Is Europe preparing for the wrong kind of war?

What does security mean in a world where the nature of conflict is changing – and traditional alliances can no longer be taken for granted? As Europe faces rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic alliance and a growing range of threats beyond conventional warfare, what should a smarter approach to security look like?From defence spending and deterrence to diplomacy, statecraft and the human costs of conflict, this episode explores how governments can respond to a world where security is no longer simply about preparing for war.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalSanam Naraghi-Anderlini, Founder and CEO, International Civil Society Action NetworkSir Laurie Bristow, Former ambassador to Russia, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan, FCO Director of National Security and RUSI Distinguished Fellow.Nathalie Tocci, Chair of the ODI Europe BoardRelated resourcesThe European Security Strategy is stalled; Europe's counter-terrorism strategy shows a way throughThe security we need: rebalancing military spending for a sustainable and peaceful futureThink Change episode 66: how is Ukraine redefining global security?

As governments globally face growing pressure to raise revenue, amid concerns about inequality and who will have to contribute more, taxing the wealthiest is back at the centre of the debate both in national tax reforms and in international negotiations.In this episode, we bring together proposals for a coordinated global minimum tax on billionaires and data and evidence on how much tax they pay. We'll hear perspectives from African tax administrations on how they are strengthening existing national taxes and administrative capacity, and what it might take to tax the wealthiest wherever they are.  The conversation goes beyond the headline debate to ask what taxation of the wealthiest could actually mean for low- and middle-income countries: how do we measure wealth and income, how much tax do the richest pay relative to their income, how wealth taxes interact with existing taxes on employment, capital and inheritance, and what could reforms deliver for countries looking to raise more revenue fairly? Guests:Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODI Global (Think Change host) Hazel Granger, Senior Research Fellow ODI Global Ronald Waiswa, Specialist for Applied Research and Statistics, ATAFWouter Leenders, Lecturer in Economics, Kings College LondonResources:Making tax systems fairer and more effective (Resource hub)Wealth-related taxes in low- and middle-income countries (Publication)There are fewer than 4,000 billionaires worldwide, and they now hold a record $15.1 trillion. That’s nearly half of the U.S. economy (Article, Forbes)

As world leaders gather in New York for the 81st Session of the High level UN General Assembly, questions about power, leadership and the future of international cooperation are high on the agenda. But what does meaningful leadership look like for people living through displacement?People with lived experience of displacement are often the furthest from the decisions that shape their lives, despite being best placed to understand what their communities need.While international institutions are increasingly creating spaces for displaced people to participate, consultation alone does not necessarily shift who holds power.In this episode of Think Change, we explore how refugee-led organisations are building more democratic and accountable ways of working, why funding remains such a powerful barrier to local leadership and what governments, donors and international institutions would need to do differently to support communities to lead their own responses.Guests share their experiences of challenging existing power structures and making the case for a different model of humanitarian action – one that puts agency, rights and dignity at its centre, and sees local leadership not as a side programme, but as the future of the response.Through research and convening on humanitarian crises, ODI Global’s Humanitarian Policy Group (HPG) strives to work collaboratively and equitably with local actors and researchers. HPG believes that close collaboration and equitable partnerships are the foundations of meaningful research and impact.In 2026, we sought to formalise this approach by forming a Displacement Advisory Group (DAG). The members of the group – which includes Sana, Hafsar and Ana – represent diverse geographies, backgrounds and expertise from across policy, practice and academia, but share lived experience of displacement. Watch this space as we launch the DAG’s work in the coming days.Guests:Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODI Global (Think Change host)Sana Mustafa, Co-Founder of the Resourcing Refugee Leadership Initiative, the first global fund by refugeesHafsar Tameesuddin, Co-Secretary General of Asia Pacific Refugee Rights NetworkAna Maria Diez, Presidente of Coalición por VenezuelaRelated resources:What refugee-led organisations teach us about measuring impact in displacement settingsRefugee-led organisations and Lebanon’s displacement crisisFrom commitment to action: financing refugee leadership in an era of cuts

What happens when communities are forced to govern themselves?Across conflict-affected contexts, communities are often doing far more than surviving the breakdown or failure of formal institutions.They are organising, delivering services, making decisions, representing their communities and creating new forms of governance - sometimes long before peace agreements are signed or states are rebuilt.In this episode of Think Change, we explore what makes these systems legitimate, how movements navigate power and internal tensions, and what allows them to endure. We also ask what governments, humanitarian organisations, donors and diaspora communities can do differently to support locally led efforts without undermining the independence, legitimacy and accountability that make them work.Drawing on conversations from a seminar series hosted by the Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development (ARDD) and ODI Global, our host Sara Pantuliano is joined by Charles Petrie, Ibrahim Basha and Mark Daou to explore what these movements can teach us about governance, justice and dignity and whether we need to rethink what we mean by a functioning state.Guests:Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalCharles Petrie, former UN Assistant Secretary-General and Visiting Senior Fellow at ODI Global;Ibrahim Basha, Deputy Team Lead of the Yemen Flexible Fund Mechanism and Senior Technical Advisor to the Yemen Support Facility; andMark Daou, Lebanese activist, public affairs expert and Member of the Lebanese Parliament since 2022.Related resources'Wrong diagnosis, Wrong cure' - launch of the 'Perspectives' blog seriesThink Change episode 93: how do wars end?Agency in Action: accelerating the shift towards locally-led crisis response

Humanitarian crises are often understood through the lens of immediate need: more aid, more access and more funding.But ODI Global’s new report Oppression, Liberation and Humanitarianism in Palestine, Myanmar and Sudan argues that we must also understand the systems of power that produce and sustain suffering.In this episode of Think Change, guests Dustin Barter, Hala Al Karib and Athena Rayburn explore what humanitarian action can learn from movements of solidarity and resistance and what it would mean to build a system that supports not only survival, but dignity, justice and liberation.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalDustin Barter, Senior Research Fellow ODI GlobalHala Al Karib, Regional Director of the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa (SIHA).Athena Rayburn, Executive Director, Association of International Development Agencies (AIDA)Related resourcesOppression, liberation and humanitarianism in Palestine, Myanmar and SudanA humanitarian trap? Navigating neutrality, relief and rights in Ethiopia, Myanmar, Syria and GuatemalaOppression, liberation and humanitarianism in Palestine, Myanmar and Sudan

This episode of Think Change explores the growing environmental footprint of artificial intelligence – from rising energy demand and emissions to the vast quantities of water needed to power and cool the data centres behind today’s AI revolution.As Europe experiences another summer of record-breaking heat, devastating wildfires and growing water stress, the race to develop and deploy AI raises urgent questions about how we balance technological progress with climate goals. Can the environmental costs of AI be managed? And who bears the burden when new technologies increase pressure on already stretched resources?The conversation looks beyond technology alone to the governance challenges shaping AI’s future: who sets the rules, whose interests are prioritised, and how we can ensure that AI development supports rather than deepens existing inequalities.Recorded during London Climate Action Week, the episode brings together perspectives on energy systems, climate policy and international cooperation to ask what it will take to build an AI future that is innovative, sustainable and fair.Guests:Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalDivij Joshi, Research Fellow, ODI GlobalJoaquim Levy, former Finance Minister of Brazil and a Commissioner of the Future of Development Cooperation CoalitionFiona Macklin, Head of Climate, ApoliticalRelated resourcesAI’s climate consequences: why AI governance needs to confront climate injusticeThe Paris AI Summit: is geopolitical rivalry derailing AI governance?The environmental risks of generative AI: why better global governance is urgently neededGlobal Critical Minerals Outlook 2025

Following Andy Burnham’s appointment as Britain's Prime Minister, there is renewed interest in what some have described as ‘Manchesterism’ – a political philosophy rooted in place, economic renewal and the belief that national prosperity begins with strong local communities. But if this approach were to shape government thinking, what could it mean beyond Britain’s borders?This episode explores whether a place-based politics could shift Britain’s foreign policy. Would international engagement be judged less by Britain’s global status and more by whether it delivers prosperity and security for communities at home? Could trade, diplomacy and development become tools of regional renewal? Any new government would also inherit profound constraints. With pressure to increase defence spending, sluggish economic growth and difficult choices over taxation and public services, how would a Manchesterist approach balance competing priorities? What role would overseas development assistance play? And what happens to Britain’s soft power if resources become increasingly scarce? More broadly, does Britain need a different organising principle for foreign policy in an era where domestic resilience and international engagement are becoming increasingly intertwined? GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalRoli Ashtana, Senior Advisor, ODI Global & Senior Research Associate at South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)Laura Chappell, Associate director for international policy, IPPRKate Ferguson, Co-Executive Director, Protection ApproachesRelated resourcesBurnham, Manchesterism and the return of place in foreign policy (LSE blog, by Roli Ashtana)Navigating trade-offs in the global economy: A framework for a world between orders (Report, IPPR)

Across the world, a familiar story is being retold with striking success: that stagnant wages, housing crises and crumbling public services are the fault of migrants and outsiders - not the billionaires and global systems quietly getting richer. It's a story reshaping elections, hardening divisions, and in some places, fuelling violence.In this episode of Think Change, Sara Pantuliano is joined by Dimi Reider (Othering and Belonging Institute / Shared Futures Institute), Tania Cheung, Libby Lenkinski and Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou to ask: why do stories so often beat facts? Why has fact-checking failed to stop divisive narratives from taking hold? And what would it actually take to build a competing story - one rooted in justice and redistribution, not nostalgia for a status quo that wasn't working either?The conversation ranges from the mechanics of how harmful narratives spread, to what's breaking down in how NGOs and philanthropy communicate, to where power, money and attention need to shift if progressive narratives are ever going to compete.Guests:Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalTania Cheung, Head of the Shifting the Power Programme at Comic Relief Dimi Reider, journalist, policy analyst and facilitator at the Othering and Belonging Institute and Shared Futures Institute Libby Lenkinski, Founding President of AlbiKathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director Politics and Governance, ODI Global Related resources:Building Narratives for Change: where culture strategy meets policy (Event recording, ODI Global)ODI Global Strategy, 2026-2031Shifting Narratives: From Aid to Agency Shifting the Power Comms Lab Report (Report, Comic Relief)

Our first episode of Think Change, recorded in March 2022 just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, explored how disinformation was shaping narratives around a fast-moving conflict. We asked who was producing it, how it spread through digital platforms, and how it influenced public understanding of war in real time. Three years on, to mark our 100th episode, we return to these same questions – which have become pivotal to understanding not only conflicts around the world but also international politics.Information has become a battleground. Trust in institutions and the media is waning. And AI is transforming how narratives are created, amplified, contested – often faster than we can make sense of them.In this special episode, leading commentators and thinkers reflect on what has changed since our first episode, and what happens to a society when its members can no longer agree on what is true.GuestsSara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODI Global (Think Change host) Lyse Doucet, BBC Chief International Correspondent  Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, Former UN diplomat & Former President of the Open Society Foundations  Ksenia Iliuk, Co-founder, LetsData Related resourcesDisinformation and the Russia-Ukraine War (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)A war on many fronts: disinformation around the Russia-Ukraine war (Expert comment, ODI Global)Has AI ushered in an existential crisis of trust in democracy? (Expert comment, ODI Global)Digital Societies Hub (ODI Global)

The first-ever International Peacebuilding Week, which will run from 22-26 June, comes at a critical moment. Violent conflict is becoming more protracted, global cooperation is under strain, and climate shocks, displacement and weak institutions are compounding risks in some of the world's most fragile settings.Can a dedicated week for peacebuilding help shift the conversation from crisis response to long-term investment in peace?In this Think Change episode, guests discuss what it will take to turn renewed attention into meaningful action.Together, they explore the politics of peacebuilding, the importance of accountability, the growing links between climate and conflict, and why countries most affected by fragility must be at the centre of shaping solutions.As calls for accountability grow in conflicts, including Gaza and Sudan, the conversation asks whether International Peacebuilding Week can become more than a forum for discussion and help build a truly global movement for peace.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalElizabeth Spehar, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding and Peace Support, Departments of Political and Peacebuilding AffairsMichael Keating, Executive Director, European Institute of PeaceHabib Ur Rehman Mayar, Deputy General Secretary, g7+ SecretariatMauricio Vazquez, Head of Policy, ODI Global Risks and Resilience programmeRelated resourcesWhat can – and can’t – the private sector deliver for climate action in fragile states? (Expert comment, ODI Global)Transforming research practices in fragile and conflict contexts: insights from those working on the frontline (Expert comment, ODI Global)Building resilience in complex and conflict settings (ODI Global)The Summit of the Future – how can we build peaceful societies in a fragmented world? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)