Recession Indicators Go Off, Is the Housing Market Safe?

The US economy isn’t doing as well as you think—it’s doing even better. While mainstream media outlets and grocery prices may make you feel that the US economy is struggling, the data points to something different. Inflation is getting under control, the Fed is about to lower rates, recession risks could be shrinking, and a long-term growth trend is emerging. The American economy is leading what Joe Brusuelas calls the “global recovery.” Named 2023 “Best Rate Forecaster” by Bloomberg, Joe has an unmatched view of the economy at a macro and microeconomic level. Today, we’re talking to Joe about the state of the US economy and why it’s outperforming global players like China. Joe shares the “secret sauce” that is helping the US take center stage in global economic growth, which could keep us on course to see continued economic success for years to come. But, with China’s economy showing cracks, the Middle East conflict getting more tense by the day, and the risk of recession still top of mind, what’s next for the US economy? Joe gives his economic outlook and shares the most significant risks the US economy could face, plus why he sees a BIG Fed rate cut coming in 2025.  In This Episode We Cover The state of the US economy and why we’re seeing such unmatched economic growth The “secret sauce” that makes the American economy particularly efficient China’s growing economic troubles and whether it could bleed into the US economy Fed rate cut predictions and why we may see a BIG drop in rates by this time next year Joe’s US economic forecast and the regions of the US real estate investors MUST watch Commercial real estate risks and whether we should still be worried about “the wall” of maturing debt And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find Investor-Friendly Lenders See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On The Market Podcast 196 - China Falters, Israel’s Oil Danger, and Russia’s Assets Used Against Them w/Joe Brusuelas Learn More from Joe Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 01:51 US Economy is Booming  06:52 Recession Risk? 08:43 China’s Economic Trap  13:31 Will This Hurt the US? 14:45 Middle East Oil Risks  17:42 US Economic Forecast  25:27 What Commercial Crash?  27:28 Fed Rate Cuts Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-253 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are we finally at the end stages of this harsh housing market? With housing inventory increasing, mortgage rates steadily falling, and inflation cooling, we might be returning to a much healthier time to buy a house. But one of these improvements we’ve seen over the past year could begin reversing, and that’s creating some interesting future scenarios. One that even we’re surprised to hear as we bring on top housing market analyst Logan Mohtashami. Logan has referred to 2022-2023’s housing market as “savagely unhealthy,” but he’s a bit more optimistic now that we’re seeing relief. While we’re still not at 2019 inventory levels (which were already low), we’re slowly getting there. However, we could see the positive inventory trend start to reverse, leading to even more affordability problems for homebuyers. So what has to happen for affordability to see meaningful improvement? Today, Logan is giving us his take on housing inventory, where mortgage rates could be heading, and why we may NOT see a spike in home prices even if rates fall significantly (something most analysts are bullish on). In This Episode We Cover Logan’s housing market, mortgage rate, and inventory forecast Why our increasing housing inventory could reverse once rates start to fall The one thing holding affordability back and whether Logan has hopes of it improving Why watching the labor market and jobs numbers will help you predict mortgage rates Were we wrong about the “lower rates = higher home prices” premise? And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Find Investor-Friendly Lenders See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Learn More from Logan On The Market Podcast 86 - Here’s What Will Cause Mortgage Rates to Finally Fall w/Logan Mohtashami Know the Ins-and-Outs of Real Estate with “Real Estate by the Numbers" Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 02:05 The "Baby Pivot" Stage  05:46 The Home Sales Recession  08:49 Housing Inventory Update  15:30 Rates Will Decline MORE If... 19:59 Mortgage Rate Forecast 24:48 When Will Affordability Improve? 29:05 Biggest Takeaways Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-252 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

No matter who wins your vote during the presidential debates, odds are, the housing market will still have its problems. We’ve got high building costs, low inventory, and slow bureaucratic procedures that stop homes from being built or renovated. So, what would WE do if we were in charge of the country’s economic policies, and how would we use them to make a better housing market? Welcome to the 2024 On the Market debates, where Dave, Henry, James, and Kathy duke it out over who has the best housing policy, economic plan, and…presidential slogan. We’re putting our plans out in the open for you to vote on. Dave is focusing on construction prices, Henry wants to “Make Housing Affordable Again,” Kathy is rallying to reduce government spending, and James wants to fast-track building and renovations so housing inventory can grow. Who has the best housing market policy, and are there any you’d personally want to see on the ballot come the next election? Leave a review and let us know your thoughts, or give your take over on our YouTube channel! In This Episode We Cover Four economic policies we’d put into place TODAY to save the housing market Tax breaks for investors and builders and why the government MUST incentivize affordable housing  Speeding up permitting times with a plan that could help those who can’t afford home repairs Why we NEED more Americans learning the trades before it’s too late Are prefab homes the future of affordable housing in America? Here’s why Dave thinks so And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile How the Financial Policies of Trump and Harris Could Impact Real Estate Investors Live Like Jett Foundation Grab Kathy’s New Book “Scaling Smart” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 03:57 Make Housing Affordable Again 12:31 Path of Progress 21:21 Scaling Smart  32:19 Construction is Too Expensive Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-251 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How will the Trump and Harris economic plans affect your investing? One candidate is looking to increase affordable housing and give homebuyers a break on their first property. The other plans to keep taxes low so you can save more money. Both are concerned about inflation and rising costs, but will either of their plans correct the national budget deficit we constantly find ourselves in? We’re digging into the 2024 election economics on this BiggerNews episode with economist Joel Naroff. First, we’re discussing what happens economically during elections as Americans brace for a new president. Then, we dive into Harris’ economic plan and stance on inflation, cost of living, and affordable housing. She also has her eye on raising taxes for high-income earners, but will she bring things back to the pre-Trump era? Next, the Trump economic plan. Just like in his presidency, Trump plans to reduce taxes even more, which could help those on social security and those who make their income from tips. The question is, will this loss of tax revenue put too much of a dent in our government’s budget and push us further into a deficit? Could Trump’s pro-tariff stance help stimulate local manufacturing and increase tax revenue from imported goods? We’re answering it all on this BiggerNews! In This Episode We Cover Trump vs. Harris’ economic plans explained and how they may affect investors More affordable housing and Harris’ call to build millions of more housing units Trump’s plan to push foreign goods out of the US with higher import tariffs Rolling back Trump’s tax cuts and how Harris could increase taxes on corporations and high-earners Social security income and the benefit (but high cost) of lowering taxes on it How both of these plans could affect the national budget deficit  And So Much More! Links from the Show Stay Updated on Investing News with the BiggerPockets Blog Join BiggerPockets for FREE Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show! Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Naroff Economics How the Financial Policies of Trump and Harris Could Impact Real Estate Investors Grab Dave’s Latest Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 01:52 Election Economics 03:42 Harris’ Plan  8:38 More Affordable Housing? 12:16 Higher Taxes?  15:10 Trump’s Plan 19:11 More Social Security Income? 21:47 Eliminating Taxes on Tips  24:22 National Budget Deficit Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-250 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One startup is aiming to end traditional real estate commissions for good. Jobs numbers get their most significant downgrade in over a decade, forcing the Fed to rethink its rate-cutting schedule. And if that wasn’t enough, home sales fell in a historically hot month of the housing market. But are the expert investors worried? In this headlines episode, we’re sharing the latest news affecting the housing market and what YOU can do now to still make money in real estate, no matter the headline hype. First, we’re talking about the latest home sales numbers. With a slow summer homebuying season, we may return to a “balanced” market where investors can thrive if they know what they’re doing. What could bring more demand to the market? Lower mortgage rates. And with the latest revision on job numbers, downgrading job growth significantly, the Fed may be forced to pivot and make bigger moves when cutting rates. Will it happen? Lastly, we’ll discuss the new state of real estate agent commissions. After the groundbreaking NAR lawsuit that put agent commissions in limbo, a new startup has set out to offer flat-fee real estate agent services in an à la carte fashion. Will paying just a few hundred dollars get you the level of agent experience you need to close better real estate deals? We’re discussing it all in this episode! In This Episode We Cover The new real estate startup that could put traditional agent commissions in jeopardy What investors should know as home sales drop and whether it's an opportunity Planning for mortgage rates to fall and how to build in more investing upside if they do The latest job numbers REVISION putting our economy in a different spot than we thought Whether or not the Fed will change course now that job numbers don’t look as strong And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area See James, Kathy, and Henry at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Henry's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile The NAR Will Eliminate 6% Commission Standards and Pay $418 Million in Damages After Settling Lawsuit Two Things The Latest Home Sales Numbers Say About The Real Estate Market  U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009  After winning a landmark case against real estate agents, this startup aims to replace them with a flat fee  Economic Confidence Up Slightly in August Pre-Order Kathy’s New Book “Scaling Smart” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 01:15 Home Sales, Prices Drop 11:15 Planning for Rates to Fall  17:33 Job Numbers Get Revised   28:07 Agents Go Flat-Fee Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-249 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Recession fears are increasing. The stock market has taken substantial hits, housing inventory is climbing, and bank account balances are starting to fall. So, with more economic turmoil, we have to ask: will the housing market crash? And if we get a housing market crash, how bad (or good) will it be for investors? Could we see a 2008-style selloff, or should we be more prepared for small dips worth taking advantage of? Today, we’re asking two top investors these questions, one of whom literally wrote the book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing. J Scott and James Dainard join us on today’s episode to discuss market crash predictions, scenarios, and opportunities for real estate investors. Both J and James experienced the 2008 housing market crash—an economic event almost impossible to forget. But is 2024 shaping up for a sharp decline like 2008, or will we simply see a slower real estate market like most people had expected when interest rates began to rise? If the market DOES crash, what should you look for to take advantage, and how do you ensure you don’t get caught biting off more than you can chew? J and James break down their game plans if prices fall and why buying now could set you up for wealth ten years from now, IF you can handle the “fear” of buying when others are running from real estate. In This Episode We Cover New housing market “crash” predictions and how low prices could go Why economic “fear” is rising now, and the recession indicators that are going off Rising housing inventory and why experienced investors expected this already The difference between the 2008 housing market crash and today What could cause a housing crash and how to know it’s time to buy The immense opportunities for investors that 99% of Americans will pass up And So Much More! Links from the Show Join BiggerPockets for FREE Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show! Find Investor-Friendly Lenders See Dave and James at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile J's BiggerPockets Profile Why Has the Housing Market Not Crashed in Over 15 Years? Grab J’s Book “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing” Jump to topic: (00:00) Intro (04:01) New Recession Fears (14:25) Is This Like 2008? (18:05) What Will Cause a Crash  (31:11) What to Do During a Crash  (36:56) Opportunity for Investors Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-248 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are we in a recession? A lot of people certainly think so. After a surprisingly accurate recession indicator went off weeks ago, more and more Americans have begun to believe that we’re already facing an economic downturn. The problem? We rarely know we’re in a recession until we’re out of one. So, how can we be sure we’re in a recession and not just seeing a boomerang effect from the hot post-pandemic economy? For many Americans, it sure FEELS like a recession. Unemployment has gradually increased, the cost of living has risen significantly over the past few years, and men may be buying fewer pairs of underwear (that’s actually a recession indicator). So, if we are in a recession, what should real estate investors do now to prepare so they don’t get the rug pulled on them before it’s too late? Do you sit tight or start contemplating selling properties? Dave, Henry, and Kathy all share what they’d do in a recession, the not-so-obvious signs of a recession (or a recession in your specific industry), and whether or not they believe we’ll be in a recession over the next year. If the worst has yet to come, you’ll be able to spot the signs of a coming recession after this episode. In This Episode We Cover Whether or not we’re in a recession right now (and signs of one) The one recession indicator going off that’s pointing to an economic downturn Signs that we’re already in a recession and what we would do during one How to deleverage yourself from riskier properties if the economy starts to slow Whether or not a recession is still in the cards over the next year  Why it may be time to start saving once your husband/brother/nephew stops wearing new underwear And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile On The Market 238 - Recession “Yellow Flags” Emerge as Unemployment Metric Rises Get Your BPCon2024 Tickets!  59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds Grab the Book “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 03:08 Is This Time Different?  04:26 Recession Indicators  09:21 What Does “Recession” Mean? 20:15 What to Do During a Recession  27:38 Are We in a Recession? Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-247  Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mortgage rates are falling, but the Fed hasn’t made any rate cuts yet. What’s the deal? We’re explaining it all in this August mortgage rate update with repeat guest and lender-friend of the show, Caeli Ridge. Caeli fills us in on today’s mortgage interest rates, why rates are moving without any federal funds rate cuts happening, what could cause rates to go even lower, and whether paying points on your mortgage makes sense in the current market. Good news for investors: interest rates are getting into the high sixes for some rental property loans, but lower rates aren’t always a good thing. With the economy slowing down and inflation (thankfully) seeing some significant progress, unemployment is rising, and better interest rates may come at the cost of a worse economy. But this isn’t a surprise, no matter how unfortunate it is for many workers in today’s market. We’re getting Caeli’s take on the Fed’s next moves, today’s mortgage rates, and what’s in store for future rates. This is crucial commentary from a lender working on loan products for investors in today’s exact interest rate environment, and hearing her may change your next investing move. Dave also gives his opinion on the mortgage rates we could expect to see next year and whether buying or refinancing even makes sense now. In This Episode We Cover August 2024 mortgage rate updates and where investor interest rates are right now Why mortgage rates have been falling WITHOUT the Fed lowering their rates Paying mortgage points and whether or not it’s worth it if rates are continuing to fall The BIG uptick in refinancing and purchasing activity since rates began to fall Where Dave thinks mortgage rates could be next year And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Find Investor-Friendly Lenders See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Caeli's BiggerPockets Profile With Mortgage Rates Falling, When Should Investors Refinance? Get Dave’s Mortgage Point Calculator Analyze Real Estate Like a Pro with “Real Estate by the Numbers” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 00:54 Mortgage Rate Update 04:43 Powell Talks, Rates Change  09:19 Bad News if Rates Fall  10:27 What Else Affects Rates 14:04 “Points Options” Improve  15:47 Advice for Investors  18:20 Dave’s Take on Future Rates Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-246 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kamala Harris has a plan to make it easier for first-time homebuyers to buy a house, but it comes at the expense of institutional investors. Eviction filings surge throughout the Sunbelt states, EVEN as apartment rent prices fall across all bedroom counts. And could commercial real estate’s struggles lead to you paying even higher property taxes? We’re getting into it all in today’s headlines show! First, we’re talking about Kamala Harris’ new proposal to kick Wall Street out of the single-family homebuying arena, potentially opening up space for first-time homebuyers to finally break out of renting. The proposal sounds promising, but is it too late to actually impact today’s housing market when institutional investors take up such a small amount of the single-family supply? We’re giving our takes on the new proposal. Apartment rent prices fall across all bedroom counts for the first time in years. But, even with seemingly improving rent affordability, eviction filings have surged across the South. Even with the rent drops, are tenants simply unable to pay such high prices for everything, rent included, in 2024? Lastly, we’re talking about how the decline in commercial real estate and office space has led to cities increasing property taxes, and by no small amount. In This Episode We Cover Whether Kamala Harris’ anti-Wall Street ownership proposal could work for homebuyers Why apartment rent prices are falling, and whether or not this will continue Single-family rents and why we AREN’T noticing them fall too The real reason evictions have seen such a spike across the Sunbelt states Commercial real estate-caused property tax hikes happening in THESE cities And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Property Manager Finder See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile How the Financial Policies of Trump and Harris Could Impact Real Estate Investors Kamala Harris wants to stop Wall Street's homebuying spree  Asking Rents Fall Across All Bedroom Counts for First Time in 4 Years  Evictions Surge in Major Cities in the American Sunbelt How much do downtown real estate losses lead to property tax hikes? Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: (00:00) Intro (01:45) Harris’ New Homebuying Proposal  (16:41) Rent Prices Fall  (25:40) Evictions Surge in Sunbelt States (36:13) CRE-Caused Property Tax Hikes Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and   https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-245 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New “broker fee” reform could help tenants save thousands of dollars when finding their next apartment or home to rent, but it could come at a significant cost to landlords. In big cities like Boston and New York, it’s not unusual for landlords to hire a broker to help bring in more potential tenants. The problem is that, unlike the rest of the United States, landlords in these cities DON’T have to pay the broker—the tenant does. But this isn’t some small fee. These broker fees range from eight to fifteen percent of the annual rent, and in pricey Boston or New York City, that could mean thousands of dollars in fees to move into a new place. We brought on StreetEasy Senior Economist Kenny Lee to explain why this antiquated system is still in place and whether or not the reform will go through and help renters. What are the economic implications for the rental market if these reforms are passed? Will this help renters, landlords, or both, and could it actually increase competition in already competitive markets by lowering the barrier to entry for finding a new rental? In This Episode We Cover Boston and NYC’s “broker fees” explained and why they’re so different from the rest of the US How the broker fee reform could change the rental market in big cities The cost of moving and how high broker fees restrict renters who are already struggling What broker fee reform could do to rental property demand in these big cities Broker fee negotiation and what the future looks like for landlords who have to pay these finder’s fees And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile New York City’s Real Estate Brokerages Could Be Destroyed By a New Law Connect with Kenny Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: (00:00) Intro (02:22) Tenants Forced to Pay Fees (05:18) Why in NYC? (08:47) New Reform to Help Renters  (12:09) Will This Change the Rental Market? (15:16) Better for Everyone? Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and   https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-244 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices