IBKR's Sosnick expects stock market's win streak to end in 2026

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, relies on his massive stores of data to look ahead for 2026, and he foresees no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility due to the interest-rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, and he selects five funds — including one that has been in the news recently for problems that raised its discount — that he's expecting big things from in the year ahead. Long-time business journalist Allan Sloan — a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award, business journalism's highest honor — returns to the show to discuss his recent piece for Barron's  in which he discussed his admiration for the way Michael and Susan Dell recently committed $6.25 billion of their own money to give 25 million kids $250 each to invest in mutual funds. But he doesn't like the mechanics of the new Trump accounts that are the vehicle for those young savers and he says their impact on changing lives will be much more limited than the hype is making it out to be. Plus, Chuck talks about avoiding mistakes that result in financial punishments if not completed by year's end: failing to take required minimum distributions and failing to spend down dollars set aside in Flexible Spending Accounts. He cites Vanguard data showing that the RMD problem is much bigger than many people expect, and he suggests ways that heatlh-care savers can legally spend down their accounts while there is still time.

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, is a market veteran who wasn't allowed to make annual forecasts until this year, and he's starting with an outlier, calling for the Standard & Poor's 500 to lose about 7% in 2026. Sosnick says a key issue for the market is investor expectations which are now so high that "it's hard to outpace that." Sosnick doesn't think the market is going in the tank, but he says that if investors see it struggle and lose some of their "buy-the-dips" nerve, it will create headwinds that will be hard to overcome. Travis Prentice, chief investment officer at Informed Momentum, brings his stylized investment methodology — which tries to find the stocks that are outperforming, but that also represent businesses that are improving — to the Market Call, and talks about where he is "finding the mo" now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year in exchange-traded funds, from the growth in the industry and the action in new funds to the emergence — thanks to new rules — of ETF share classes for established funds, a change that could be the defining story in the industry in 2026.  

Gene Peroni, founder and president at Peroni Portfolio Advisors, expects a "broad-based, well-balanced market advance" with a number of sectors and themes doing well in 2026. Peroni expects the small- and mid-cap advance that we have seen late this year to become full-blown leadership in the new year, but he's not down on large-caps either, putting a target of 53,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year, which would represent roughly a 10 percent gain. He is concerned about heightened volatility, but does not see any oversized drawdowns in the offing. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to put his forecasts from a year ago up to scrutiny. In a long career on Wall Street, Doll has become known for making 10 annual predictions — and he will unveil his forecasts for 2026 on the first show of the new year — and it looked in the middle of 2025 that his picks were all going to be on the money. The end of the year put a wrench into those plans, but he explains why and where things turned. Allison Hadley discusses a study done for Howdy.com based on a search that has been rising dramatically in popularity on Google, about "Is college worth it?" The survey found that holders of computer science degrees overwhelmingly felt that college was worth the expense, but a shrinking number of people think that degrees will be as valuable in the future, with many noting that artificial intelligence reduces the need for formal education. 

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, says 2026 will be a year in which valuations and fundamentals really matter, as the broad market will see more volatility and will have less momentum. After three straight years of gains around 20% annually, Jacobsen says investors will need to curb their enthusiasm and settle for gains that, at best, he thinks will only get to high single-digit levels. He says that valuations in large-cap stocks "have created too many vulnerabilities for us to really sleep well at night," which is why he favors international, small- and mid-cap stocks and value stocks for the year ahead. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the focus squarely on stock pickers in this week's Danger Zone, discussing the benefits — or more importantly the drawbacks, behind active management.  Plus, in "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, tells the tale of two tech stocks — one living through the best of times, another the worst of times — covers the evolving battle for content creators and distributors, and offers a holiday wish and suggestion for investors.

Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., sees "a lot of different parts of the U.S. economy that aren't working," and while the market and economy have overcome those concerns to this point — and may have the strength to keep that up — he is concerned about the potential for a fall and says investors need to be diversified properly to ride out the year ahead. "Diversification doesn't pay all the time," Schutte says, "but it often times makes up for all the costs that it has in periods where whatever you want to concentrate in actually doesn't work. And that's where I think diversification going forward is not only a risk management tool, but it's also a return enhancer." Schutte sees the market broadening out but delivering only modest gains, and says he is more concerned about recession than most experts, because many analysts and investors are so focused on the upside that they have missed warning signs. Alessandro Valentini, fundamental portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, says that the gains in foreign stock markets this year were not just about currency fluctuations and he believes there is more potential for growth in 2026 as concerns over tariffs continue to diminish, the dollar produces a smaller tailwind — or at least no resistance — and low valuations create more potential for upside. Richard Stone, chief executive officer for The Association of Investment Companies — the British equivalent to the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses differences in the activist investor cultures in the United States and Great Britain, including how "venture capital trusts" — the British equivalent of business-development companies — have tax advantages that make private credit investing much more palatable, but also why interval funds (known in England as "long-term asset funds") are a model that has stirred some controversy with investors.

Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says valuations are at levels reminiscent of bubble days in 1999 and the crash era of 1929, but that's not scaring him out of a mix of domestic and foreign stocks, because economic conditions can support further growth. He does worry about a policy mistake or other event which could trigger a downturn, but so long as it stays mild and doesn't "lurch" to where it's a 40% drop, he thinks investors should be comfortable riding it out. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes an actively managed small-cap fund — the sister to an international fund he highlighted earlier this year — his ETF of the Week.  Plus, Thomas Cole, Co-Founder, Distillate Capital and the Distillate US Fundamental Stability Value ETF, brings his unique take on value investing to the Market Call.

Daniel Morris, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, is expecting the economy and the stock market to continue to roll forward in 2026 but says he would like to see "not such a great year," because his primary worry for the year ahead is "too much of a good thing" that leads the economy to overheat. If that occurs, Morris said, higher inflation and consumers' response to it could change conditions quickly. Morris thinks growth can be solid without going too far, delivering modest growth with volatility due more to conditions like geopolitics than market sentiment. Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF — a fund-of-funds that invests in exchange-traded funds — discusses why his style favors momentum investing and gives his outlook on international stocks, gold, mega-caps and more in the Market Call. Erika Rasure, chief financial wellness advisor for Beyond Finance discusses the site's 2025 holiday survey which found that nearly two-thirds of Americans feel cultural pressure to overspend, even as they face more financial challenges. That has left that same cohort of the country unsure of just how much it is "safe" to spend during the holiday season.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says inflation is "stuck" at around 3% despite efforts to shrink it, leaving the Federal Reserve struggling with policy decisions as the Trump Administration positions current levels as acceptable. He's expecting the Fed to cut rates once in 2026, toward the middle of the year, and says the market seems accepting, or resigned, to that. As a result, however, he says this is not a time for "set it and forget it" investment styles in fixed income, noting that the opportunities are changing with the shape of the yield curve today. Jeffrey Bierman, chief strategist at Genesis Cog and chief market technician for TheoTrade.com, says the market has already seen its Santa Claus rally, from the end of Thanksgiving to the end of last week, leaving little room for upside into the end of the year and into 2026. For the new year, Bierman sees a protracted period of sideways markets before things turn positive for the end of the year, but he says that leaves plenty of valuation-driven opportunities for patient investors now. In the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president of Simply Safe Dividends, talks long-term dividend and income investing.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of fright, and what they are most afraid of is recession." But he says the current bull market not only doesn't need to be too worried about recession yet, he says that after celebrating its third birthday, it has gotten into the rarified air of a market that can keep running and producing positive results for longer. While he is not expecting a big, double-digit year in 2026 for the stock market, he says modest gains — tempered by heightened volatility and a downturn or two to overcome — are likely. In "The Danger Zone," David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits three past picks that outperformed as shorts but which then got the actual benefits of "stupid money risk" — something he discusses nearly every week on the show — as they were bought out by private equity firms in deals that bailed out some shareholders, but which says will not be enough to save bad businesses. Plus, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is back with "The Week That Is," digging further into the Warner Brothers Discovery buyout, discussing whether a selloff last week might be a sign that investors are getting weary and may bail out before Santa Claus comes for a rally, and looks at the potential for a SpaceX initial public offering in 2026, which might be the biggest IPO in history.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that history has shown that nearly every new Federal Reserve chairman does "something dumb" when they first get the job. With Jerome Powell soon to be out as Fed chair, Doty says the central bank is in a tricky place, where it could make a cut before the change and have the next chairman come in anxious to cut further, making a policy mistake that hurts the market, but creates buying opportunities for investors willing to ride it out. He's not the only one on today's show fearful of a Fed mistake, as that is the nightmare scenario for Dustin Reid, chief investment strategist at Mackenzie Investments, who says in the Big Interview that the economy has gotten to a point where further moves forward may have some negative impacts, hurting credit markets, raising more potential for a downturn and recession and, generally, not providing the classic economic boosts that frequently drive the markets higher.  In the "Talking Technicals" interview, Gregory Harmon, president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says he is expecting a small-cap rally to lead the market higher into year-end, and he says that the large-cap stocks — as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 — will follow suit, and that the question will be whether the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite comes along for the ride. "Technicals are all pointing higher, earnings are doing fantastic," Harmon says, noting that it would take "an unexpected crisis" to derail the underlying trends pointing "strongly to the upside" right now. Plus, Chuck discusses a visit to the bank to grab some cash that was met with an unusual question from a teller, a query that he says is a reason why consumers may want to have more face-to-face relationships with financial advisers of all stripes, rather than doing everything online.