L2 Capital podcast

Podcast #30: Adam Rozencwajg - commodities

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In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, a company specialized in natural resource investments, such as mining, energy and agriculture.

Adam explains the model developed by G&R to understand the dynamic of the shale oil production in the United States and the conclusions drawn regarding the level of productivity and quality of each oil well.

Rozencwajg talks about the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the impact that the clash has had on the oil market. He mentions the strengths and weaknesses that each side has in this dispute, such as, for example, the ability to deal with low prices, oil price needed to balance the budget and the influence of the currency on the costs and profitability of oil companies.

Adam comments on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on world oil demand and stocks so far and his expectations going forward.

In the face of low oil prices, Rozencwajg discusses the ability of U.S. shale producers to continue to pump oil after price normalization and highlights the role and importance that shale has in meeting global energy demands.

Adam explains the behaviour of prices in the oil futures market, which is currently in contango, and the possibility of returning to backwardation.

Rozencwajg comments on the discrepancies he has found and as well as the upcoming potential opportunities in the oil and gas companies, then finally, on what is important to take into account when analyzing the sector now.

As for the gold-oil ratio, which represents the ratio between the price of gold and the price of a barrel of oil, Adam acknowledges that it is at a very high level and gives his interpretation to the number and how it can be an indicator for positioning in shares of the energy sector in relation to the shares of producers of the precious metal.

Another index, the gold-silver ratio, (which is the ratio between the price of gold and that of silver), also at multi-year high levels, is discussed with Adam, who believes one has to have exposure to precious metals and the shares of companies that produce them.

Finally, Rozencwajg talks about uranium, the fundamentals of the sector and his expectations for the price of the commodity.

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    Podcast #30: Adam Rozencwajg - commodities

    34:05

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    Podcast #28: Paul Ma – CGN Mining

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    In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Paul Ma, director of CGN Mining, a company that is part of the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), the world's third largest nuclear power corporation, and a member of the board of directors of Fission Uranium. Paul has more than 10 years of experience in the uranium industry, including exploration, development, mining and investment activities. He is responsible for CGN Mining's overseas operations, including development, mergers and acquisitions. When asked if the uranium market is an opportunity, Paul brought an elaborate explanation, putting into place the most relevant events for the sector over the past 20 years from an historical perspective. He highlighted the characteristics of the last bull market along with several important factors and how they have changed, such as the role of low-cost producers, the Fukushima incident, expectations, the installed capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide and the signing of long-term contracts. Ma highlighted the existence of a deficit between world demand and primary uranium production and discussed the availability of the commodity in the spot market, the possibility of taking advantage of prices to increase inventories and the importance of guaranteeing a sustainable and reliable supply throughout several decades of a reactor's useful life. Paul spoke about jurisdictions that he considers interesting for carrying out asset acquisitions in the uranium mining sector, provided some details about two projects recently acquired in one of these locations and mentioned the characteristics he seeks in an M&A operation. Paul commented on his perspective regarding the expansion of nuclear energy production in the Asian giant, highlighting the technologies used, the importance of reactor standardisation and economies of scale in the process. Ma also talked about the level of uranium stock in the country, the level of prices observed today and ended by explaining the main risks he sees for the sector.
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    Podcast #27: Anas Alhajji – Oil markets

    23:30

    In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Anas Alhajji, a partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, as well as an internationally recognised author, speaker, researcher and specialist in the energy markets. Anas begins by discussing how the issue of the types and quality of oil is important and how that impacts the world trade in this commodity. In this context, he talks about the characteristics of shale oil produced in the USA, the structure and capacity of North American refineries, the country's exports and imports of oil, the future demand for oil products and the impact of natural gas on the market. Alhajji talks about the sharp drop in the price of oil this year and how the crisis that the sector is going through is unprecedented and the inconveniences and uncertainties that this creates for OPEC. He talks about his expectations regarding the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand and price. Anas highlights in his analysis the influence that the American presidential election has on oil producing countries and how this is a decisive factor for the price of the commodity in 2020. Alhajji points out that the years 2021 to 2023 should be very interesting for the sector and predicts a major global energy crisis, to which he attributes different factors, such as, the underestimation of future demand for oil products and the hype of electric vehicles. Anas also states his point of view on the dynamics involving shale oil from the United States and Canadian tar sands. When it comes to investment, Alhajji talks about how he prefers to position himself and where he sees more value along the sector's production chain. He also lists the main risks he sees for the sector and what can be done about the crisis he foresees. Alhajji discusses his point of view on the expectations of oil demand made by many analysts and the exaggerations that these analysts make when estimating the impacts of certain changes.

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