EU Market Open: Geopolitics in focus as Gulf war sparked over the weekend; Global risk hit

US President Trump said the US continues to carry out large-scale combat operations in Iran, while he added that Iran could have missiles capable of reaching America soon and had refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.US and China trade negotiators are to meet mid-March prior to the Trump-Xi summit, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expected to convene in Paris at the end of next week to discuss bilateral matters.European bourses remain under pressure, Utilities hit further as QatarEnergy halts production; US equity futures reverse Monday's gains.DXY continues its war-related ascent, CHF underperforms, GBP lags into the Spring Statement.Fixed income falters as energy soars, causing heightened inflation risks.Crude prices continue to climb as the Iranian war enters day four; Precious metals slip. Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP (Mar), New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Australian Composite PMI Final (Feb). Speakers include Fed’s Williams & Kashkari, UK Spring Statement. Earnings from CrowdStrike, Best Buy, Target, AutoZone, Bayer, Adidas, & Continental.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the US continues to carry out large-scale combat operations in Iran, while he added that Iran could have missiles capable of reaching America soon and had refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.The US is said to be preparing for a 'pickup' in attacks in Iran during the next 24 hours, according to a senior unnamed official cited by CNN.US and China trade negotiators are to meet mid-March prior to the Trump-Xi summit, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expected to convene in Paris at the end of next week to discuss bilateral matters.APAC stocks were pressured with risk appetite weighed down by geopolitics as the Iranian conflict entered a fourth day, and with US President Trump warning of larger strikes to come.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.0% after the cash market closed with losses of 2.5% on Monday.Looking highlights include EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Australian Composite PMI Final (Feb). Speakers include Fed’s Williams & Kashkari, UK Spring Statement. Supply from the Netherlands & Germany, Earnings from CrowdStrike, Best Buy, Target, AutoZone, Bayer, Adidas, & Continental.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February; Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Global equities hit on risk tone, energy and defence names benefited, while airlines were significantly affected.Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice; IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.DXY surging amid geopolitics; G10s pressured across the board. USTs initially gapped higher, before waning as traders assess the inflationary impacts of the US/Israel-Iran war.Crude surges on weekend geopolitics but capped by potential global economic impact; Precious metals see haven appeal.Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Taylor & Ramsden, BoC’s Kozicki & Macklem, Earnings from Riot Platforms, Norwegian Cruise Line & ASM International.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February; Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice; IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.US President Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks; US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT.Crude futures surged at the reopen but retreated from best levels, spot gold rallied on a haven bid but then mildly pulled back. APAC stocks were mostly pressured, while European equity futures indicate a drop at the cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.5%.Russia is said to consider a halt in peace talks unless Ukraine cedes land. Talks planned for the week ahead will be decisive on whether or not the sides can agree on terms to end the war.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jan), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Taylor & Ramsden, BoC’s Kozicki & Macklem, Earnings from Riot Platforms, Norwegian Cruise Line & ASM International.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

PBoC announced it will cut the FX Risk Reserve Ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2nd to promote FX market development and support corporate exchange rate risk management.European equities firmer, Telecoms lead following potential M&A; US equity futures lower in the continuation of Thursday's tech-led selloff.DXY is flat; G10s broadly firmer, ex-EUR and GBP. USTs mildly firmer, Bunds choppy after mixed regional inflation prints.Crude gains and awaits the next chapter of the US-Iran saga and the OPEC+ meeting; Metals shine ahead of US PPI.Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Feb), Canadian GDP (Jan), US PPI (Jan), Comments from BoE's Pill.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately higher heading into month-end but with price action choppy following the weak handover from the US, where sentiment was clouded by tech weakness, while participants also digested the recent US-Iran talks in Geneva - which ended in no deal.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they entered serious talks about sanctions relief and the nuclear issue, while he added it was one of the most serious talks they have had with the US, and technical talks will start in Vienna from Monday.Ukrainian President Zelensky said the next trilateral talks will likely occur in the UAE in early March.PBoC announced it will cut the FX Risk Reserve Ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2nd to promote FX market development and support corporate exchange rate risk management.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Jan), French/Spanish/German CPI (Feb), German Unemployment Rate (Feb), Canadian GDP (Jan), US PPI (Jan), Comments from BoE's Pill, Earnings from Holcim & BASF.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

At the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Omani Foreign Minister says Iran and the US have welcomed proposals and talks are still currently ongoing. Further, "Iranian negotiating delegation meets IAEA director at the headquarters of the negotiations in Geneva", via Al Jazeera.European equities mixed; US equity futures unable to gain following NVIDIA earnings (+0.8% pre-market.)DXY posting modest gains, JPY outperforms on hawkish rhetoric, Cable softer ahead of Gorton and Denton by-election.Global fixed benchmarks are flat awaiting data, supply and Fed speak.Crude benchmarks fall following positive rhetoric from Omani FM, potentially easing tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include Fed's Bowman, Miran & Goolsbee. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell & Warner Bros Discovery.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks are mostly positive as the majority of the region took its cue from gains on Wall Street, where tech led the advances, and NVIDIA posted stronger-than-expected earnings.US equity futures initially saw support following NVIDIA's earnings results, as the world's most valuable company beat on top and bottom lines, although gains were pared as NVIDIA ultimately returned to flat territory after hours.BoJ's Governor Ueda said there is no change from January to the BoJ’s projected timing for hitting its price target, and inflation is expected to re-accelerate from the current slowdown.US VP Vance said they see evidence that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon; US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran poses a grave threat and seeks nuclear capability.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Feb), US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Lombardelli & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Italy & US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell, Baidu, Warner Bros Discovery, Munich Re, Schneider Electric, AXA, Engie & Saint-Gobain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump talked up the economy in his State of the Union Address, saying that the nation is back, bigger, better and stronger than before, while he added that we've seen nothing yet.Regarding tariffs, Trump said the Supreme Court decision on tariffs is very unfortunate but added that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals.European bourses firmer as HSBC lifts the banking sector; US equity futures hold onto Anthropic- driven gains. DXY flat, Aussie outpaces peers post CPI while JPY lags in continuation of recent weakness.JGBs underperform on Takaichi's "reflationist" BoJ candidates; USTs await Fed speak & NVDA.Crude prices rangebound; Spot XAU holds above USD 5200/oz.  Looking ahead, highlights include Fed’s Musalem, Barkin & Schmid. Supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Snowflake, TJX Companies, Lowe's & Synopsys.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall Street after Anthropic's presentation helped soothe some AI/software concerns, and with tech also bolstered by the USD 60bln Meta-AMD chip deal; Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed flat on Tuesday.US President Trump talked up the economy in his State of the Union Address, saying that the nation is back, bigger, better and stronger than before, while he added that we've seen nothing yet.Regarding tariffs, Trump said the Supreme Court decision on tariffs is very unfortunate but added that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals.Trump also commented on Iran, which he claimed is working on missiles that could soon reach the US, and noted Iran wants to make a deal but hasn't yet said that it won't pursue nuclear weapons.Antipodeans were firmer amid the positive risk appetite, and with AUD/USD leading the advances following firmer-than-expected monthly CPI data from Australia.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK (Mar), GDP Final (Q4), Swiss Sentiment (Feb), EZ HICP Final (Jan). Speakers include RBA’s Bullock, Fed’s Musalem, Barkin & Schmid. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Snowflake, TJX Companies, Lowe's, Synopsys & Bayer.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk