Value manager Smead: 'This is one of the most overvalued markets in U.S. history'

Jay Jacobs, U.S. head of equity ETFs at BlackRock, says that the artificial-intelligence revolution has delivered massive spending, but not at levels that have been spent relative to gross domestic product, during other generational shifts like the introduction of the automobile. As a result, while he understands the bubble concerns, he expects AI to continue holding its place among BlackRock's global thematic trends. Also on that list of trends is geopolitical shifts, which were well underway before current events evolved into a war in Iran; because those trends were in place before today's developments, Jacobs says he doesn't expect markets or outlooks to be dramatically impacted by headline events. Jacobs also discusses the new iShares Staked Ethereum fund, a new development in the crypto space, which the firm is launching today. Wade Pfau,  professor of retirement income, at The American College of Financial Services, discusses his revised, third edition of "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success," which includes a new section covering sequence-of-inflation risk. Pfau says that concern -- which financial advisers mostly overlooked -- is particularly important now given growing concerns about sticky inflation, and that it may be as important for retirement savers as sequence-of-return risk, which Chuck typically says is his biggest retirement-savings worry. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into global turmoil this week, picking a diversified international fund as his ETF of the Week.

Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value fund, says that by nearly every indicator, the stock market is at valuation levels seldom seen in American history, with the Standard & Poor's 500 trading "at more than 220% of GDP, the most dangerous number, virtually, we have ever seen." That does not make him want to get out of the market, however, as he says in the Market Call that "the problem everybody's got is that most of the money is in the place that is likely to do the poorest over the next 10 years, because it has done the best the last 15 years, and that is our opportunity."    Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says that investors have good reason to be skittish right now because the market has dropped off of highs, but he doesn't expect things to get really bad so that further market drops are an opportunity to dig in and make tactical purchases. In The Big Interview, Cofrancesco talks about his concerns about inflation — which he calls "an insidious tax on the working class and the poor" — noting that if it stays higher for longer it can change retirement-spending trajectories that investors need to plan for.    Jennifer White, senior director, banking and payments intelligence at JD Power,  discusses the firm's recent report showing that the financial health of American consumers has reached a 12-month low. She notes that the firm is classifying more consumers as financially unhealthy, in large part due to the stubbornly high cost of consumer goods, noting that current events which could create a spike in oil prices and which threaten more inflation weren't yet factored into the numbers, making the outlook for consumers that much more troubling.

Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, entered 2026 expecting more volatility from the market and geo-politicla events, and while he "didn't have war in Iran on his dance card," he doesn't think it will change the outcomes all that much. He expects oil markets, for example, to stabilize once investors are certain that the Straits of Hormuz have re-opened, and he thinks there is plenty of opportunity where money has been flowing, into areas like artificial-intelligence infrastructure. All in all, he expects the stock market to celebrate a fourth birthday for the current bull market.    Veteran trader Peter Robbins discusses his book, "The Trader's Journey: Navigating the Path to Trading Success," covering how important it is for traders — even investors who want to do modest amounts of transactions with a small percentage of their holdings — to find the system that works for them and their lifestyle, and he talks about how technology has changed trading, but how the evolution in artificial intelligence hasn't made it so that individual investors can't find a working path to success.     Allison Hadley discusses a study she did for PartnerCentric.com study looking at AI shopping trends, where she found that nearly half of Americans tried AI-powered shopping last year, buying an average of more than $400 in eight transactions, and nearly two-third of shoppers expect to embrace AI when shopping this year. Despite that advancement, she notes that only 13% of Americans trust AI completely in its shopping recommendations with more than 80 % of consumers verifying its suggestions independently.

Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, says that "Volatility is just a reaction to something new, and something that has changed," which is why investors can expect a volatile market as it works through the start of the war in Iran. That said, he is not expecting the war to change much, other than increasing volatility, provided it does not last for a long stretch of time. Masturzo does think that current events will contribute to higher inflation, but he says that — whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not — a 3% inflation rate has become the norm and is likely to remain that way, in large part because the economy has shown that it can push through that level of inflation and continue growing.    Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, also digs in on inflation in "The Week That Is," noting that the upcoming inflation numbers will be the financial story of the week ahead, but also potentially for many consumers' financial lifetime, noting that if higher inflation becomes the norm, it dramatically changes the math for building a retirement-savings nestegg that can overcome longevity and purchasing-power risk. Marolia also discusses the early impacts of war in Iran on the market and how he expects it to play out in oil prices, as well as his sense on what's next for the Space X merger.    David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes a victory lap on some Danger Zone picks that have paid off, but where he believes there is significantly more trouble to come. It's a rogue's gallery of names like Affirm and Snap that all have fallen by at least 25% in 2026 and much further than that since their 52-week highs; Trainer notes that these stocks, and several others that he discusses, may look like bargains now that they have been beaten down, but warns that investors who buy now could be catching proverbial falling knives. Further, he says, there is no need to chase big losers in hopes of catching a turnaround.

Jim Welsh, the strategist behind the Macro Tides and Weekly Technical Review newsletters, says that the market's underlying strength won't stop a short, fast decline of as much as 7%, but it will provide strong resistance to a full-blown correction or bear market. Welsh notes that people fear that the economy will be severely disrupted because they remember oil shocks creating recessions in the 1970s, but oil prices have much less ability "to tip the economy into recession now," so he thinks the impact of current events will be less than most investors fear. Welsh has been forecasting a secular bear market — a long reversal of fortune for the stock market — for a few years now, and he still sees one coming, but he doesn't think that starts until "the next recession" creates a situation that stalls growth and disrupts the market. Amid all of those market worries and concerns, Ryan MacDonald, portfolio manager for the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund, says that private real estate is "uniquely boring, in a good way." MacDonald, who also serves as chief investment officer at Bluerock, says that three painful years of interest rate changes have driven values down to where they are attractive. "Entry point is the single biggest driver of future value for private real estate returns" and, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the market is now approaching valuation levels "not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis." Jaime Seale discusses the 2026 home renovation trends survey from Clever Real Estate, which showed that half of all homeowners say their home is facing necessary repairs or renovations that they can't afford given current economic and personal conditions. Nearly six in 10 homeowners have nothing saved for emergency repairs , which is particularly alarming because 85 percent of homeowners spent money last year on an unplanned repair.

Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs commodity-oriented ETFs — says that war in the Middle East will have mostly short- and medium-term impacts on markets, commodities and inflation, noting that "If you're not already long energy, you're taking a pretty big risk by buying it now." He says he will be watching fertilizer prices — because Iran is a large producer of urea, a key ingredient in fertilizers — expecting to see some inflationary pressures, but he thinks that, too, will pass quickly. Teucrium also runs crypto funds and Gilbertie also gives his take on how leading currencies will get through the current "crypto winter." With current events in the Middle East impacting his thinking, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a large-cap, low-volatility index fund for the "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund may not be the highest of flyers but it has a history of softening the blow of market downturns and troubles. Rod Yancy, founder of the Oath Money and Meaning Institute, discusses research which found that healthcare costs — premium, prescriptions, long-term care and more — are the top financial worry of American retirees entering 2026, but which also showed that a solid majority of retirees have a positive outlook this year despite current economic and geopolitical concerns. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about using artificial intelligence to improve personal portfolio results.

Louie Navellier, president of Navellier & Associates, says that while it is early to make any definitive statement on outcomes of military actions in the Middle East, he believes the energy industry narrowly and the domestic stock markets broadly are winning as a result of these actions. He makes the case that the dollar historically strengthens in times of conflicts, and that domestic markets enter these times much stronger than foreign markets; he's expecting the stock market to produce "a great year," though he is emphasizing gold stocks to get through and past the current headline events. Author Kim Lankford, author of "Medicare 101: A Crash Course in Federal Health Insurance," discusses the relationship consumers should have with the Medicare system, its future when it comes to financing and how to navigate the morass of rules and regulations to avoid a lifetime of higher premiums and health-care costs. Chuck and his wife Gail are nearing the age when they must make Medicare decisions and enroll in the program, so they are the real-life examples of the considerations consumers have to make. Plus, Allison Hadley, discusses a survey she did on worker happiness for Howdy.com, which found that more than half of American employees consider work to be "just a paycheck." Happiness at work involves many factors, Hadley said, noting that 93% of happy workers have clear ways to succeed on the job, compared to just 52% of unhappy workers, who feel they don't have much opportunity to advance personally or professionally.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the last six months of falling prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum represent a "normal crypto winter," the kind of downturn you see every few years, which typically lasts no longer than 11 months. He thinks the market is nearing the bottom of the cycle now, though he warns there could be more damage before any turnaround, especially with a market facing a lot of idiosyncratic events; still, he believes both crypto and global equity markets are poised for better days ahead. Hougan notes that cryptocurrency started as a "100% speculation" is evolving to where it truly becomes "as normal as gold," making it so solid that it's not really speculation at all; he says Bitcoin is roughly half way into that transition now. Long-term technical trader Mick Heyman, founder of Heyman Investment Counseling and author of "Mellow Your Money," sees the potential for the market to suffer a "shock event" — a one- or two-day decline of 10 to 15% — and a lot of volatility for the rest of this year, but he generally expects the market to push through that decline, which could get the Standard & Poor's 500 down to the 6,000 level, and then climb back higher. Heyman is not suggesting that investors trade out of the market to wait out the downturn; instead, he suggests diversifying and rebalancing, noting that "This is not a time to bet on energy or defense ...  This is not a time to bet for or against the Mag 7. ... This is a time to be sure you can handle that 10 or 15% drop." Plus, leading personal finance journalist Andrea Coombes discusses the end of the popular Direct File program from the IRS and how that is leaving consumers scrambling for free tax-filing help this year and where they can turn for help and red flags to watch for in the process.

Economist Howard Yaruss, the author of "Understandable Economics" and a professor at New York University, says that the market and the economy are strong on average, but that "chaos" — including the international tensions that escalated in Iran over the weekend, but also tariff and trade policies and more — should have investors leaning into gold. Yaruss notes that the market has seen so much speculative activity — including trillions for dollars invested into artificial intelligence infrastructure — so that when people see smaller-than-expected payback, the market and economy could go through the kind of demoralizing event that, historically, creates a recession.    Yaruss isn't the only one focused on chaos, as Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, talks in "The Week That Is' about "disruption" being the keyword for the week and beyond. He says that tensions in the Middle East have the potential to disrupt the oil market, noting how artificial intelligence has disrupted software stocks and, more broadly, technology companies and the market itself, but he also says that investors need to avoid disrupting their own portfolios by over-reacting to the headlines and the rapid-fire emotional swings.    Building on that theme of changes impacting the market's leading sector — and continuing a theme from recent Danger Zone segments, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that technology stocks outside of the Mag 5 are headed for trouble. And, yes, he calls it the "Mag 5" because he doesn't think two companies come close to still qualifying as "magnificent."    Plus, Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, discusses his recent coverage of Blue Owl's private credit meltdown and how the company's answers to questions on private credit may be a sign of more trouble ahead, not just for the BDC company – which has been hammered since it stopped redemptions in a non-traded BDC due to problems with some of its software lending – but for private credit markets generally. 

Today's show is all about digging into value, which often can be found in the scariest portions of the stock market. Of late, nothing has been scarier than the wash-out in software stocks, but in the Market Call, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says that the "massacre in the software space" has made it that the software sector is now a value priced sector for the first time in two decades. With a lot of software stocks with double-digit free cash flow yields, Peck says, making software "one of the most interesting areas of the market." The software companies troubles have spilled over into the realm of business-development companies, many of which have made loans to software companies that, in theory, could be troubled if artificial intelligence replaces the need for software as a service. Behind the theory that software companies will struggle to pay debts as artificial intelligence renders their products less useful and attractive, there are been some scary, well-publicized issues with a few BDCs. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, digs into the math that is impacting the lenders and BDCs in general. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, shows how the headlines could be creating values that make the industry more attractive, not less, for investors who understand and measure the risk.  Plus, Columbia University finance professor Ehsan Ehsani discusses his new book, "Finding Value in Numbers: The Essential Investing Toolkit to Win on Wall Street," which helps investors follow value-oriented strategies in all market conditions.