHINT has diversified aggressively into distributed generation through its residential rooftop solar business, CHINT ANNENG, which has installed more than 60 GW of capacity across over 1.2 million rooftops throughout China, positioning the company to benefit from a broader and more resilient mix of solar market opportunities.  A great thanks to Jonathan Gifford of Climate Copy for organising the recording.