Do those "Winning Here" posters and bar charts actually work?

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts sees me discuss with polling expert Steve Akehurst what has happened to Labour's July 2024 vote. We dive into the characteristics of those who voted for Starmer but are now flirting with Farage, as well as ask whether those folk are really the whole story. Show notes Getting to know ‘Reform curious Labour voters’ by Steve Akehurst. What would make Labour defectors more positive about Labour? The problems with polling averages. Labour's problem is a Michael Barber not a Morgan McSweeney one. Pollsters split over what's happened to Labour's 2024 vote: I have now done the crosstabs analysis we talk about on the show. The County Durham by-election mentioned on the show. Steve Akehurst on Bluesky. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. Downing Street street name sign: photo by PublicDomainPictures from Pixabay and used under the Pixabay license. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts features an interview with Emeritus Professor Jonathan Parry, whose new book, Liberalism, explores the history of liberalism as a political idea in Britain.  Parry emphasises that liberalism is best understood through the actions of politicians rather than the abstract theories of political intellectuals. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Liberalism by Jonathan Parry: Amazon, Bookshop.org or Waterstones. Professor Jonathan Parry. Previous podcast with Duncan Brack about Jo Grimond. Photo of Big Ben CC0 Public Domain. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts saw me team up with John Potter and the Lib Dem Pod team to discuss the local elections. How did they go for the Liberal Democrats and what lessons are there for the party? Show notes Some highlights from the local election results. Lib Dem Pod. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

John Potter of the Lib Dem Pod quizzed me about my first experiences of the House of Lords for our latest joint podcast. Show notes Lib Dem Pod. The Government Chief Whip's Ring Binder. Photograph © House of Lords 2024 / photography by Roger Harris. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts is another in the occasional series looking back at previous party leaders with Duncan Brack. This time we pick over Jeremy Thorpe's career - securing Britain's place in Europe, leading the Liberal Party to national prominence and then mired in scandal. What to make of it all? Show notes Our previous episode about Jo Grimond - www.markpack.org.uk/161656/jo-grimond-podcast/ Our interview of Jeremy Thorpe - www.markpack.org.uk/1486/jeremy-thorpe-interview/ Jeremy Thorpe and Jimi Hendrix - www.mediastorehouse.co.uk/memory-lane-prints/mirror/0100to0199-00163/jeremy-thorpe-jimi-hendrix-concert-jimi-hendrix-21541729.html Other photos of Jeremy Thorpe looking stylish - www.gettyimages.co.uk/search/2/image?family=editorial&phrase=jeremy%20thorpe&sort=oldest&recency=daterange&begindate=1960-01-01&enddate=1980-01-01 Peter Cook satirises the judge's summing up in the trial of Jeremy Thorpe - www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U Duncan Brack on Bluesky - bsky.app/profile/duncanbrack.bsky.social The Lib Dem History Group is at liberalhistory.org.uk Jeremy Thorpe by Michael Bloch is available from Amazon - amzn.to/41QQUf5 - Bookshop.org - uk.bookshop.org/a/588/9780349142203 - and Waterstones - tidd.ly/3DhN31o Theme tune by Hugo Lee: hugoleemusic.com New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts: www.markpack.org.uk/161708/how-to-listen-to-a-podcast Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes: www.markpack.org.uk/168491/most-popular-episodes-never-mind-the-bar-charts

Peter Kellner join sme to discuss a new report on what is going wrong with our politics, and the solutions. No surprise then that our conversation focused on populism, its causes and how liberals can defeat it. Show notes Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics, with polling from Deltapoll. The Challenge of Affluence: Self-Control and Well-Being in the United States and Britain since 1950 by Avner Offer (affiliate link). An example from the 1990s of failing to predict the political future. How incumbent governments did badly in elections in 2024. The three humped graph from the report. Liberal Democrat achievements in government. Lib Dem policymaking on AI. Peter Kellner's polling newsletter. The Week in Polls. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts saw Paula Surridge return to the show, talking about the impact of political values and of perceived competence on recent general elections. We got into some surprising similarities between Tony Blair and Nigel Farage, as well as ways in which Boris Johnson and Gordon Brown were the same. Take a listen to find out how on earth we ended up there. Show notes "Values in the Valence Election: Fragmentation and the 2024 General Election" by Paula Surridge. Also in blog form here. Why we made a joke about cease and desist letters. The graph which we mentioned. Paula Surridge on Bluesky and Substack. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts takes a look at a book that has made me rethink several things I thought I knew about the history of the Liberal Democrats and Liberals before them. It also contains some wonderfully acerbic photo captions and some not terribly kind words about David Lloyd George. It is a book from another David - David Laws - and is a history of Labour - Liberal (Democrat) relations over the last century. Show notes Serpents, Goats and Turkeys - a century of Liberal-Labour relations: Amazon, Waterstones, Bookshop.org* Who Killed Kitchener? The Life and Death of Britain's Most Famous War Minister: Amazon, Waterstones, Bookshop.org* How Lib Dems love the 1920s despite the electoral disasters for the Liberal Party. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. * Affiliate links that generate a commission for purchases made. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts takes a look at recent research into the impact of electoral reform on the stability of governments. Does PR mean less stable government? Listen to my discussion with the research's author Dylan Difford to find out. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes Strong and Stable: the most politically stable democracies use PR. The wild ride of elections in the 1920s. Dylan Difford on Bluesky. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.

Election campaigns often put significant effort into persuading voters that their candidate(s) could win. But does such campaigning really change people's expectations of who might win? And even if it people's views do change, does being seen as a more likely winner really help you win the election? Or in other words, are all those "winning here" posters and bar charts worth it? The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts welcomes back to the show Justin Fisher to discuss just that, courtesy of new research from himself and two colleagues. Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it. Show notes "Innocent Bystanders or the Forgotten Actors? The Role of Parties and Candidates in Building Electoral Campaign Momentum" by Justin Fisher, Ed Fieldhouse and David Cutts. A Logic of Expressive Choice by Alexander A. Schuessler (affiliate link). 101 Ways To Win An Election. The accuracy of MRPs. Justin Fisher on Twitter/X. Theme tune by Hugo Lee. Photo of "Winning Here" poster courtesy of the Lib Dems (CC BY-ND 2.0). New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts. Check out some of this show's most popular previous episodes. Enjoy the show? Spread the word Share the show's website, www.NeverMindTheBarCharts.com.