US Market Open: Crude edges higher, equities slip following Axios report detailing plans to pressure Iran to reopen Hormuz

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is said to have secretly informed US Envoy Witkoff of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s agreement to negotiate, Al Arabiya reports citing Israeli press citing sources.European equities subdued while PUIG SM surges on EL merger; US equity futures pull back from Monday's highs.DXY finds its footing following recent losses, Antipodeans lag, EUR digests PMIs which indicate slowing growth.Fixed income mixed ahead of a busy speaker slate. Firmer trade across oil as markets digest conflicting reports while attacks continue.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Mar), ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Cipollone, Lane & Nagel, BoE's Pill, SNB's Schlegel & Tschudin, Fed's Barr. Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reiterated that the US and Iran had preliminary talks over the past few days, and that they had very good discussions with Iran.Iran denied talks with the US and called it fake news, but said messages had been conveyed in recent days through several friendly countries.Washington set April 9th as the date to end the war on Iran, according to an Israeli official cited by Yedioth Ahronoth.US officials said the Strait of Hormuz is dotted with about a dozen Iranian mines, although an IRGC spokesperson said there is no need to mine the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian armed forces have full control.A partial rebound in oil was spurred by a report that some gas-related facilities were hit amid US-Israeli strikes on Isfahan.APAC stocks took their cues from the positive performance on Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6%.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Lane & Nagel, BoE's Pill, SNB's Schlegel, Fed's Barr. Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.Crude buoyed amid US-Iran threat exchange, Brent trading above USD 100/bbl. European equities fall further into correction territory; US equity futures weak with ES holding at 6,500.DXY buoyed by geopolitics, AUD hit as metals prices sink.Fixed income falters as energy climbs and pricing turns ever more hawkish, also weighing on metals prices. Looking ahead, highlights include EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Mar), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, Australian Flash PMIs (Mar), Japanese CPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Lane and Fed's Miran. Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.US President Trump posted earlier on Saturday that he is considering "winding down" the Iran war because the US was "getting very close" to meeting its military objectives.APAC stocks were pressured after the US and Iran exchanged threats over the weekend, with US President Trump announcing a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will obliterate Iranian power plants, while Iran responded with its own threats.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 2.0% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Wage Tracker (Q1), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Mar), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, Australian Flash PMIs (Mar), Japanese CPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lane. Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing sources.Crude edges higher amid the US plans to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European equities give back earlier gains following the Axios report; SMCI nose-dives pre-market amid a probe.DXY trims some of Thursday's losses as crude futures continue grinding higher—G10s are broadly lower against the USD. Fixed income under pressure as energy drives yields higher; Gilts underperform as markets fully price 3 rate hikes by the BoE.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Jan), PPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Nagel, Fed's Bowman and Waller. Credit Rating Update with Scope Ratings/Morningstar DBRS on France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US Pentagon is considering sending more troops to the Middle East, according to Politico sources who stated the size and scope of additional deployments are still evolving.Saudi officials see the base case for oil to rise to USD 180/bbl if the disruptions persist until late April, according to WSJ.APAC stocks were mostly subdued but with downside limited as the region reacted to the recent oil swings, deluge of central bank meetings and mixed geopolitical headlines, while conditions were thinned with the absence of Japanese participants due to the Vernal Equinox holiday.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7%, after the cash market closed with losses of 2.1% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI (Feb), UK PSNB (Feb), Canadian Retail Sales (Jan), PPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Nagel. Credit Rating Update with Scope Ratings/Morningstar DBRS on France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's armed forces said Iran's retaliation against attacks on its energy infrastructure is not yet complete, SNN reported; any repeat of such attacks will lead to a far stronger retaliation against the enemy, enemy infrastructure and that of their allies.US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars; added that the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.FX mixed amid the central bank bonanza; SNB, Riksbank and BoJ all left rates unchanged, as expected, while the BoE and ECB await. Crude surges as attacks in the Persian Gulf threaten long-term damage to major energy facilities.European equities suffer as Energy continues to surge; US equity futures follow suit, Micron slips after increasing capex plans.Fixed income weighed on energy upside and hawkish Chair Powell.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), BoE & ECB Policy Announcements. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars.US President Trump said the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.The Fed left rates on hold as expected in an 11-1 vote split, while dot plots were largely unchanged, with little reaction seen.Fed Chair Powell noted how the Fed will not look through energy-induced inflation lightly and stated that rate hikes in the future were discussed, but caveated that it is not the base case for the vast majority.BoJ kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, with the decision made by an 8-1 vote as Takata dissented and voted for a 25bps hike.APAC stocks declined as the region took its cue from the losses stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs/Average Earnings (Jan), US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), Riksbank, SNB, BoE & ECB, Policy Announcements. Speakers include BoJ's Ueda, SNB's Schlegel, Riksbank's Thedeen & ECB's Lagarde. Supply from Spain, France & US. Earnings from FedEx & Alibaba.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Israel attempted to assassinate Iran's Intelligence Minister Khatib overnight, Jerusalem Post reported, citing an Israeli official, but is still awaiting the results of the target.  Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas. Iran fired retaliatory missiles towards Tel Aviv for the killing of Larijani.European equities gain, Banks benefiting from a delay in capital requirements; US equity futures follow peers.Mostly flat FX trade heading into the FOMC; CHF narrowly lags ahead of tomorrow’s SNB.Crude continues to dictate macro sentiment; Gold rotates around USD 5,000/oz.Fixed income firmer amid energy downside ahead of key central bank announcements.Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Feb), New Zealand GDP (Q4), BoC, Fed & BCB Policy Announcements. Speakers include BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Fed Chair Powell & NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang. Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they had a big day on Tuesday, knocking out targets, and said it will be a couple of weeks regarding Iran, not much longer, and that they are way ahead of schedule.Iran confirmed that its security chief Larijani was killed, according to Iranian media.Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas, he understands neighbours' concerns and holds the US responsible for the conflict.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall Street and as oil prices retreated, while markets now await a flurry of upcoming central bank policy decisions, including from the FOMC later today.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI Final (Feb), US PPI (Feb), New Zealand GDP (Q4), BoC, Fed & BCB Policy Announcements. Speakers include BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Fed Chair Powell & NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Micron & HelloFresh.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk