Regression to the Mean

When someone wrongs you, it's usually not because they want to hurt you -- it's because they were being stupid. At least, that's the premise of "Hanlon's Razor", and your hosts unpack this mental model in episode ten of "Men Tell Models".

In this episode, Arvind and Rohit talk about why the simplest explanation for something is the most likely explanation — but why it's equally important not to assume it's always the right explanation. Occam's Razor: it's not your grandpappy's razor!

In Men Tell Models, we talk a lot about modeling different parts of life as a system. But what happens if a particular part of that system goes to zero? And what can we do to prepare for this? Arvind and Rohit talk about multiplying by zero, personal and professional implications, and experiment with speaking their metadata out loud. This is the end of the summary.

What should our response be when things go really well... or, not so well? In this episode, Arvind and Rohit discuss "Regression to the Mean", how it can help us focus on what we really control (our efforts, and our baseline) and why Rohit might want to not give up on his bowling career.

The internet has fundamentally disrupted the way we do business. But how, exactly? And what does this have to with Black Holes and Encanto? Well, not much, but Arvind and Rohit manage to find a connection along the way while unpacking Ben Thompson's outstanding "Aggregation Theory" of Internet commerce.

It's natural to think about the consequences of our decisions. But what happens next? Can thinking about the second-order consequences of our decisions help us make better ones — and how do we know when we're overthinking things? Arvind and Rohit talk about their two main takeaways from the mental model of Second-Order Effects, and why, sometimes, it's better just to order the damn lasagna.

Whether it's struggling to change a corporate strategy, or struggling to get out of bed, inertia has an impact on so many facets of our experience. In this episode, Arvind and Rohit unpack inertia as a mental model, and talk about how examining its key variables can help improve our lives. Arvind also makes the case for showering half-way before bedtime.

From the v-shape pattern of birds in flight to human consciousness itself, emergence helps us understand how, sometimes, the whole is much more than the sum of its parts.

How do you know what you know? And how do you know what you don't know? In their second episode of "Men Tell Models", Arvind and Rohit explore the idea of "Circles of Competence", and share how understanding just what we know (and don't) can help with making better decisions.

Welcome to "Men Tell Models"! In our first episode, we (Arvind and Rohit) introduce our new show where we'll unpack Farnam Street's "The Great Mental Models" and talk about how we apply these in our own lives. We start with the first chapter of Volume 1, "The Map is not the Territory".