Global Trade Outlook: Tariff Risks and Energy Shock (27 min)

Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Middle East conflict are still present, and physical disruptions to energy markets remain. However, financial markets have recently reflected a focus less on headlines and energy shocks and more on positive economic fundamentals and strong AI-related investment. On May 6, BMO experts examined how equity markets, FX, and macro data are considering evolving geopolitical risks, pricing in potential outcomes while downplaying others. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

To help clients navigate geopolitical and economic uncertainties, BMO convened a group of experts to examine how tensions in the Middle East and disruption to physical delivery of oil and other goods remain an important consideration for markets across asset classes, what second order effects are proving more durable, and how companies and investors can navigate a range of economic outcomes. Sadiq Adatia, Chief Investment Officer, BMO Global Asset Management, moderated the conversation featuring Katherine Krantz, Managing Director, Portfolio Strategy, BMO Capital Markets and Robert Kavcic, Director and Senior Economist, BMO Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

On April 8, BMO hosted a digital event exploring how global trade could evolve this year, the potential impact of volatile oil prices, how U.S. tariff policy could evolve, and risks to U.S.–Canada trade. Steve Verheul, former Chief Trade Negotiator for Canada, joined a panel of BMO experts to share perspectives on the trade outlook and how businesses and investors can prepare. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In this episode, Helen Amos and Joel Jackson discuss disruptions to fertiliser supply chains stemming from the Iran conflict. Nitrogen and sulphur prices have already seen huge gains (phosphate prices are rising too) with seemingly little slack in the system for a supply response to plug the gap. They discuss how this compares in scale with the onset of the Russia/Ukraine war in 2022, and what this means for mining operations dependant on sulphuric acid for leaching and ammonia nitrate for explosives. ⁠Click here for transcript.⁠ BMO clients can view our reports here: ⁠Fertilizer Stocks Reawaken as Conflict Intensifies⁠ ⁠Middle East Conflict Supply Risk: Aluminium and Iron Ore Pellets Vulnerable⁠ ⁠Mining Costs With Higher Oil; What Are The Sensitivities?⁠ ⁠BMO Special Event: Commodities: Middle East Conflict⁠ ⁠First Attempt to Quantify Current Conflict, Comping to 2022 (and Even 2008)⁠⁠Another Week of War Escalation and Duration -Driven Volatility⁠ ⁠Fertilizer and Methanol Impacts From Middle East and Iran Developments⁠ To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

On March 17, BMO hosted a discussion on the Middle East conflict and how it is likely to impact the US and Canadian economies, and energy markets. The panel included: Doug Porter, Chief Economist, who discussed the implications for growth, inflation, and central bank policy, and Randy Ollenberger, Oil and Gas Analyst, who explored whether markets are pricing this as a temporary supply shock or a more persistent geopolitical risk, and what that means for oil, refined products, and volatility ahead. ⁠Click here for transcript⁠ To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

Commodity prices are reacting in a major way to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Please join our analysts, Randy Ollenberger, John McNulty, Joel Jackson, Helen Amos and George Heppel for a group conference call where we discuss our latest thoughts for near- and medium-term impacts on energy, metals, fertilizers, and chemicals markets. ⁠Click here for transcript.⁠ To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures⁠

On March 9th, we sat down with Doug Porter and Randy Ollenberger to examine the market and economic implications of the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy shock. The conversation traces recent geopolitical developments, reactions across energy commodities and equities, and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Doug Porter assesses inflation, growth, and central bank implications for Canada and the U.S., while Randy Ollenberger outlines scenarios keeping oil above $100 or pulling it back lower. Click here for transcript To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In this special Metal Matters podcast, BMO Commodities Analyst Helen Amos is joined by Ro Dhawan, President and CEO of the ICMM to discuss how the role of sustainable mining is shifting in a world where mining and critical minerals has been thrust into the foreground of global geopolitics. They discuss the new Consolidated Mining Standard which marks a major turning point in harmonising standards across the industry, as well as progress made in tailings management,  gender-based violence, and the urgency around improving safety performance. Ro suggests that the increase in government participation and M&A in mining could bring opportunities for sustainability too. Click⁠ here⁠ for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In this episode, Helen Amos is joined by BMO’s Chief Economist Doug Porter to discuss the impact of big macro shifts on the metals and mining space. They talk everything from rate cuts, the US dollar, AI, de-dollarisation, global trade, and emerging market development Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: ⁠https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures ⁠

With a few months to go in 2025, our expert panel delves into their latest outlook for the US and Canada, exploring GDP, inflation, central bank policy and trade policy. Ernie Tedeschi, Director of Economics at Yale University’s Budget Lab, Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO and Dan Philips, Chief Investment Officer, BMO US Wealth Management, each provide their unique perspectives on asset classes, market risks, and the evolving landscape influenced by AI, automation, and de-globalization. Click here for transcript To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures