Who are the winners and losers of shipping’s decarbonised regulatory future?

Amid all of the seemingly endless ups and downs that have dominated 2025 so far, dry bulk, as it always does, just keeps on going, moving some of the world’s most important commodities across our oceans. At the end of last year, the almost unanimous prediction for 2025 was that the dry bulk market wasn’t set for its best year ever. Market fundamentals looked pretty weak, especially from China, which accounts for so much of bulk demand. Have things changed drastically since those predictions were made more than six months ago? So much has happened since the turn of the year after all, with the speed of policy from the White House in the early months of the year almost unprecedented. Joining editor-in-chief Richard Meade this week are: Joshua Minchin, senior reporter, Lloyd’s List Greg Miller, senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

This episode of The Shipping Podcast is brought to you by Veson AI can provide valuable decision-making support in maritime supply chain management and it is not just a dry academic exercise: in this podcast we hear that we should play with it and have some fun along the way Eric Christofferson is Chief Product Officer at Veson Nautical, which is a provider of maritime data and freight management solutions to support global commerce. His experience with AI outside maritime reveal interesting insights in how to approach AI and get the most from it. Eric Christofferson shares his perspective on AI’s role in the maritime industry coming from the fintech industry. There are some interesting differences between them, in particular its management of data standards and information. In this podcast, he discusses how shipping relies heavily on what he calls traditional tools, such as emails and messaging services, saying that managers have to “mine that information and … structure the unstructured data.” In fintech, data is more organised. Algorithms can execute trades based on such parameters as price points and market movements but shipping has not yet reached a level of standardisation that would allow AI to make equivalent decisions. “In this industry, I haven’t seen a clean enough data set for that type of guidance to be given,” Mr Christofferson says. But in this podcast, he is confident that solutions that Veson and others provide offer “really compelling workflows and solutions” that can address this situation, bringing together data from disparate and unstructured sources. He explores whether decisions are better if they are supported by AI and believes it can play an important role in decision making. During the podcast, he offers some practical advice on getting the best out of AI-based decisions, saying that it is important to decide where in a workflow they will add value. This is how Veson approaches its work with clients and within its own organisation when introducing AI across its portfolio of solutions. He also shares why it’s important to avoid “trying to ‘AI’ everything”, why not everything is suitable for an AI solution and how to make using AI fun in an organisation. He tells the podcast that it is important to build trust for AI-generated decisions, describing that process in a similar way to developing a human relationship; “you can trust it, but you verify it,” he says. And because it can streamline data input and communication between systems, it enables people to focus on other decision-making priorities and allows them “to connect with each other at a human level” he says.

This episode of the Lloyd's List Podcast was brought to you by Veson. Visit veson.com for more information. Every year, Lloyd’s List publishes two sets of market outlooks. One at the end of the year and one mid-way through. Disruption and uncertainty have been synonymous with container shipping in recent years. So far, 2025 has seen more of the same and the only certainty at this stage is that this is unlikely to change through to December. After last week’s episode brought you the outlook for the container market, this week we’re focussing on the tanker sector, with Lloyd’s List senior reporter Greg Miller. Greg reflects on the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and examines their impact on the tanker market, while also offering a warning to those who think disruption can only be a good thing for the sector…

EVERY year, Lloyd’s List publishes two sets of markets outlooks. One at the end of the year and one mid-way through. Disruption and uncertainty have been synonymous with container shipping in recent years. So far, 2025 has seen more of the same — and, well, the only certainty at this stage is that this is unlikely to change through to December. US trade policies under Trump 2.0 have dominated proceedings in the opening months of the year, with the industry, like everyone else, second-guessing the president and his administration’s next move in an unpredictable game of yo-yo tariffs being played out on the global stage. This week’s episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast takes a look at the container sector’s year so far in 2025, and offers some insight into what the next six months might hold for the market amid tariff uncertainty and increasing geopolitical tensions. Joining Joshua Minchin on this week ‘s episode are: Linton Nightingale, Lloyd’s List deputy editor Neil Dekker, Infospectrum senior analyst

This episode of the Lloyd's List Podcast was brought to you by Wirana - visit www.wirana.com/ for more information THERE are tens of thousands of shipowners in the world, but only a handful of them can be properly be classified as major players. Much of the content of Lloyd’s List naturally focuses on the MSCs, Frontlines and Maersk’s of this world, whose fleet lists run to the hundreds. When they want to pick up some newbuildings or even to buy one of their rivals, they have few problems finding the finance. Banks refer to them as tier one clients and actively court their business, on preferential terms. But the mean average owner is probably a family-owned businesses with maybe half a dozen ships and the median average operator will have perhaps a few dozen. These kinds of guys are the backbone of our industry. Historically, they didn’t have too hard a time of time it either. Until the early years of this century, many European banks were up to their neck in ship finance and indeed, some were devoted to it entirely. This was the era of what was known as relationship banking. Shipping bankers actually understood shipping, including its cyclical nature. Owners with a sensible business plan, maybe backed by long-term charter employment, and a decent equity stake could usually negotiate a sustainable mortgage. This lost age disappeared with the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, when European banks largely quit the scene. In the following decade, private equity moved in and made a small fortune, but only by starting with a large one. Chinese leasing deals became the preferred option – and sometimes the only option - for many. But their S&P choices face increasing constraints. New environmental regulations are coming in thick and fast, and there is still no agreement on what alternative fuels will be standard, or even available at all, a few years from now. Politics is always the wild card, and Trump’s decision to introduce hefty port fees on tonnage build in China or legally owned by Chinese lessors will have blindsided many. So if your surname is not Aponte or Fredriksen, how the heck do you make rational S&P decisions? Joining law and insurance editor David Osler this week are: Dagfinn Lunde, co-founder eshipfinance.com Kavita Shah, partner, Watson, Farley and Williams Costas Delaportas, chief executive, DryDel Shipping

Who are the winners and losers of shipping’s decarbonised regulatory future? by Lloyd's List

What does China’s unassailable lead in terms of naval power, the wording of recent US statutes and the adaptability of shipping, all have to do with how a chief financial officer eats their breakfast? It’s all about how shipping perceives risk and uncertainty right now. Uncertainty has dominated the shipping industry in the past months. But this narrative that shipowners are paralysed by the geopolitical volatility is only part of the story. The global economy is at a crossroads. We are entering an era of superpower rivalry between the US and China that will fundamentally upend established trading assumptions and fragment shipping down geopolitical lines. Now, depending on who you are talking to, the response to that uncertainty results in either a barely concealed fist-bump of joy as they mentally run through the profitable opportunities ahead, or near term paralysis as they conclude that there is no value in strategic investment in the face of such unknowable odds. And that’s because this isn’t just the long -term disintegration of a rules-based order that we are talking about, although that is part of it. Near term that uncertainty is created by the fact that it is now security not economics that is driving the bus when it comes to US decision making, and that’s confusing everyone. Agility is the new currency for shipping. We have to adapt to all these challenges – shipping’s bullish elite told us. Volatility is the lifeblood of profitable shipping and certainty has never been a prerequisite for making decisions. So, why complain about exogenous shocks now? On stage, the message was defiant: shipowners paralysed by the geopolitical swings risk losing out. Off stage, their commitment to specific questions of progress and investment was generally more hesitant. But they still need to make decisions – and that’s the focus of this week’s podcast. Joining Richard this week on the podcast are: Øystein Tunsjø, Professor of International Relations, Head of Security in Asia Program, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Norwegian Defence University College Brian Maloney, Partner, Seward & Kissel Annicken Kildahl, CFO, Grieg Maritime Group Hing Chao, Executive Chairman, Wah Kwong Maritime Transport

Efficiency is good business. Forget any lofty notions of environmental altruism for the moment. Burning less fuel, emitting less CO2 that just makes sense financially speaking. Except, that in shipping, inefficiency can often bring opportunity. Arbitrage and trading optionality is often a bigger, more profitable pull away from strict notions of carbon reduction. Emissions regulation is about compliance not profit. And that has generally speaking been the attitude in shipping while we have been talking conceptually. But carbon pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat — it’s already impacting shipping and trading, even if the majority of shipping is either not ready or in the case of 60% of you missed the first regulatory hurdle of submitting verified emissions reports. The European Union is leading the charge, with the EU Emission Trading System and FuelEU Maritime adding an estimated $6.1bn to industry costs in 2025 alone. The IMO’s Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (GFI) measure is set to join the mix from 2028, driving up costs even further. Shipowners and charterers could be staring down a combined carbon bill approaching $50bn by 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario. These surging costs will ripple through supply chains, driving up freight rates, influencing fuel choices, and potentially reshaping global trade patterns. Carbon pricing has moved from a regulatory abstraction to an immediate financial reality and that’s what we are talking about in this edition of the Lloyd’s List podcast. We have two speakers who offer an instructive view on what is, and isn’t, happening right now. Sigmund Kyvik is the CEO of Siglar Carbon – a data-led business that offers emissions insights that cut carbon and costs. Robert Hvide Macleod is a former chief executive of tanker giant Frontline, but he’s also an active investor in Siglar and is someone who has spotted the financial opportunity in managing carbon efficiency.

The global shipping fleet is getting older, but it is also getting more dangerous. As freight rates surged in a tonne-miles driven market, many shipowners delayed scrapping older vessels, which put seafarers, cargo and the environment at greater risk. The industry must now act decisively to improve safety standards amid an ageing fleet, argues the class society DNV who have used Lloyd’s List Intelligence casualty data to analyse the trends. Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade sat down with Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime, on the sidelines of the Nor-Shipping event being held in Oslo this week to discuss what this means and what can be done about it

IN a market where free trade is under threat and geopolitical tensions are escalating, decisions get deferred, investment gets scaled back and doing nothing starts being passed off as pragmatic stewardship. There’s no value in making long-term decisions right now. Or is there? For this week’s podcast we want you to put your cynicism on hold and let our editor-in-chief Richard Meade pitch you the optimist’s view. While other industries’ green zeal has withered, shipping has found itself in the unexpected, and slightly uncomfortable position of being a climate leader, rather than a laggard. Even with some of the key details (reward factors, green classifications) still far off, there is an optimist case to assert that shipping actually now has a clear direction of travel when it comes to decarbonisation investment. If the IMO’s target of a 65% cut in fuel GHG intensity by 2040 is to be achieved, a fuel revolution is the only option. The rules don’t yet tell us how to do that. But cutting carbon intensity by that much is only really possible with a few ways, which brings us to synthetic, green e-fuels. A longer, slower transition leaves time to solve practical problems, and to explore technologies like nuclear. Shipowners have time to work out with some degree of confidence how far they can move ahead with what they have now. They know LNG-fuelled vessels look good in the early years, but ammonia-fuelled orders look better beyond 2028. They know they’ll have to wait longer for that fuel, since MEPC83 did a poor job of incentivising its production. But that’s where the optimism and faith in a long horizon comes in. The necessary greenwashing backlash injected some realism into shipping’s sustainability debate and MEPC83 offered the beginnings of some tangible certainties, with the promise of more to come. There is much yet to be clarified, but the case for optimism is worth listening to – and that’s what we are offering this week with the resolutely rosey thinkers at the Global Maritime Forum. On this week’s edition of the Lloyd’s List Podcast you will hear: • Johannah Christensen, CEO, Global Maritime Forum • Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation, Global Maritime Forum • Stephen Fewster, Treasurer, Poseidon Principles and Global Lead Shipping Finance at ING Bank