Multipolarity Dialogues: Anusar Farooqui (Policy Tensor) on why he changed his mind on Hormuz

Jensen Huang is a visionary. He started Nvidia in 1993 based on a bet: that PC gaming would be big, and that it would need specialised processing for 3D rendering. After building the company into a market leader, he made another huge bet in 2006: that the future would require parallel compute and that NVIDIA's GPUs would be ideal. Huang had taken Nvidia from a start up to a company worth $13 billion in 2006. From there, he took it to being worth $360 billion in 2022. In October it was worth $5 trillion. But then Jensen Huang had an affair. Apparently with a Chinese intelligence agency asset. Why was it leaked? Who gains? No evidence was provided to show the lady in question was indeed a Chinese intelligence asset. We don't mean there was no documentation or photographs or intel reports. There wasn't even an argument or explanation. No stated connections, no recruitment details. It was just asserted. He is about as irreplaceable as it gets with CEOs. Yet Nvidia itself might be irreplaceable for the entire AI growth story and US tech stack. As the entire US AI sector becomes bound up in the adventures of Jensen’s little feller, either they Huang together or Huang separately

This week, we touch down in a world on the edge of a crack-up. A steep tech selloff has exposed cracks in the AI investment bubble. With PIMCO dumping half its AI debt ahead of the midterms and companies like Intel shedding nearly 30% in a day, we ask: is this a politically timed market move, the beginning of a bear market, or both? Meanwhile, in Poland, Donald Tusk has attempted what looks very much like a judicial coup against the conservative president. As Europe's institutional capture rolls on one way, the finances of Europe continue to rot out. Where will gravity reassert itself? ** You can get monthly paywalled episodes of the podcast on Patreon - and additional access to our weekly paywalled premium articles if you sign up on Substack. Go on, treat yourself.

This week: a tale of two essays.Philip Pilkington is 'live from Belgrade' (almost), as he picks over the embers of the Serbian election. Is this really the picaresque rise of student protest it is made out to be? Or is the hand of Big Brussels somewhere in the background?Meanwhile, Andrew Collingwood is revisiting Europe's recent attack of hubris. Why aren't the Europeans going to Mars? The answer is to do with, well, half a dozen things.This is a pay week though. To get this episode in full, you'll have to tip us on Patreon or Substack. So do that! You can cancel any time.

A gutbuster blockbuster this week: Policy Tensor, our sometime Friend Of The Show , has been taking some serious flak online in recent weeks over his view that the Hormuz crisis is basically over.Here, he speaks with Andrew Collingwood to clarify his position: an initial US victory has morphed into a broader loss, as Iran has recalibrated its strategy and returned to the fight with new systems.This is a one-off two hour special edition, for the real heads.

Last time Albania blew up it was because the entire country had become embroiled in a Ponzi scheme, led by a gypsy soothsayer. That incident was generally classed as a Civil War, with breakaway militias staking out territory across the country, after about a fifth of the nation's supposed wealth evaporated overnight.The leader of the opposition at the time? Edi Rama. Now, thirty years on, Edi Rama is still a made man in Albanian politics, and has been happily passing the Premiership back and forth with his rightist rivals ever since.But almost overnight, it looks like this epochal politician may be gone for good. And Europe's most laggard state might be about to fully break with its post-Communist era - with all kinds of geopolitical implications.Beyond the manifestations in France, this week we're taking a look at the European riots, from the back of the bus. France blowing up is important. Albania and Spain going at the same time? It's all a function of how much steam the global pressure cooker is generating, says Philip Pilkington.***Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’.And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era.Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen.You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column.You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

We've been tracking the story for weeks, and now the authorities are waking up to it. The CFTC, the US commodities markets watchdog, is investigating oil futures bets that appeared to be timed perfectly to profit from President Trump's statements related to the Iran War. There is an obvious domestic political angle to the return of the Democrats to power after the midterms But there are longer term implications, too: breakdowns of price discovery, untrustworthy markets, rampant corruption among the US political elites — it all speaks to a Third World-isation of their political economy. Meanwhile, after chivalrously riding to the defence of Trump's targeted oil price, the Saudis are now taking a pasting at the hands of the Houthis. This puts the Saudi economy itself at risk: politically, it is unable to devalue the Riyal. But without sufficient oil exports, its trade account would have to be financed somehow: either by debt or selling Treasuries. It all signals coming political instability in the Kingdom. Is this most rock-solid of Gulf regimes finally on the slip-slide? All of which still leaves a question dangling: why did MBS make such a foolish decision to start this war? Was he given bad advice? Or was he, in fact, 'tricked', by a sophisticated intelligence operation? *** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

A record-breaking week down in Hormuz, where twelve oil tankers have been hit in a matter of days. Back on Wall Street, the cost of oil has pipped $100 a barrel. Last week, a third US aircraft carrier set sail for the region. It could mean that three carriers are in the region as early as the end of October.The narrative that the Strait is open and back to pre war oil flows is collapsing already. After we predicted much of this fakery in last week’s episode, this week we’re asking: why did the pundit class get it so wrong? The answer, says Philip Pilkington, is that it seems as though the analysts are mistaking the tool that Iran is using to achieve its strategic goals for the goal itself. Besides: even if we take the US story of the navy finding a way to pry open the Strait at face value, it's unsustainable. Now, as Andrew Collingwood points out, US Treasury Yields become the new front in this spiralling crisis. After all, the US has multiple points of financial vulnerability: with more tension being pumped into the system, there’s no telling where that chain of consequences could finally explode out. *** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

What can we know about the oil that gets through Hormuz? Turns out most of what we know filters through a single data point: a company called Kpler. Before the war, Kpler's numbers were solid. They combined transponder tracking with loading and unloading records, following each ship payload from port to port. But then the shadow fleet tankers switched their transponders off. No one reports their cargo any more. Now, Kpler has to fall back on satellite images. And those are redacted by the Pentagon... Now, says Philip Pilkington, we're all in the woods looking for Yetis - and we can't tell whether we've hit a real Sasquatch, or just a guy in a woollen suit. Brent was $70 to 80 when everyone agreed the Strait was shut. It's now above $90. In July, 'Oil Glut 1.0"' knocked about $30 off the price. But 'Glut 2.0' has only moved it by about $10 - well within ordinary weekly volatility. Does the market no longer believing the people pushing these stories?*** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.

Lately, European leaders seem panicked. By the beginning of July, the EU had begun acting in an increasingly assertive, confident way. On China – they announced new anti-dumping, anti-subsidy measures. On Ukraine, they pushed forward with plans to release even more materiel to the front. On the question of democracy and centralisation, they were happy to roll over the Romanians, and put their thumb on the scale in Hungary. Now it’s call time at the casino. The cards are being turned over – and once they lose their shirts, the continent’s leaders are still going to need the parking deposit to pay their way out of the building. A trade war with China. America stepping back. An increasingly unstable game of missile ping pong with Russia. An energy shock coming up the pike. Winter in a few weeks. Ursula & co now find themselves sitting amidst a perfect storm of bad bets. How will they ride this out? As the security situation weakens, will Europe revert to ‘securitisation’ to bolster its faltering power? ***Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since.Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column.You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreonSubstack

Donald Trump’s year of smashing things continues apace.Iran, Greenland, Canada… At some point, there is no more china in the shop for the bull to break. But not yet.With his comments that he wants to see a united Ireland, the President has jabbed the Special Relationship in the eye, kneed it in the balls, and burst its spleen. Breaking up the territorial integrity of an ally? Bad sport, old chap. He wanted to teach Britain a lesson, but as eighty years of diplomacy crumples in a heap, Trump may soon come to understand the difference between heavy leverage and making a sworn enemy. Or he may not. From the poodle Blair to the sticky end of Anthony Eden, British Prime Ministers have always yielded to the jesses of American power. In return, they have been allowed to ride shotgun in the global order. So what if that soft solicitousness went away? As Britain is loosed from the unipolar order, we’ll be assessing the full damage - from The Falkands to the Balkans, British interests are about to become extremely interesting. In a special edition, we’ll be spending the whole hour redrawing the map as it could be, if Greece and Rome go their own ways.***Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since.Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column.You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack.Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreonSubstack