Decoding the Logistics Managers Index | Dr. Zac Rogers

Every manufactured product inside your office, warehouse, and supply chain starts with early stage chemicals. Yet after leading global chemical production in 1980, the United States divested roughly 25 years ago while China grew to roughly one third of global chemical exports. Dr. Doug Friedman, Chief Executive Officer of BioMADE (Bioindustrial Manufacturing and Design Ecosystem), joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights. Catalyzed in 2020 inside the 18 institute Manufacturing USA network with nearly $90 million in initial federal funding, BioMADE now coordinates more than 300 member entities across 40+ states, has deployed nearly $250 million into member technology and workforce development, and has raised over $650 million to build shared domestic pilot and demonstration biomanufacturing facilities. Doug walks deal by deal through BioMADE's first three Pilot Plant Network sites: purchasing a 122,000 square foot clear span warehouse at 7500 Meridian Circle North in Maple Grove, Minnesota (backed by $50 million in state funds), acquiring a partially built pilot plant in Hayward, California and structuring a lease with its landlords so California opens first, and building adjacent to Iowa State University's NSF facility near Ames and Boone, Iowa (backed by $10 million from Governor Kim Reynolds). They also examine electrical switchgear and utility lead times, a 45% rise in steel prices, how fermentation tanks operate like a craft brewery making butadiene synthetic rubber, how members retain 100% of their IP, community college apprenticeships with guaranteed plant jobs, and why bolted down chemical plants require 30 year local coalitions. Resources: BioMADE Official Site: https://www.biomade.org/ BioMADE Pilot Plant Network: https://www.biomadepilotplants.com/ In this episode 00:00 Introducing Dr. Doug Friedman, CEO of BioMADE (Biomanufacturing Innovation Institute) 01:04 Everything starts with chemicals: securing the earliest link in US manufacturing across 40 states 04:11 The $4 trillion global chemical industry, why the US divested 25 years ago, and China's one third export share 07:21 Why 125 year old chemical plants cannot just restart and BioMADE's biomanufacturing bet 10:55 From UC Berkeley and Northwestern to federal technology roadmapping at the National Academy of Sciences 13:17 Founding EBRC, why nature is the best chemist, and creating BioMADE to bridge early tech into scale up 14:55 Advising the Pentagon and White House OSTP, and why AI still requires physical chemical production 16:53 How Manufacturing USA's 18 institutes work, BioMADE's $90M start, and translating government for industry 20:46 Raising $650M+ for US pilot plants through three creative real estate deals in Minnesota, California, and Iowa 25:39 Inside the four walls today: Maple Grove warehouse demo, Hayward pilot equipment, and Iowa State utilities 27:30 Construction constraints: switchgear, power, water, waste, and a 45% jump in steel prices 29:20 Inside an operational biomanufacturing plant: the craft brewery fermentation analogy for industrial chemicals 32:41 Coworking for chemicals: protecting member intellectual property, safety, and nonprofit trust 34:32 Deploying nearly $250M across 300+ members so companies scale in America instead of Europe, India, or China 36:37 Venture backed startups, Department of Defense needs, and guaranteed community college technician job pipelines 40:16 Underrated feedstocks and everyday products: corn dextrose, acidic dairy whey, cosmetics, and natural rubber 45:28 Hiring from Cargill and NatureWorks, why bolted down chemical plants never move, and 30 year local coalitions Recorded November 10, 2026. Figures spoken in the episode are the speakers' own and verified against official BioMADE releases and facility photography (https://www.biomade.org/ and https://www.biomadepilotplants.com/), paired with USGS aerial imagery of Maple Grove (MN), Hayward (CA), Boone/Ames (IA), and Washington, D.C. More Industrial Insights episodes: https://smithcre.com/podcast/ Watch the full video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/xzzeU9VTBsU

Why has Warehousing Prices never dropped below 50.0 in the entire 10-year history of the Logistics Managers' Index, and why does a record 20-point inventory forecast split point to middle-mile industrial tightness in 2027? Dr. Zac Rogers, Associate Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management at Colorado State University and Lead Author of the monthly Logistics Managers' Index (LMI), joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights. Published in partnership with Arizona State University, Colorado State University, the University of Rochester, Rutgers University, Florida Atlantic University, the University of Nevada, Reno, and CSCMP, the LMI crowdsources 150 to 200 director-level and C-suite supply chain leaders every month across 8 diffusion metrics where 50.0 marks breakeven. In October 2026, the overall LMI climbed to 70.7 (up 13.3 points year-over-year and the second-highest reading since March 2022), propelled by last-minute Q4 retail holiday inventory pulls that lifted Inventory Levels to 66.9 (69.6 Downstream vs. 64.1 Upstream), Inventory Costs to 88.8, and Warehousing Prices to 80.7 as Warehousing Capacity contracted to 43.5. Zac also explains why October 2026 is not a repeat of the 2022 bullwhip crash, how Port of Los Angeles Signal weekly TEU projections (+21%, +34%, and +74% year-over-year in the first three weeks of November) and Amazon's +$800 million October Prime Day point to an extended peak distribution season, why 12-month future predictions diverge significantly across 7 of 8 LMI metrics (71.8 Upstream vs. 51.8 Downstream on Inventory Levels; 85.4 Upstream vs. 71.4 Downstream on Warehousing Prices), and how hyperscale data center server staging and November 2026 state moratoriums affect middle-mile distribution hubs in West Phoenix (Loop 303), Atlanta, Indianapolis, Dallas, and North Las Vegas. Resources: All available LMI reports - https://www.the-lmi.com/ October 2026 Logistics Managers' Index Report - https://www.the-lmi.com/october-2026-logistics-managers-index.html In this episode 00:00 Introducing Dr. Zac Rogers, Colorado State University & Lead Author of the Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) 01:31 How the 8 LMI components and the 50.0 diffusion threshold work 04:22 Crowdsourcing the supply chain: 150 to 200 monthly director-level and C-suite respondents 08:49 Splitting Large vs. Small respondents: 'JIT for me, not for thee' during tariff front-loading 10:03 Class A vs. Class B real estate and why the LMI started splitting Upstream vs. Downstream in 2018 13:43 How the LMI slices every report: Upstream vs. Downstream, Early vs. Late month, and Large vs. Small 15:26 October 2026 LMI reaches 70.7: Inventory Levels (66.9), Inventory Costs (88.8) & Warehousing Prices (80.7) 19:34 Why October 2026 differs from the 2022 bullwhip crash and how supply chains built geographic resilience 23:16 Why Warehousing Prices (80.7 in October 2026) is the only metric never to contract below 50 in 10 years 25:23 Southern California (-35%) vs. Phoenix (+30%) rent resets and why high-50s is healthy equilibrium 27:02 Port of LA Signal: September 2026 all-time record, November TEU surges (+21% to +74%) & $800M Prime Day growth 31:02 Ten years of supply chain whiplash (2016 to 2026) and why 'normal' years are gone 32:28 2027 predictions: the I-5 traffic analogy and record 10-year Upstream vs. Downstream divergence (71.8 vs. 51.8) 36:06 Why 2026-2027 industrial real estate pressure shifts to the Middle Mile (Phoenix Loop 303, Atlanta, Indy, Dallas & North Las Vegas) 37:47 Data centers leasing short-term middle-mile warehouses for air-freighted servers and November 2026 state moratoriums 40:48 When the 500-pound gorillas slow down: why industrial real estate benefits from tenant diversification 42:58 Where to read a full year of free LMI reports and join the monthly survey at the-lmi.com Recorded November 6, 2026. Official charts and statistical tables from the October 2026 Logistics Managers' Index report (https://www.the-lmi.com/october-2026-logistics-managers-index.html) and all available LMI reports (https://www.the-lmi.com/), plus USGS/Esri aerial maps of Tempe (ASU/ISM), Port of Los Angeles, Interstate 5 in Irvine, West Phoenix Loop 303, and U.S. middle-mile logistics hubs. Full transcript, chapters, and video clips: https://smithcre.com/podcast/zac-rogers/

What happens when the world's largest e-commerce fulfillment network rebounds to 85 million square feet a year, turns into a soup-to-nuts third-party logistics provider, and books out top warehouse automation vendors through 2031? Marc Wulfraat, President and Founder of MWPVL International Inc., joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights after 38 years in supply chain, logistics, and distribution center consulting. Unlike vendor-affiliated integrators, MWPVL operates as a strictly unbiased advisory firm taking zero commissions or kickbacks from automation, software, or real estate providers. Back in 2006, when Amazon operated roughly 20 warehouses, Marc began tracking their fulfillment network from his basement; today MWPVL's research database covers more than 3,000 Amazon logistics facilities worldwide, including roughly 1,600 across the United States. Marc explains why Amazon built one fulfillment center every 24 hours (4M to 5M SF per week) at the 2020-2021 peak and treats warehouses like retail stores to drive Prime ordering frequency, how Amazon Warehousing and Distribution (AWD) and Southern California National Inbound Cross Docks (NIXDs) work, how regional 3PLs compete against 3M-to-4M SF automated multi-story hubs, why automation payback has stretched from 5 years to 10-to-12 years (creating a major mismatch with 10-year industrial leases), why modern distribution centers favor 56'x50' column grids and 40'+ clear heights, and how Amazon Now's 1,000 urban dark stores and the post-2030 demographic labor cliff will reshape infill industrial real estate. In this episode 00:00 Introducing Marc Wulfraat, President & Founder of MWPVL International 01:26 38 years in supply chain consulting and why MWPVL takes zero vendor or 3PL commissions 03:00 Billing under budget, word-of-mouth referrals, and avoiding the consulting bus-driver trap 05:07 How a 2006 basement project tracking 20 Amazon buildings grew into a 3,000+ facility database 08:24 Fulfillment centers, sortation centers, delivery stations, and why Amazon treats warehouses like retail stores 10:28 Amazon's square footage cycle: 200M SF/yr peak in 2021, 54M SF trough in 2025, and 85M SF rebound in 2026 13:38 Amazon Supply Chain Services and AWD: becoming a soup-to-nuts global 3PL for third-party merchants 16:10 Inside Amazon's two-step inbound cross-dock architecture (NIXD long-term storage to RIXD to FC) 18:33 The 800-pound gorilla in the 3PL market: 3-to-4M SF hubs vs. regional 3PLs and 15% unit growth 20:30 Network design vs. warehouse automation: centralization vs. 2-day speed and AS/RS single-aisle risk 24:29 Vertical integration in robotics: Amazon's 1,000,000+ robots and Kiva vs. Walmart's third-party vendors 26:31 Why U.S. automation (~10%) lags Europe, China, and Japan, the Age Dependency Ratio, and vendors sold out to 2031 29:29 From 5-year to 12-year automation ROI paybacks: hidden OpEx, $25 vs. $45 wages, and December go-live failures 34:05 Bolted-down automation vs. lease terms: AutoStore relocations, Amazon's 25-year ownership horizon, and Years 10-20 options 38:19 Capital depth and why Marc stays deep and narrow on supply chain strategy and AutoCAD layouts for 1M+ SF buildings 40:30 Facility design down to the inch: greenfield vs. brownfield, build-to-suit, and 56'x50' / 56'x60' column grids 43:43 Urban infill and Amazon Now: 1,000 5,000-SF rapid fulfillment centers, 15-to-30-minute delivery, and unit economics Recorded November 5, 2026. Visuals include USGS/Esri logistics corridor maps (Southern California San Pedro Bay / Inland Empire NIXD corridor and Midwest central U.S. distribution hub), 3D warehouse and robotics schematics, and Lee & Associates industrial facility photography and tour footage. Full transcript, chapters, and video clips: https://smithcre.com/podcast/marc-wulfraat/

How does serving 17 years in municipal government, including seven terms as Mayor of Osseo, Minnesota, change the way an industrial broker approaches entitlements, water infrastructure, and site selection? Duane Poppe, SIOR, CCIM, Managing Principal and co-founder of Lee & Associates Twin Cities, joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights to share lessons from operating a one-square-mile city (where 25% of the land is non-revenue-producing) alongside launching Lee & Associates' 55th office 10 years ago with three partners from competing firms. We walk through top-down vs. bottom-up city approvals, why zoning text amendments and Conditional Use Permits (CUPs) must run sequentially, why December's single budget meeting adds a month to approvals, and how Duane and Lee's Mike Earnheart executed a two-plus-year, two-state site selection for Niagara Bottling by screening municipalities for three-to-five-year excess water capacity before touring buildings. Duane also breaks down how institutional owners like AMB, Prologis, and Link Logistics transformed the ~300M SF Twin Cities industrial market and pushed blended NNN rents from $5.00-$5.25/SF to $9.25-$10.00/SF (~14% growth over three years), why adding end entrances and a central 'glass pack' helped lease a 180,000 SF spec building to four tenants, why developers are tearing down single-story suburban office buildings inside the I-494 / I-694 loop for infill industrial, why 28-foot clear height often beats 32-foot for multi-tenant bays, why AMB called the Twin Cities 'like a bond market' anchored by Fortune 500 headquarters and Medical Alley spin-outs, and how Lee & Associates' co-investment platform helps brokers move from making good money to building lasting wealth. In this episode 00:00 Introducing Duane Poppe, Managing Principal of Lee & Associates Twin Cities and Mayor of Osseo 00:39 17 years in city government: 3 years on City Council and 7 terms as Mayor of Osseo 01:37 Operating a one-square-mile city where 25% of land is non-revenue-producing 03:41 Top-down vs. bottom-up municipal approvals: vetting industrial projects with mayors and council 05:11 Zoning text amendments, Conditional Use Permits, and the December budget bottleneck 06:17 Why local government affects real day-to-day change compared to state and national politics 08:07 Launching Lee & Associates Twin Cities as Lee's 55th office 10 years ago 11:13 Keeping the Lee & Associates launch confidential and Jeff Rinkov's cross-office culture 12:28 Moving from landlord representation to the three-legged stool: Money loves clarity 15:06 The Mayor of CRE Delivers: 2+ year Niagara Bottling two-state site selection with Mike Earnheart 17:21 Screening municipalities for 3-to-5-year excess water capacity and surviving a council rejection 19:59 How institutional capital transformed Twin Cities industrial: AMB, Prologis, and Link Logistics 22:35 Twin Cities rent growth: from $5.00-$5.25/SF to $9.25-$10.00/SF (~14% over 3 years) 23:37 Inside the 300M SF Twin Cities market: CRG's 1M SF The Cubes and multi-tenant spec design 25:31 Upper Midwest supply chain geography: why tenants leapfrog Chicago to serve MN and the Dakotas 27:54 The I-494 / I-694 highway loop, tearing down suburban office for infill industrial, and Roseville 30:10 Small-bay construction costs and clear-height evolution: why 28 feet beats 32 feet for multi-tenant 31:48 Why AMB called the Twin Cities a bond market: 7M SF pipeline and Fortune 500 stability 34:49 Medical Alley: DiaSorin Molecular, Boston Scientific, Medtronic, and serial med-tech spinouts 36:14 Making good money vs. building wealth: real estate depreciation and Lee & Associates co-investment Recorded November 5, 2026. Visuals include USGS/Esri corridor maps and site aerials (Osseo MN, Lee & Associates Twin Cities in St. Louis Park MN, Niagara Bottling in Elko New Market MN, The Cubes at French Lake in Dayton MN, Twin Cities I-494 / I-694 loop & Roseville MN, Medtronic & Boston Scientific in Medical Alley, and the Chicago to Twin Cities to Fargo/Sioux Falls distribution corridor), plus custom data visualizations. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EVgwSelV0Gc Full transcript, chapters, and video clips: https://smithcre.com/podcast/duane-poppe/

What is driving metro Atlanta past 900 million square feet of industrial inventory while data centers bid up to 10x traditional industrial land prices? Willie Candler, Principal at Lee & Associates Atlanta, joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights. A four-year starting quarterback and Athletics Hall of Fame inductee at the University of West Georgia in Carrollton, Willie entered commercial real estate six and a half years ago as the first hire in Lee Atlanta's research associate program and now manages a 5,000,000+ square foot institutional landlord portfolio alongside a multi-market Southeast industrial outdoor storage (IOS) client. We trace how hiring Dan Wagner from CBRE accelerated Lee Atlanta's market intelligence and how Willie covers the Northwest Atlanta, I-20 West, and I-75 North corridors up to Calhoun, Dalton, and Chattanooga. Willie also breaks down how the Port of Savannah's river deepening and Georgia's Northeast and Northwest inland rail ports save 45 minutes of highway drayage through Atlanta, how Hyundai and Rivian are reshaping Southeast automotive manufacturing, why million-square-foot leases from Nike, TikTok, and Google tightened the bulk market, why 9 out of 10 older buildings lack fenced trailer storage, how 'the Buford jump' pushed rents from $6-$7 NNN into the teens and low-$20s NNN, and how hiring a junior broker plus continuous pipeline backfilling compounded his business into the Lee Atlanta partnership at age 30. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/MU94t5arUS0 In this episode 00:00 Introducing Willie Candler, Principal at Lee & Associates Atlanta, and his West Georgia Hall of Fame QB career 01:59 How Dave Howard built Lee Atlanta's Research Associate program in late 2020 03:10 Hiring CBRE national research head Dan Wagner and building an intelligence engine 04:34 Teaming up with Billy Snowden on Northwest Atlanta, I-20 West, and I-75 North to Calhoun and Dalton 05:53 The Port of Savannah boom: river deepening, TEU capacity, and Georgia's Northeast and Northwest inland rail ports 08:39 Southeast automotive and EV manufacturing: Hyundai, Rivian on I-20 East, and 2,000+ job plant announcements 09:32 Atlanta's 900M+ SF industrial market and how data centers bid 10x industrial land value 11:22 Data center moratorium politics and the wave of pipe, HVAC, and electrical supply-chain tenants 12:17 Bulk market rebound: Nike, TikTok, and Google each lease 1M SF as available 1M SF buildings drop to 4 13:35 Why trailer parking is scarce inside Atlanta's core and why tenants face the Buford jump 17:11 From young associate to Principal: valuing your time, spotting tire-kickers, and continuously backfilling the pipeline 19:51 Hiring a former summer intern as a junior broker and Craig Coppola's pie-split framework for scaling a team 23:08 Managing a 5M+ SF landlord portfolio, winning developer land sites, and Southeast IOS expansion 25:30 Shallow bay and small bay rent pressure heading into 2027 vs. SoCal's peak-to-trough correction 27:43 Making Partner at Lee & Associates Atlanta and Justin's $500K triplex-to-1031 industrial story Recorded November 5, 2026. Visuals include USGS/Esri corridor maps (Carrollton & I-20 West, Northwest Atlanta & I-75 North to Calhoun/Dalton, Port of Savannah & Georgia Inland Rail Ports, Southeast Auto Corridor, and Buford / I-85 Northeast), industrial property photography, and labeled AI visualizations where noted on screen. Full transcript, chapters, and video clips: https://smithcre.com/podcast/willie-candler/

What happens when a Western market stays open in 2020, draws a wave of California migration in 2021, and sees construction and land costs reset the industrial rent floor? Nick Provenzano, SIOR, Principal at Lee & Associates Idaho, joins Justin Smith, SIOR, on Industrial Insights to break down the Treasure Valley industrial market and his rapid rise from Boise State walk-on football player (recruited out of Glendora, California in 2016) to Principal in five years. We walk through how the 2021 inward migration double boom pushed Boise industrial lease rates to all-time highs, how traffic flows along the I-84 spine from Micron's Southeast Boise campus through Meridian, Nampa, and Caldwell, and how the New Highway 16 extension is resetting the 50-yard line of the valley toward Star, Eagle, and Emmett. Nick also shares his four-step daily brokerage flywheel built with Founding Principal Matt Mahoney, SIOR, Jason O'Very, and Massimo coaching, how bird-dogging 20-to-100-acre farm tracts for a national home builder taught him entitlements and public hearings, why small-bay space at $1.50 to $1.60/SF/mo NNN and 10% to 15% coverage industrial outdoor storage (IOS) cannot be replicated at today's land basis, and how he invests alongside industrial clients without buying himself a second job. In this episode 00:00 Introducing Nick Provenzano, SIOR, Principal at Lee & Associates Idaho 00:19 Recruited from Glendora, California to play football at Boise State (2016) 00:45 Pivoting from football to sales, interning at Lee Idaho (2020), and becoming Principal 01:55 Getting thrown into the fire during the 2021 Boise industrial boom 02:43 How Boise stayed open during COVID and triggered the 2021 inward migration double boom 04:12 Why Boise industrial lease rates are at all-time highs (ATH) 05:58 Mentorship under Founding Principal Matt Mahoney, SIOR and Jason O'Very 07:55 Partnering with Associate Mike to build a team running at the same speed 10:14 The 4-step daily flywheel: Boise State football process + Massimo coaching 11:32 Balancing active deals near the end zone vs. protecting the daily prospecting hour 14:27 How new brokers win their first deals by peddling office listings and canvassing neighbors 15:55 Bird-dogging 20-to-100-acre farm tracts for a national home builder to learn land development 17:23 Public hearings in the Treasure Valley: why neighbors fight 150 homes more than warehouses 20:24 Mapping the I-84 industrial corridor (Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Caldwell) and Micron's SE Boise fab 22:02 New Highway 16: resetting the 50-yard line of the Treasure Valley toward Star, Eagle, and Emmett 24:30 Small-bay industrial ($1.50-$1.60/SF/mo NNN) and why 10-15% coverage IOS cannot be rebuilt 28:11 Investing in industrial real estate with clients vs. buying yourself another job as a landlord 33:59 Closing advice for young brokers: a goal without a plan is just a dream Recorded November 3, 2026. Visuals include Lee & Associates Idaho industrial property photography, Treasure Valley corridor maps (I-84, New Highway 16, and Southeast Boise), and labeled AI visualizations where noted on screen. Full transcript, chapters, and video clips: https://smithcre.com/podcast/nick-provenzano/

Where a warehouse goes is a supply chain decision before it is a real estate decision. Prasad Mahajan, Senior Director of Customer Engagement at Optilogic, joins Justin Smith on Industrial Insights after 22 years across Transplace and Uber Freight. We walk through how a network model weighs service against cost, why a manufacturer with a plant in Salt Lake City still kept its distribution center in Rialto, when executives override the math, and how testing a nearshoring move saved a company from relocating production for a short-term disruption. We also cover how agentic AI is compressing model builds from weeks to hours, why 3PLs are winning business as strategic advisors, and how running thousands of simulations can tell an occupier when it will run out of warehouse capacity years before signing the next lease. Recorded October 30, 2026. Client examples and modeling timelines are Prasad's accounts from his work; illustrative warehouse footage and maps do not depict named customer sites. Optilogic Optilogic Cosmic Frog Optilogic DataStar Optilogic Ada (Agentic AI) Episode page, clips and transcript Industrial Insights with Justin Smith, SIOR.

A flat floor, a big power number and a signed purchase order do not tell you whether a warehouse is ready for automation. Parth Pethani of Prologis is back on Industrial Insights. We talk through the checks that can change a project before it starts: floor conditions, transformer capacity, fire protection, permit sequencing, warehouse software and the people responsible after go-live. Parth also shares where he sees AI helping with software development and supply-chain analysis, why physical execution still matters, and how midmarket 3PLs can start with specific tasks. Recorded October 29, 2026. Customer examples and project figures are the speakers' accounts; they are not independently measured benchmarks or engineering specifications. Parth's newsletter: https://parths-newsletter-7ea31b.beehiiv.com/ Warehouse Automation Maturity Model: https://whserobotics.com/maturity-model/ Our previous conversation: https://smithcre.com/podcast/parth-pethani/ Visual sources: Prologis / DEVELON, Boom, Belgium (illustrative warehouse imagery); Parth Pethani / Whserobotics, Warehouse Automation Maturity Model (2026). Industrial Insights with Justin Smith, SIOR.

When does an older industrial building deserve another look? Marty Shiff, President / CEO of Rooflifters, joins Justin Smith to pick up their 2019 conversation. We talk about what has changed in roof lifting and where the opportunity is today: partial lifts for manufacturing and storage, more loading, stronger slabs, better column spacing and the math behind keeping an existing building. Marty walks through an illustrative project budget, the surprises to look for before committing, and how his team uses AI renderings to help owners see what a building could become. We also discuss the client mix, rent spreads, steel availability and warehouse automation. The costs and schedules discussed are examples that depend on the building, location and scope. Recorded October 26, 2026. Guest: Marty Shiff, President / CEO, Rooflifters https://rooflifters.com/ Watch the full conversation on YouTube