The Statistical Illusion Inside Canada’s Housing Data

In 2025, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported nearly 260,000 housing starts, a figure that suggests real progress on the housing crisis. But a deeper look reveals a much more complicated and concerning reality.Most of the new supply is made up of small condos and apartments, not the family-sized homes people are looking for. Because housing starts are recorded late in the construction process, today’s data often reflects decisions made years ago, not current market conditions.Even more concerning, pre-construction sales are falling across multiple cities. This raises serious questions about what housing supply will look like in the years ahead.In this episode, we discuss:Why CMHC’s housing starts data can be misleadingThe difference between housing starts and real time market conditionsWhy Canada is building smaller homesThe composition effect changing housing trendsWhat falling pre construction sales signal for the futureChapters:00:00:00 Intro: The Housing Data Disconnect00:01:06 The Problem With CMHC Housing Starts Data00:04:06 How to Fix Misleading Housing Metrics00:05:14 The One-Size-Fits-All Data Problem00:05:49 Generational Shifts in Home Size00:07:05 Reality vs Data: Smaller Homes and Composition Effects00:08:14 The Collapse of Pre-Construction Sales00:09:12 Future Housing Market Outlook Research LinksCMHC Housing Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina MaddeauxProduced by Meredith MartinThis podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Looking for a family-sized apartment in Canada feels almost impossible. In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why they’re so rare in Canadian cities and why building regulations, zoning, and outdated fire safety rules make larger units nearly impossible to construct. Restrictive codes, high costs, and policy gaps mean that families often end up squeezed into spaces that don’t meet their needs or leave cities entirely.This shortage has shaped urban life, contributed to declining family formation in cities, and limited opportunities for young families. Are regulations really protecting people, or are they unintentionally blocking the housing Canadians need?In this episode, we discuss:Regulatory Barriers: How building codes and zoning prevent the creation of family-sized apartments.Comparisons with Europe: Why families in cities like Paris and Berlin live comfortably in apartments.Unintended Consequences: How rules meant to improve safety or quality actually reduce housing options.Policy and Change: What it would take to create a housing system that truly supports families.Chapters:00:00 Introduction00:42 Challenges Finding Family-Sized Rental Apartments01:54 How European Families Live in City Apartments02:46 Why European-Style Apartment Units Are Illegal Here03:40 North American Apartment Layouts Create Space Issues04:15 Unintended Consequences of Prescriptive Building Codes04:57 pop up https://youtu.be/TF63Xj_QtjM?si=YKMdLHIs8b_Nchgx05:03 pop up https://youtu.be/WpT0YDY8ejM?si=OIIEQm-y76TZlPEB06:05 Structural Problems in Housing Regulations08:07 Zoning Makes Low-Rise Family Apartments Difficult09:48 Optimism and Next Steps for Policy ChangeResearch/links:Why we can’t build family-sized apartments in North Americahttps://www.centerforbuilding.org/article/why-we-cant-buildWhy Single Stairways are Heaven for Homebuildinghttps://youtu.be/WpT0YDY8ejM?si=OIIEQm-y76TZlPEBHow Elevator Rules Cost Us Homeshttps://youtu.be/TF63Xj_QtjM?si=YKMdLHIs8b_NchgxNorth America's Elevator Problemhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or1_qVdekYM&t=1sAddressing the concerns around single-staircase apartmentshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozwkP9Zsi0YWhy We Don't Build More Apartments for Families | Odd Lotshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76IHpt6q9MEBroken Zoning: Why We Can’t Fix the Housing Crisis Without a Maphttps://youtu.be/yuAsjJsiuyQ?si=1DDXn4pIGUvSjmgCSingle Stair Buildings for San Francisco: The Key to Building Small Scale Infill Housinghttps://openscopestudio.com/single-stair-buildings-for-san-francisco-the-key-to-building-small-scale-infill-housing/Why Are Housing Costs So High? The Elevator Can Explain Why.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/opinion/elevator-construction-regulation-labor-immigration.htmlHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Is the Canadian dream officially broken? A recent headline claiming Canada is now poorer than Alabama sparked outrage and pearl-clutching from coast to coast. But beyond the headlines, what does the data actually say about our quality of life?In this episode of Classonomics, hosts Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux strip away the “economic hubris” and look at the cold, hard numbers. They explore why Canadians are so obsessed with “dunking on Americans” that we’ve ignored a decade of stagnation, a plummeting Human Development Index, and a housing crisis that has created two different Canadas.In this episode, we discuss:The Alabama Comparison: Is GDP per capita the right metric, or just a wake-up call?The Happiness Gap: Why Canadian seniors are some of the happiest in the world while young people (under 30) have plummeted to 58th globally.The Generational Wealth Divide: How the “floor” is falling out for Millennials and Gen Z while older homeowners remain insulated.The Resource Curse: Why Canada has the complacency of a resource-rich nation without actually reaping the wealth.The “Not-American” Trap: Why comparing ourselves only to the U.S. is holding our policy-makers back from real solutions found in countries like Denmark and New Zealand.“The inequality here isn’t rich versus poor. It’s old versus young.”Chapters:00:00 Is Canada Poorer Than Alabama? The Headline That Stung01:03 - Defining GDP per Capita02:54  Canada's Decline in Global Well-Being Rankings04:11 The Happiness Gap: Seniors vs. Gen Z & Millennials04:57 The “Household Wealth Irony: Why High Home Prices Are Deceptive05:34 A Tale of Two Countries: The Generational Wealth Split07:21 The "Floor" Argument: Why Alabama is More Stable for Youth09:47 The Stark Reality: Seniors are 9x Richer Than Their Grandchildren10:47 The Resource Curse: Complacency Without the Riches12:23 Canada’s Biggest Problem: The “At Least We’re Not American” Mindset15:24 Patriotism Through Criticism: Why We Must Admit There’s a ProblemResearch:Sabrina Maddeaux: Canada didn't become poorer than Alabama 'out of nowherehttps://nationalpost.com/opinion/canada-didnt-become-poorer-than-alabama-out-of-nowhereCanada’s global performance rankings are in freefallhttps://thehub.ca/2026/02/26/canadas-global-performance-rankings-are-in-freefall/How Canada became poorer than Alabamahttps://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-out-of-nowhere-canada-became-poorer-than-alabama-how-is-that-possible/World Happiness Report 2025https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2025/Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

For decades, housing planners have assumed that seniors would eventually downsize, freeing up family homes for the next generation. But that hasn’t happened.In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why most seniors choose to stay in their homes and why that decision is often perfectly rational. High moving costs, limited housing options, strong community ties, and government policies that encourage aging in place all make downsizing far less appealing than planners expected.This mistaken assumption has shaped housing forecasts, contributed to today’s housing shortage, and fueled tensions between generations. Are seniors really the problem, or did policymakers simply plan the housing system around the wrong idea?And if seniors aren’t moving, what does that mean for families trying to find space in cities where family-sized homes remain scarce?In this episode, we discuss:The Over-Housing Myth: Why the term does more harm than good.The Cost of Moving: Taxes, fees, and the "financial loser" trade-off of downsizing.Involuntary Over-Housing: What happens when seniors want to move but have nowhere to go.Policy Failure: How municipal assumptions about generational turnover are decades out of date.Chapters:00:00 Introduction01:00 The Irony of Planners Assuming Seniors Will Downsize2:32 Flawed Assumptions About Generational Turnover and Life Expectancy03:47 The Problematic Term "Overhoused"07:11 Defining "Involuntarily Overhoused"08:25 Underhousing Statistics in Toronto09:04 Zero Sum Mentality Created By Housing Shortage10:40 Density as a Solution for Seniors and Reducing Resentment12:33 The Financial Calculation: Why Moving Makes No Sense for Seniors14:00  Policies Actively Paying Seniors to Stay in Place16:09 Places where they have Implemented Better Policy Research/links:Right-Sizing Housing and Generational Turnoverhttps://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/planning-studies-initiatives/housing-to-2051/Perspectives on Growing Older in Canada: The 2025 NIA Ageing in Canada Survey – National Institute on Ageing, Toronto Metropolitan Universityhttps://niageing.ca/reports/perspectives-on-growing-older-in-canada-the-2025-nia-ageing-in-canada-survey/Canada’s Demographic Time Bomb: What Boom, Bust & Echo Got Right - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3VT7x1lrBsCity of Toronto – Garden Suites and Laneway Suiteshttps://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/planning-studies-initiatives/garden-suites/Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If Canada isn’t in a recession, why does it feel like one for so many Canadians?In this episode of Classonomics from The Missing Middle, hosts Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt dig into one of the biggest contradictions in today’s economy. On paper, everything looks great. GDP is growing. Corporate profits are strong. Stock markets are hitting record highs. Yet, for millions of Canadians, life feels harder than ever. Food bank usage has doubled since 2019. Young people can’t afford homes in cities where their parents once bought starter houses. And even full-time workers are struggling to make ends meet.Sabrina and Mike break down what’s really happening beneath those rosy headlines through the lens of the K-shaped economy, where wealthier Canadians continue to thrive while everyone else falls further behind. The top 20 percent are seeing record financial gains from stocks and investments, while the bottom 40 percent are sinking under housing costs, stagnant wages, and shrinking purchasing power.They explore how this divide is reshaping not only people’s bank accounts but also their trust in institutions, politics, and the very idea of upward mobility. When the data says the economy is strong but your grocery bill says otherwise, frustration and hopelessness grow, and faith in the system fades fast.Does Canada’s economy feel strong to you, or are you feeling left behind? Join the discussion in the comments.Chapters:00:00 – Intro01:32 – What is a “K-Shaped Economy”? (The Two-Way Split)02:54 – Why Younger Canadians Feel Locked Out of Growth04:10 – The Record-Breaking Income Gap in Canada05:18 – How the Richest Stay Ahead06:48 – The Parental Wealth trap08:24 – Hard Work vs. Inheritance09:56 – Shocking Stats on Food Bank Users11:47 – Why Canadians Feel Gaslit by GDP data15:21 – Restoring the Link Between Work and RewardRESEARCH LINKS:Statistics Canada - Distributions of household economic accounts, third quarter 2025The Hub - Canada's growing wealth gap in 7 chartsFood Banks Canada - HungerCount 2025Statistics Canada - Income and wealth gaps increased in 3rd quarter of 2025TD Economics - The Days Of Our Lives (K-shaped economy analysis)Parliamentary Budget Officer - Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in CanadaHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Is boycotting American products a patriotic duty, or a luxury belief most Canadians can’t afford?In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt unpack the growing generational divide in Canada, and why older Canadians are far more likely to boycott U.S. products, while younger Canadians are stuck navigating a brutal affordability crisis.After a winter storm destroyed his car, Mike shares why he chose a Canadian-assembled vehicle, and how that decision sparked a bigger question: have certain political stances become “luxury beliefs” that only financially secure Canadians can realistically uphold?The conversation digs into the tension between symbolic nationalism and economic reality, especially for Millennials and Gen Z who feel locked out of housing, squeezed by grocery prices, and shut out of opportunity.From grocery store boycotts to the future of Canada’s auto sector, this episode explores what it actually means to be a “good Canadian” in a time of rising costs, political strain, and shifting global alliances.Chapters:00:00 Introduction00:43 The Generational Divide on Canada-U.S. Relations02:03 Why Older Canadians View America Differently Than Gen Z03:04 Why Ethical Shopping is a Luxury04:02 Mike’s New Car: A Case Study in Buying Canadian06:21  Defining “Luxury Beliefs” in Economics09:23  Social Judgment and the Ethics of Travel10:21 Should Politicians Fight Trump?11:04 On Carney’s Speech in Davos12:47 Searching for Transformative Change in the Canadian EconomyResearch/links:Nanos Poll https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-2950-Bloomberg-Nov-Populated-Report-Tariffs-on-US-goods.pdfResearch Co Pollhttps://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Tables_Tariffs_CAN_05Jun2025.pdfLuxury Beliefshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_beliefSpecial Address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada | World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026https://youtu.be/flsgJe8mN-A?si=xJs3huF52ABU-SEZHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If $130,000 is the new poverty line… what does that make you?In this episode of Classonomics, we tackle the viral argument that the middle class isn’t struggling — it’s being mismeasured. On paper, incomes are up and unemployment is low. So why does it feel harder than ever to afford a home, raise kids, or even stand still? We break down the hidden costs of economic participation, from housing and childcare to smartphones and “technological coercion”. We also examine the rise of the two-income trap that quietly reset the price of middle-class life. Are millennials truly worse off than their parents? Is inflation data masking reality? And was the 80s and 90s middle class partly a sitcom illusion? If you’ve ever felt “middle class” in theory but squeezed in practice, this episode explains why.Chapters:0:00 – Introduction: Welcome to Classonomics0:39 –  Why 90s “Struggling” TV Families Look Wealthy Today02:03 – Is $130k the New Poverty Line?04:52 – Technological Coercion: From Luxury to Necessity09:08 – Why Inflation Stats are Misleading: Better vs. Cheaper11:03 – The Two-Income Trap: From Option to Obligation14:54 – The Nostalgia Gap: Are We Remembering the 80s Correctly?17:20 – The Reality of Generational Downward MobilityResearch links:Part 1: My Life Is a LieHow a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke Americahttps://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lieCory Doctorow https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittificationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_DoctorowHedonic adjustmentshttps://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135849519/hedonic-adjustment-how-to-measure-pleasureCredits:Mike Moffatt https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatthttps://bsky.app/profile/mikepmoffatt.bsky.socialHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Why is it so hard to make friends once you leave school? In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dive into the "Loneliness Epidemic" and the disappearing concept of the Third Place – those vital social hubs that aren't home (the first place) or work (the second place).From the 1980s mall culture and bowling alleys to the modern era of "convenience-first" coffee shops and endless doomscrolling, we explore why 60% of Canadians feel disconnected from their communities. We also break down the surprising 2025 StatCan data showing that young people (15–24) are significantly lonelier than seniors.In this episode, we discuss:The Zoning Crisis: Why it’s literally illegal to build a walkable pub or café in most North American suburbs.The Death of the Comfy Chair: How rising land costs forced businesses to prioritize drive-thrus over community "hangouts."Weak Social Ties: Why interacting with people outside your "bubble" is essential for democracy, your mental health, and your career.Practical Advice: Cara shares her (slightly terrifying) tips for meeting neighbours, and Mike discusses how rec sports saved his social life. Chapters:00:00 The Connectivity Paradox: Why we’re lonelier than ever01:40 Youth are lonelier than seniors03:10 The "Doom Scrolling" effect on community connection04:10 What is a "Third Place"? (And why you need one)05:20 The power of "Weak Social Ties"07:34 How Zoning & NIMBYism killed our local hangouts12:18 Can Digital Communities Replace Physical Ones?14:58 High Land Costs Make Everything Worse17:08 Practical Advice: How to Build Community Today20:41 The Senior Discount Problem: Why cities are ignoring youth isolation22:10 How to Push Past Rejection & Find Your PeopleResearch/links:Six in Ten Canadians Surveyed Have Little or No Sense of Community, New YMCA Research Revealshttps://www.ymcagta.org/news/Six-in-Ten-Canadians-Surveyed-Have-Little-or-No-Sense-of-CommunityChurch Closures and the Loss of Community Social Capitalhttps://carleton.ca/panl/wp-content/uploads/Church-Closures-and-the-Loss-of-Community-Social-Capital-By-Don-McRae-March-2023.pdfWhere Have All the Great, Good Places Gone?: The Decline of the “Third Place”https://www.mironline.ca/where-have-all-the-great-good-places-gone-the-decline-of-the-third-place/Third places, true citizen spaceshttps://courier.unesco.org/en/articles/third-places-true-citizen-spacesBrands should provide “third places” to help Canadians feel connected: https://strategyonline.ca/2024/11/11/citizen-relations-report-third-places/The Hidden Health Crisis: Understanding Loneliness in Canadahttps://blog.theralist.ca/the-hidden-health-crisis-understanding-loneliness-in-canada/Why your ‘weak-tie’ friendships may mean more than you thinkhttps://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200701-why-your-weak-tie-friendships-may-mean-more-than-you-thinkHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

The unemployment rate says everything is fine. So why does finding a job feel impossible?Canada has added nearly 200,000 jobs and unemployment sits around 6.5%. On paper, that’s a “normal” economy. But talk to young workers, or anyone trying to switch jobs, and you’ll hear a very different story: hundreds of applications, zero callbacks, and months of silence.In this episode of Classonomics, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down the hidden story behind the headlines. They explain why low unemployment can mask a frozen job market — one with fewer layoffs, fewer hires, and far fewer opportunities for people trying to get in.If you’re a recent grad, stuck in your career, or wondering why the economy feels worse than the data suggests, this episode is for you.Tell us in the comments: How long has your job search taken? Has it been harder than expected?Chapters:00:00 – Why Finding a Job in Canada Feels Impossible Right Now01:57 – Beyond Unemployment: The Hidden Labour Market Indicators05:28 – Why Employers Have the Upper Hand Right Now06:12 – Global Uncertainty, Trade Tensions & Hiring Freezes07:26 – The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Equilibrium Explained10:21 – How Over-Regulation Stifles Economic Growth13:06 – The Systemic Impact of Locking Out a Generation14:20 – The Housing Theory of EverythingResearch:Consulting the Magic 8 Ball of Canada’s Job MarketThe Job Market Is Frozen:Unemployment is low, but workers aren’t quitting and businesses aren’t hiring. What’s going on?Canada’s shifting labour market: Recalibrating ‘breakeven employment’Glassdoor Worklife Trends 2025Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000) 1, 2, 3, 4Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Does having a baby mean you're officially "car-dependent"? In this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Reece Martin, of @RMTrasit, tackle the reality of navigating Canadian cities with kids. While many parents are told that a private vehicle is the only safe or convenient way to get around, Cara and Reece explore why our transit systems often fail families – and how we can fix them.From the "elevator roulette" at subway stations to the hidden costs of car ownership, we’re breaking down the barriers to urban parenting.Have you ever been "trapped" at a subway station with a stroller or in a wheelchair? Let us know in the comments.Chapters:0:00 Introduction00:44  The "Car Trap": Why parents feel forced to drive01:38  Canadian Transit vs. the US: How do we actually rank?03:22 The Stroller Struggle: Accessibility "on paper" vs. reality08:47 A Tale of Two Cities: Toronto, Montreal, and the elevator gap13:11 Reece on the GoTrain accessibility car15:50 The Hidden Cost: Is owning a car costing you a second child?19:45 Policy solutions for family friendly transit25:02 Why free transit for kids is a game changer28:15 The problem with busses29:48 Teens and Transit: How free fares encourages a healthier lifestyle33:15  Making cities livable for the next generationResearch/links:Studies on impact on free fares on active transportation for teenshttps://www.getonthebus.ca/resourcesTransit Use by Children and Adolescents: An Overlooked Source of and Opportunity for Physical Activity? - PMChttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5502534/Engaging students to increase public transit ridership A guide for using city–school partnership to inspire youth to choose sustainable transportation.https://greenmunicipalfund.ca/sites/default/files/documents/resources/guide/guidebook-engaging-students-to-increase-public-transit-ridership-gmf.pdfHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.