Discipline vs Mania: Seth Cogswell on 1999 Parallels, AI Excess, and Why Risk Is Being Ignored

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Alex Shahidi, Managing Partner and Co-Chief Investment Officer at Evoke Advisors, to break down why markets heading into 2026 are forcing investors to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction.With inflation remaining sticky, political uncertainty rising, and stocks and bonds often moving together during inflation shocks, Alex explains why the traditional 60/40 framework falls short and what true diversification actually looks like in an environment defined by wide-ranging macro outcomes.Throughout the conversation, we discuss how his work around balanced asset allocation and risk parity has evolved from theory into practice, including the thinking behind the RPAR ETFs available at RPAR Risk Parity ETF. , the broader research and conversations he hosts each week on Insightful Investor , and how this framework is implemented in real client portfolios at Evoke Advisors . Alex also shares perspectives he’s written about through his Forbes Finance Council contributions and the ideas explored more deeply in his book: Risk Parity: How to Invest for All Market Environments and Balanced Asset Allocation: How to Profit in Any Economic Climate.In this episode:– Why inflation uncertainty changes how diversification actually works– How stocks and bonds can fail at the same time during inflation shocks– What investors misunderstand about risk parity and balance– Why assets like commodities and gold need meaningful weight to matter– How to think about portfolio construction when outcomes are highly uncertainLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to break down why today’s market feels increasingly speculative and why disciplined investing is being left behind.From meme-style factor leadership and zombie-company outperformance to extreme concentration and AI spending risk, Cogswell explains why chasing returns tends to end the same way and how investors can position for when the cycle turns.In this episode:– Why the last eight months looked like a speculative outlier– How high volatility and low quality leadership distorts portfolios– How AI spending can flip from narrative to accountability– Where discipline fits when clients still want growth exposureLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#stockmarket #MarketBubble #AI #RiskManagement #PortfolioConstruction #Macro #InvestingStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Kaitlyn Walsh, Wealth Advisor and Equity Analyst, to break down what employees actually own when they receive stock options and why misunderstanding equity compensation can lead to costly mistakes.From incentive stock options and vesting schedules to fair market value, AMT exposure, and record-keeping errors, Walsh explains the decisions that matter most before, during, and after an equity grant and why timing, taxes, and planning can make or break outcomes.In this episode:– Why stock options are not the same as owning shares– How strike price and fair market value really work– The biggest vesting and exercise mistakes employees make– When stock options can trigger unexpected tax bills– Why poor record keeping can cost real money years laterLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#StockOptions #Equity #PersonalFinance #WealthPlanning #TaxPlanning #FinancialEducation #Investing #MoneyStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Melanie Schafer sits down with Michael Mo, CEO of KULR Technology Group (NYSE: KULR), to explore why energy reliability is emerging as the critical constraint behind AI, robotics, drones, telecom infrastructure, and next-generation data centers.Fresh off CES and following KULR’s newly announced $30M telecom battery supply agreement, Mo explains how high-power, high-safety battery systems are becoming mission-critical as electrification accelerates. From NASA-proven thermal technologies to lithium-ion replacements for legacy lead-acid systems, KULR is positioning itself at the center of multiple multi-year secular growth trends.The conversation covers AI data center power resilience, UAV and drone electrification, telecom backup systems, and why battery safety, reliability, and domestic supply chains matter more than ever as power demand explodes.In this episode:– Why power—not chips—may be the next AI bottleneck– KULR’s NASA-derived battery safety and thermal technologies– The Cooler One platform and growth across drones, robotics, and aviation– Replacing lead-acid batteries in telecom with lithium-based solutions– Energy-as-a-Service and reducing total cost of ownership– AI data center battery buffers and GPU-level power protection– Scaling execution with a debt-free balance sheet and strong cash positionLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the leaders shaping markets at the intersection of technology, energy, and investing. Subscribe for insights that cut through the noise.#AIInfrastructure #EnergyStorage #BatteryTechnology #Drones #Telecom #DataCenters #Electrification #KULR #MarketOutlook #CleanEnergy #InvestingStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Hervé Van Caloen**, Owner and Portfolio Manager at **Mercator Investment Management, to break down why global markets outside the United States are entering a powerful new phase of leadership.From Japan’s aggressive stimulus and corporate reform push to structural dominance in semiconductors, defense technology, space, and energy infrastructure, Van Caloen explains how capital is rotating toward regions and industries aligned with long-term geopolitical and economic realities.In this episode:– Why Japan’s stock market continues to hit record highs– How semiconductors have become global oligopolies with pricing power– Why defense and space spending are entering a multi-year upcycle– How infrastructure and electricity demand are driven by AI growth– Why global diversification may matter more as U.S. valuations stretchLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

Artificial intelligence is driving one of the largest capital spending cycles in market history, yet most AI investment strategies focus on surface level exposure rather than true innovation. In this Lead-Lag Deep Dive, Melanie Schaeffer sits down with Aram Babikian of Xtrackers to examine how AI investing is evolving and why research intensity and patent activity may matter more than headlines.The discussion breaks down the structure behind XAIX, an AI focused ETF designed around companies that are actively building, protecting, and monetizing innovation. Babikian explains how patent filings and R and D spending act as forward looking signals, why unexpected companies like major banks appear in AI portfolios, and how this approach differs from more crowded thematic strategies.They also explore how XAIX fits alongside broader technology exposure, the tradeoffs between concentration and diversification, and how advisors think about incorporating AI into portfolios amid volatility, regulation, and rapid technological change.In this episode:Why AI investing is not the same as buying tech stocksHow patent activity and R and D spending identify true innovatorsWhy non tech companies can be major AI beneficiariesHow XAIX differs from broader thematic AI exposureHow investors think about sizing AI allocations responsiblyLead-Lag Deep Dive is a weekly series that breaks down the forces reshaping global markets. Each episode goes beneath the surface of one critical theme, examining how strategies are built, where risks hide, and what matters most for investors across cycles and asset sizes. Subscribe for research-driven insight beyond the noise.#AI #ArtificialIntelligence #ThematicInvesting #ETFS  #PortfolioStrategy #Finance #MacroTrendsStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Luke Lloyd, President and CEO of Lloyd Financial Group, for a candid conversation on markets, mindset, and the economic forces shaping investor behavior.From why retirement is not a finish line but a reinvention, to how AI, government liquidity, and bailouts are reshaping wealth outcomes, Lloyd explains why investors must adapt both financially and psychologically to a system increasingly driven by intervention rather than pure capitalism.In this episode:– Why retirement is about purpose, not an age or account balance– How AI accelerates the wealth divide and changes labor markets– Why government bailouts now shape market cycles– The role of liquidity in driving risk, speculation, and asset prices– Why owning assets matters more than timing marketsLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise#LeadLagLive #StockMarket #AI #LukeLloyd #FederalReserve  #Psychology #MarketOutlook #Macro #RetirementPlanningStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Aram Babikian, Head of Xtrackers Wealth at DWS, to explore how rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping technology investing and why national security has become a core investment lens.From US–China decoupling and critical technologies to AI, quantum computing, and supply-chain risk, Babikian explains how investors can gain exposure to future-facing innovation while actively de-risking portfolios from geopolitical entanglements.In this episode:– What “critical technologies” mean for investors– How US–China competition is changing capital flows– Why geopolitical risk now matters in portfolio construction– How the CRTC ETF screens for national security alignment– Why some mega-cap tech names are excluded—and others included– How to think about strategic tech as a core allocationLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #AIInvesting #TechnologyStocks #ETFInvesting #MarketRisk #PortfolioStrategy #CriticalTechnologiesStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Gayed sits down with Dodd Kittsley, Co-CIO of Davis Advisors, to discuss why fundamental research and selectivity are becoming increasingly critical as markets transition into a period of normalized interest rates.From Davis Advisors’ 60-year history of “eating their own cooking” to the evolution of active equity ETFs, Kittsley explains how a high-conviction, benchmark-agnostic investment philosophy can help investors compound capital over the long term—especially in a richly valued market.From the “time arbitrage” embedded in their discipline to their views on AI-driven growth and undervalued financials, Kittsley outlines why what investors don’t own may matter just as much as what they do in the next market cycle.In this episode:– Why Davis Advisors pioneered the active equity ETF space nearly a decade ago– The benefits of high-conviction, concentrated portfolios that ignore benchmarks– How “picks and mortars” technology is reshaping financials like Capital One– Valuation discipline in an overvalued market and the risks of unsustainable dividends– The “time arbitrage” advantage of long-term ownership and owner-operator focusLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#ActiveETFs #FundamentalInvesting #MarketOutlook #Equities #Valuation #LongTermInvesting #PortfolioStrategyStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Gayed sits down with Jay Hatfield, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Infrastructure Capital, to discuss how investors should approach fixed income and equity income strategies for 2026 as markets adapt to a changing interest rate environment.From Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation trends to credit spreads, preferreds, and equity sector rotation, Hatfield explains why income investors may need to rethink traditional allocations—and where the most compelling risk-adjusted opportunities may emerge in the next market cycle.In this episode:– How Fed rate cuts could reshape fixed income returns– Why high-yield bonds and preferreds may outperform investment grade– Equity income opportunities beyond mega-cap tech– Small caps, sector rotation, and valuation discipline– How to position income portfolios for 2026 and beyondLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#FixedIncome #EquityIncome #Investing2026 #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #IncomeInvesting #WealthManagement #PortfolioStrategyStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show