US Market Open: US-Iran mediation efforts to continue, though US sources suggest the chance of a deal is limited; USD gains

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today.Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports.US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.The RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected, and noted it will raise the cash rate further if needed; Press conference at 06:30 BST.Crude futures edged higher overnight; APAC stocks were mostly subdued; European equity futures indicate a flat/positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Inflation (Sep) & Retail Sales (Aug), EZ Economic Sentiment (Sep), US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Supply from the UK & Italy. Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately. He expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal.Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA; Brent +3.3%.European bourses were initially firmer but now off best levels; NQ -1% lags on elevated yields and tech underperformance.DXY is steady; JPY strengthens on further jawboning from officials.Yields reside at multi-decade highs as energy benchmarks continue to rise; US 10yr holds at 5.23%.Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin, Bowman, Cook and UK Chancellor HealeyRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately.US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal.Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.Crude futures were lifted at the open; 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve, DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields.APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Elderson & Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin. Supply from the Eurozone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal; Brent -1.6%.Chinese President Xi said China and the US reached a common understanding on many issues.European bourses gain as Iran offers hope of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; US equity futures follow suit, NQ +0.6%.DXY is slightly lower, whilst the JPY gains after Trump voiced concerns about a weak JPY to PM Takaichi.Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Schmid, ECB's Vujcic. Credit ratings, including Moody's on the EU & Italy, and Scope Ratings on the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal.Chinese President Xi urged the US and Iran to return to resolving issues through negotiation as soon as possible, according to Xinhua.Chinese President Xi said China and the US reached a common understanding on many issues.Crude futures pulled back overnight after the prior day's advances, with the reversal seen following reports that the US and Iran discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the inconclusive handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct), US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed's Williams, Hammack & Schmid, ECB's Vujcic, BoE Governor Bailey. Credit ratings, including Moody's on the EU & Italy, and Scope Ratings on the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Major General Safavi said the scope of the war may expand to the Indian Ocean and other regions, if the US starts a new war.US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a two-month extension to the trade truce with China, extending to January 10th.A flurry of Central Bank announcements; SNB and Riksbank hold while the Norges Bank hiked by 25bps to 4.50%.Global equities are under pressure amid the hawkish comments by Iranian officials, which has lifted the energy complex (Brent +2.1%).DXY makes fresh WTD highs as US yields remain at elevated levels (US 10yr yield 5.15%).Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims, Chinese President Xi's state visit to the US, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speakers include Fed's Barkin, Hammack & Paulson, BoE's Breeden & Lombardelli. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10th, while he doesn't know if a bigger trade deal can be done with China and could just roll the current deal forward.US reportedly dismissed Iran's Hormuz offer during UN talks, saying Tehran does not control the Strait, the Times of Israel reported.White House official denied Politico reports that the Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban exports of diesel for 90 days.Crude futures slightly pulled back overnight, 10yr UST futures lingered near the prior day's trough, and DXY paused overnight.APAC stocks were mostly pressured; Nikkei outperformed on return from holiday, and European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Initial Jobless Claims, Chinese President Xi's state visit to the US. Policy announcements from the Riksbank, SNB, Norges Bank, and Banxico. Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Lane, Fed's Williams, Barkin, Hammack & Paulson, BoE's Dhingra, Breeden & Lombardelli, SNB's Schlegel, Riksbank's Thedeen, Norges Bank's Bache. Supply from Italy & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Envoy Witkoff said mediators will continue their work, and he hopes talks will be constructive and promising.However, US sources told Al Hadath that the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain.US equity futures give back earlier gains as focus turns to the Trump-Xi meeting.DXY bids higher despite lower energy prices; EUR little moved following broadly stronger PMI metrics.Fixed income benchmarks trade rangebound, as energy lacks a clear direction (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (Sep), SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, Iranian President Pezeshkian address. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he thinks a settlement will be reached with Iran, and noted that some US-Iran communication has taken place even today and that the relationship with Iran is developing.US President Trump said envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Iran mediators and that there were lots of good thoughts. Trump later commented that he thinks Iran will do something good.Trump also warned that they may have to blow up Pickaxe Mountain and that they will attack if they see activity. He reiterated that he thinks the Iran war could end after the Midterms, maybe before.Crude futures were subdued overnight after declining yesterday amid hopes for diplomacy following US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the similar handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P PMIs Flash (Sep) and the SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include the Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, and Iranian President’s address. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from Germany and the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude benchmarks have reversed earlier gains after Kyodo reported, citing an Iranian official, that Iran has suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stops military operations related to Hormuz.Alongside the Kyodo report were constructive comments by the IRGC, stating that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate.Brent has returned below USD 94/bbl on the above headlines.A constructive risk tone followed, with equity futures and fixed income rising while the USD weakened.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement. UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. Comments from ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson & Barkin. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk