Deception Detection Doesn't Work: Credibility Assessment & the Real OODA Loop | Kent Clizbe

Send us Fan MailKeir Wenham-Flatt says skill is movement-based problem solving, and a tackle is a decision made under pressure. That changes how football coaches should train it.Keir made his name as a professional strength coach in rugby, has worked in five countries, and is now rebuilding his Learn to Tackle curriculum for American football. He and Brian "Ponch" Rivera cover why size and speed rarely decide who wins, why about half the tackles Keir has analyzed needed a second effort, commander's intent in football, the five fights of a tackle, representative design, mental toughness, NIL, what football can learn from rugby, and tackle safety. Ponch ties it to the real OODA loop, where the tackler orients to what the ball carrier does next.Learn to Tackle: https://learntotackle.comShawn Myszka on No Way Out: https://youtu.be/_eBDrpMyZTYStay connected with No Way Out and Conceptual SpiralX: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLXSubstack: Conceptual Spiral - conceptualspiral.comStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailEcological dynamics researcher Keith Davids says skill adaptation is a better term than skill acquisition for how people learn. The difference shapes how coaches design practice, run the debrief and set intent.Keith Davids is Professor of Perceptual-Motor Learning at Sheffield Hallam University and co-author of The Constraints-Led Approach (Routledge, 2019). He and Brian "Ponch" Rivera cover heterarchy and self-organization, intention and attunement, Karl Newell's interacting constraints, strong and weak anticipation, co-design with athletes, and attractor landscapes. Davids says a good athlete acts like a scientist and the performer is the problem solver. Ponch ties the conversation to the real OODA loop, where orientation sits at the center and the performer and the environment form one system.The Constraints Collective: https://www.theconstraintscollective.comJohn Flach on No Way Out: https://youtu.be/R5w8SQN_U3IStay connected with No Way Out and Conceptual SpiralX: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLXSubstack: Conceptual Spiral - conceptualspiral.comStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailAlex Sarama never played professional basketball. He started coaching at 14 in England, worked two years as an assistant coach with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and in 2026 led the expansion Portland Fire through their first WNBA season. He founded Transforming Basketball and co-wrote A Constraints-Led Approach to Coaching Basketball (Routledge, 2026).Two young players open the episode with their own questions for him. Then Sarama and Brian "Ponch" Rivera cover the constraints-led approach, youth sport and parents, coach licensing in Europe, and why the game got too random. He tells his players never to surprise a teammate, and his timeouts open with the players debriefing each other. Ponch ties principles of play to mission command and the real OODA loop, where orientation shapes what a team sees and how it acts.Alex Sarama: https://transformingbball.comAlex's co-author George Vaz on No Way Out: https://youtu.be/8v8AY73NlnsStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailA revolution in military affairs needs more than new technology. Fred Stein, co-author of Network Centric Warfare, says doctrine and organization have to move with it.Retired U.S. Army Colonel Fred Stein co-wrote Network Centric Warfare in 1999 with David Alberts and John Garstka. In January he could not break the code on Ukraine. He returns to Brian "Ponch" Rivera with an answer. Ukraine changed its organization and doctrine alongside its drones, and Stein, citing the Wall Street Journal, notes its drone units are about 2.5 percent of its armed forces. The United States can build the technology. Stein's concern is the testing, acquisition and experimentation system that carries it into the force, and his advice to new organizations is an honest after-action review of the ones that failed.Ponch ties it to John Boyd. Open, complex systems call for the real OODA loop, where orientation shapes what a force sees and how it acts.Fred Stein: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fred-stein-col-ret-006b4a3Fred's first episode: https://youtu.be/Jise7nYK21sStay connected with No Way Out and Conceptual SpiralX: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLXSubstack: Conceptual Spiral - conceptualspiral.comStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailReading people works far less often than the experts claim. Former professional poker player Zach Elwood explains when a behavioral read helps and why it usually doesn't.Zach Elwood wrote Reading Poker Tells, Verbal Poker Tells and Exploiting Poker Tells, and hosts People Who Read People. With Brian "Ponch" Rivera he explains why even good readers act on a tell only a couple of times in an eight-hour session, why reads that help at a poker table fail in an interrogation room, and what Tim Levine's research in Duped shows about nonverbal lie detection. He uses Gary Klein's approach to turn gut reads into named factors.Ponch ties it to John Boyd. Orientation shapes what a person perceives, and a decision meets an environment nobody controls. Elwood's lesson from poker matches it: you can't be results oriented.Zach Elwood: https://behavior-podcast.comPoker tells: https://readingpokertells.comStay connected with No Way OutX: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLXStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailDeception detection, credibility assessment, and the real OODA loop. Former CIA case officer Kent Clizbe explains why reading the body fails and what he does instead.Kent Clizbe served as a staff CIA case officer in the 1990s and as a contractor after 9/11. He is the author of Holistic Contextual Credibility Assessment and Willing Accomplices. With Brian "Ponch" Rivera he explains why he stopped trusting deception detection. He says East German and Cuban sources passed the agency's body-measurement tests, and every one of them was a double agent.His method is holistic contextual credibility assessment (HCCA). It depends on contextual competence, which is real knowledge of the subject's country, language, profession, and subculture. Clizbe walks through a weapons source who was working in a moped factory, his lunch with Wayne Simmons, and his years vetting hires in the dot-com boom. Ponch connects the method to John Boyd: culture and previous experience sit inside orientation, and orientation shapes what a person observes and how he acts.Kent Clizbe: https://kentclizbe.comWhy They Lie on Substack: https://kentclizbe.substack.comStay connected with No Way Out X: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLXStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailPolice training, the constraints-led approach, and the real OODA loop. Dr. Pete Blair of ALERRT explains why training has to look like the job an officer will do.Dr. J. Pete Blair is Executive Director of the Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training (ALERRT) Center and Professor of Criminal Justice at Texas State University. With Ponch Rivera he asks why so much training consists of things that are not the thing. He walks through the firearms qualification, the four parts of the constraints-led approach, and why good training looks messy.From there the conversation moves to John Boyd. Dr. Blair describes how policing learned the OODA loop as a sequence, and the two compare Boyd's full sketch with the perception-action loop of ecological dynamics. The second half covers John Vervaeke's 4P model, the four kinds of knowing, and why Dr. Blair starts training from the role the learner will occupy. His example is how you learned to ride a bike.Tactical Science on Substack: https://tacticalscience.substack.comALERRT: https://alerrt.orgStay connected with No Way Out and The Whirl Of ReOrientationX: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLX | Stay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailNeuroweapons, cognitive warfare, and the real OODA loop. Dr. James Giordano returns to No Way Out three years after his first appearance (Ep 35) to show how dispositions shape what we observe before we ever orient.Dr. Giordano is Special Advisor to the Office of the Assistant Secretary of War (CBRN) and Head of the Center for Strategic Deterrence and Weapons of Mass Destruction Studies of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He retired from Georgetown University Medical Center after a 20-year career as Professor Emeritus of Neurology, Biochemistry and Ethics. With Brian "Ponch" Rivera he walks through the dOODAc loop, his extension of John Boyd's OODA loop with dispositions in front and consequences at the back, and the two test it against Boyd's own sketches.From there the conversation moves into the cognitive domain as biological, psychological, and social at once, how each layer becomes a target, and why he describes directed energy neuroweapons as a clear and present threat. He closes on human-machine teaming, DoD Directive 3000.09, and a model his team calls SYNTHCOM that keeps decision authority with the human.Dr. Giordano's connection dropped about 40 minutes in, and he finished the conversation audio-only from the National Defense University. His views are his own and do not represent the U.S. government, the Department of War, or the National Defense University.Dr. Giordano on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-james-giordano-8454476/His latest commentary, on Havana syndrome: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2026/9/25/commentary-havana-syndromes-new-term-gives-rise-to-new-approachesStay connected with No Way Out and AGLXX: @NoWayOutcast | @PonchAGLX AGLX: https://www.aglx.com/no-way-out/Stay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailWhere does recovery fit in the plan, brief, execute, debrief cycle? CAPT (Sel.) Kevin Bernstein, MD, is building human performance optimization into naval aviation to answer it.Bernstein is the Navy sports medicine physician building a human performance program for naval aviation at Commander, Naval Air Force Atlantic, after tours with Naval Special Warfare Group Two and Navy football. Fifteen commodores signed a requirements letter asking for the program. His picture is simple: an aviator coming off a demanding flight might conduct their debrief in compression boots, a massage chair, or a sauna, the same way a quarterback who ran the triple option ends up in the training room.Trey Warren, PhD supplies the problem. After a hard landing, maintenance inspects the jet. Nobody inspects the crew. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Leavitt notes that an aviator's medical record at retirement runs about an inch thick, against three or four inches for everyone else. At Training Air Wing Six, the human performance team can keep an aviator flying and has no authority to down one.Brian "Ponch" Rivera hears representative design in Bernstein's platform-specific training, lines up plan, brief, execute, debrief against the flow cycle, and argues naval aviation already owns the playbook. Clips from Guido Bernacchi on chair flying, Kegan Gill on G and helmet load, Mark "Slider" Keller, and Cynthia Fluck.Also covered: alcohol as a readiness threat, sleep and crew rest, nutrition, spine preservation and Pilates, creatine, moving away from anti-inflammatories, and why psychedelic-assisted therapy deserves study.KEVIN BERNSTEIN, MDLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevinbernsteinmd/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/navysportsdoc/Stay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com

Send us Fan MailOriane Cohen spent four years under deep cover. She never approached her targets. She studied what they needed, made herself useful, and waited for them to call her.Cohen is a perception engineer and strategic intelligence advisor, founder of OC Strategic Advisory, and a former human intelligence operative and war correspondent. She came to the study of influence by running operations first and reading the literature afterward, and her verdict on the literature is blunt. The people writing about the grey zone have not been in it.She argues that cognitive warfare was assembled rather than invented, stitched together out of psychology, cybernetics, neuroscience and propaganda, then given a name scientific enough to institutionalize. Once a topic has budgets, departments and careers attached to it, it has to be real.Her original move goes further. Soviet reflexive control assumes a controller upstream of your decision. Cohen asks what happens when there is no controller and no intention, when thousands of actors with unrelated and sometimes hostile incentives converge on the same effect without coordinating. That, she argues, is the condition we now live in, and it is why conspiracy theories keep multiplying. They hand the brain a villain and a closure the real answer refuses to supply.Asked why two people in the same place experience different realities, she lists what builds a frame of reference: language, experience, family, trauma, religion, genetics. That is orientation, and she reaches it without ever mentioning John Boyd.Also: the four scales of the grey zone starting with the family, why she calls people like herself the bastards of the system, why she gives no client a technique before they can face their own mechanisms, and why the place you get your information is now the same place working to influence you.Recorded without Cohen on camera, at her request.Perception engineer and strategic intelligence advisor, OC Strategic AdvisoryThe Grey Zone: https://orianecohen.comOC Strategic Advisory: https://www.ocstrategic.comSubstack: https://orianecohen.substack.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/orianec/X: https://x.com/TheGreyZoneOCStay connectedRead the full posts: https://www.conceptualspiral.comWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcastListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-out/id1663685759Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fzIKBmVR7ARosQ3I52uNCFollow the show on X: https://x.com/NoWayOutcastFollow Ponch on X: https://x.com/PonchAGLXAGLX: https://www.aglx.com