The Deal-Maker's Dilemma: Richard Nephew

Former NSC Director for Iran Richard Nephew returns to NatSec Matters to discuss the tactical and economic shifts in the Mideast conflict. Richard, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, gives Michael a candid assessment of the military campaign so far, highlighting the sophistication of allied coordination while questioning whether U.S. tactics are translating into long-term strategic success. Richard also discusses the outlook for the current ceasefire and evaluates what concessions Washington might allow Tehran in order to cut a deal.

Michael is joined by Roger Zakheim, Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, and Rich Goldberg, Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to discuss the high-stakes blockade of Iranian ports by the US Navy. Following a busy weekend in Islamabad that failed to yield a long-term resolution to the Mideast conflict, the trio gathered Monday to analyze the shift from kinetic strikes to a total maritime strangulation of the Iranian economy and what it means for the regime's survival. Roger and Rich also discuss the realistic prospects for a future diplomatic agreement and the outlook for impacts on the global energy trade.

Michael sits down with Admiral (Ret.) Chris Grady, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to break down the tactical evolution of the Iran conflict following President Trump's recent address to the nation. Admiral Grady provides an insider's perspective on the new deadline the President has announced for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating new strikes. He also explains the strategic calculus behind targeting Iran's energy infrastructure and deeply buried "missile cities." The conversation, recorded on April 3, 2026, explores the sophisticated "ecosystem" of Iranian defiance—from the mixing of missile propellant to the naval mechanics required to "cut the tail off the scorpion" and neutralize threats across the region's islands. Finally, Admiral Grady reflects on his time at the Bush National Security Council to explain how the U.S. is utilizing specialized assets like bunker busters to ensure the Iranian regime cannot threaten global security for a generation.

In this special episode, Michael discusses President Trump's primetime address to the nation on the Iran war with Matt Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy at the Atlantic Council. Matt offers his reaction to the President's forward-looking timeline and the administration's strategic claim that the conflict's final objectives are now within sight. He also assesses the likelihood of a ground invasion and how Iran might utilize "denial" attacks to fight back. Finally, Matt weighs in on shifting global alliances, including the impact of Elon Musk's decision to sever Russia's access to Starlink.

Michael speaks with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, following his recent trip to Ukraine. Admiral Montgomery explores the warfare strategies currently defining the conflict, as well as the evolving "gray zone" tactics Russia is employing against the Baltics. He also identifies critical weak spots in the Russian military machine, from logistical vulnerabilities to strategic anxieties, and provides a sobering assessment of the "ground situation" in Ukraine. Finally, Admiral Montgomery explains why the war could realistically continue for another three years and what the US must do to maintain the defense of its allies in the face of persistent Russian aggression.  

Michael speaks with Dr. Seth Jones, president of CSIS's Defense and Security Department, to analyze a critical moment in the Iran conflict: are we headed for a diplomatic off-ramp or a rapid escalation toward regime change? Dr. Jones assesses the degradation of Iran's naval and drone capabilities and explains why the current campaign has successfully reset the regional balance of power. However, he also explores the "buying time" strategy of Iranian diplomacy and the increasing pressure from Gulf states to see the regime ended as it continues to strike commercial and energy targets. Finally, Dr. Jones examines the tactical shift in Israeli targeting and what it means for the long-term survival of the IRGC.

Michael speaks with Yaakov Katz, former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post and author of "While Israel Slept", about the profound shift in the Israeli perspective as the focus of the war moves from regional proxies to a direct conflict with Iran. Yaakov explains why a majority of Israelis now support this military campaign, viewing it as a "unique historical opportunity" to dismantle the source of regional instability. He also examines the influence of President Trump on Israel's strategic calculus and offers a candid assessment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dramatic political comeback following the October 7th attacks.

In this special episode, Michael zeroes in on the potential for a collapse in global energy security amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. First, he speaks with Clay Seigle, a senior energy security fellow at CSIS, about the economic impact of the dangerous choke point at the Straits of Hormuz, where a paralyzed trade is threatening to send global oil prices soaring. Clay also analyzes the strategic implications of U.S. strikes on military infrastructure at Iran's key oil depot on Kharg Island. Then, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), breaks down the high-stakes naval mechanics of reopening the Straits and why the U.S. must reset Iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities by "five or seven years" to ensure long-term regional stability.

Michael speaks with Michael Doran, Director of the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and a former senior director in the National Security Council, about the outlook for U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Mr. Doran explains the internal power dynamics within the Iranian regime and why they matter to potential negotiations to de-escalate or end the conflict. He also explores the likely diverging interests of Israeli and American leaders, why understanding the influence of Iranian ethnic groups is vital to charting possible outcomes, and why he believes a citizen-led uprising to topple the government is unlikely.

Michael discusses the rapidly developing conflict in the Middle East with General Joseph Votel, former commander of CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command. General Votel analyzes the strategic implications of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the challenges of a potential special operations raid to recover highly enriched uranium in the country. He also examines the shifting power dynamics within the Iranian regime, including how the new Supreme Leader's lack of religious credentials may lead to increased influence from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.