Cold War Analogies: Francis J. Gavin on how (and how not) to use the Cold War as a guide

We reach for the Cold War as if it were a really good pocket tool: compact, familiar, ready to deal with any problem in today’s world. U.S.–China rivalry? “Cold War 2.0.” Russia and the West? “Cold War redux.” The appeal is obvious: the Cold War offers a story we already know how to tell—great-power tension, nuclear standoff, ideological blocs, and finally, a tidy ending.But as Francis J. Gavin argues, analogies always smuggle in assumptions. To label something a “new Cold War” is to commit to a whole strategic script: decades of rivalry, fixed blocs, and an expectation of how the story ends. But what if the conditions that defined the 20th-century Cold War—its nuclear stability, its institutions, even its duration—don’t apply now? And what if these words “Cold War”that you use do not mean what I mean by the words “Cold War”?Francis J. Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and Director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is the author of Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age and Thinking Historically: A Guide for Policymakers.For notes, links, and a vast archive, go to www.historicallythinking.org

IntroductionEach year millions of tourists visit the Czech capital, awed by its blend of architectural styles and dramatic landscape. St. Vitus’s Gothic cathedral towers above the Charles Bridge and the Vltava River, while winding alleys lead to elegant squares lined with Renaissance palaces, Baroque statues, and modern glass structures. Yet this beauty obscures centuries of conflict — ethnic, religious, political, and more typically mundane conflicts— beginning when Prague was just a fort on a hill above a river. Presumably it wasn’t built there for the view.In her new book, Prague: The Heart of Europe, Cynthia Paces traces the city’s history from the late ninth century, when Slavic dukes built the first fortifications and church, through eleven centuries of triumph and tragedy. Prague has been both an imperial center of a great empire and a city on the periphery of empires—several of them. It became a European capital of art, politics, and pilgrimage, endured religious wars and defenestrations, and was nearly destroyed in the Thirty Years’ War. At the beginning of the twentieth century it was celebrated as a beacon of democracy, only for its citizens to endure violent antisemitism, Nazi occupation, and communist repression — before once again becoming a beacon of democracy.Through her story of Prague we come to understand the truth of Franz Kafka’s observation: “Prague does not let go; this little mother has claws.” Our conversation moves across centuries of wars, saints, emperors, rebellions, and revolutions to show why Prague still grips the imagination.About the GuestCynthia Paces is Professor of History at The College of New Jersey. She is the author of Prague Panoramas: National Memory and Sacred Space in the Twentieth Century and co-editor of 1989: The End of the Twentieth Century.For Further InvestigationCynthia Paces, Prague: The Heart of Europe (Oxford University Press, 2025)—Prague Panoramas: National Memory and Sacred Space in the Twentieth Century (University of Pittsburgh Press, 2009)Chad Bryant, Prague in Black: Nazi Rule and Czech Nationalism (Harvard University Press, 2007)Derek Sayer, Prague, Capital of the Twentieth Century: A Surrealist History (Princeton University Press, 2013)Related Episodes“Edges are Interesting: A History of Eastern Europe”“City of Light, City of Darkness”“Madrid”Listen & DiscussHow does Prague’s geography help explain its importance across European history?What does the Prague Spring reveal about the continuing interplay in Prague’s history of freedom, repression, and resilience? Share the podcast with someone who has visited Prague, or who has always meant to.

It might seem obvious that the study of history ought to  improve the crafting of public policy. Surely if we understand the past, we should be able to make better decisions in the present—especially in the high-stakes worlds of statecraft and strategy. But that assumption raises deeper questions: How should history be used? What history should be used? How do we gain the kind of historical knowledge that truly shapes decisions? And why is it that historians and policymakers so rarely speak the same language?In his new book Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy, my guest Francis J. Gavin argues that a genuinely historical sensibility can illuminate the complex, often confusing realities of the present. Good historical work, he writes, does not offer easy analogies or tidy morals. Instead, it captures the challenges and uncertainties faced by decision-makers, complicates our assumptions, forces us to see the familiar in new ways, and invites us to understand others on their own terms without abandoning moral judgment. Thinking historically, Gavin shows, is a discipline of discernment, curiosity, and humility—qualities as necessary in statecraft as they are in life.Francis J. Gavin is the Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS. He is also the author of Gold, Dollars, and Power; Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy; and The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty.Go to www.historicallythinking.org for more

In 1960 Yigael Yadin, formerly chief of the Israeli general staff and by that year a prize winning archaeologist, visited the home of Israel’s president David Ben-Gurion, and said to him “Mr. President, I have the honor to tell you that we have discovered 15 dispatches written or dictated by the last president of ancient Israel over 1800 years ago.” Yadin was announcing the discovery of a collection of scrolls written by Simon Bar-Kosiba, better known as Bar-Kohkba, who had led the Second Jewish Revolt against Rome, from 132 to 135 AD. Bar-Kochba was an inspiration to Israelis in the founding generation of the Republic of Israel who otherwise detested each other politically, finding in him a common source of inspiration for their own struggle. His is one of the many legacies of the series of revolts by the Jews against their Roman rulers, but not close to being the most consequential. For among the many unintended consequences of the wars of Rome against the Jews was not only the creation of the Talmud and modern Judaism, but the simultaneous growth of Christianity. With me to talk about these momentous events is Barry Strauss. He is the Corliss Page Dean Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University as well as the Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor in Humanistic Studies Emeritus at Cornell University, where he was formerly Chair of the Department of History as well as Professor of History and Classics. A prolific author, his most recent book is Jews vs Rome: Two Centuries of Rebellion Against the Worlds Mightiest Empire. This is his fourth appearance on Historically Thinking. For Further InvestigationBarry Strauss' most recent appearance on the podcast was to discuss "The War That Made the Roman Empire". He also contributed

Amanda Roper is a public historian who has spent her career working to preserve historic places and share traditionally underrepresented stories from America's past. She has been Director of the Lee-Fendall House Museum and Sr. Manager of Public Programs & Interpretation at Woodlawn & Pope-Leighey House, both in Alexandria, Virginia. In 2018, Amanda was recognized by the National Trust for Historic Preservation on their list of 40 Under 40: People Saving Places for her significant impact on historic preservation and her contributions to the public's understanding of why places matter. Amanda is currently researching and writing a book about the history of women in preservation. She is a 2025-2026 Research Fellow at the George Washington Presidential Library at Mount Vernon. And, she also has been listening to Historically Thinking for a surprisingly long time–or so she claims.For Further Investigation Amanda Roper – Official WebsiteLee-Fendall House Museum & GardenWoodlawn & Pope-Leighey HouseMcLeod Plantation Historic SiteGullah Geechee Cultural Heritage CorridorNational Trust for Historic Preservation – 40 Under 40George Washington Presidential Library at Mount VernonSociety for American Archivists – Women’s History ResourcesNational Association for InterpretationRichard Moe, "Are There Too Many House Museums?""Resource or burden? Historic house museums confront the 21st century""Historic House Museums: 'A quirky, dusty, and endangered American institution"?Amanda Roper, "There is No Such Thing as Too Many Historic House Museums"

Join Al Zambone and guest John Shelton Reed (author of The Ramos Gin Fizz, for the LSU Press series on iconic New Orleans cocktails) for a deep dive into the history, culture, and legend of the Ramos Gin Fizz—a cocktail that’s as much a symbol of New Orleans as it is a drink. From its 19th-century origins and the city’s cosmopolitan mix, to Prohibition, Huey Long, and the modern cocktail renaissance, this episode explores how a single drink can carry the weight of place and time.00:00 — Podcast intro00:23 — Welcome and guest introduction02:35 — The Ramos Gin Fizz: A New Orleans Legend (episode setup)02:35 — Origins and pronunciation of “Ramos”05:56 — Carl Ramos’s biography and 19th-century mobility05:56 — New Orleans in the late 19th century05:56 — Cosmopolitan city, Caribbean and European connections08:56 — Cultural divisions in New Orleans10:55 — German immigration and Civil War era11:06 — Rise of celebrity bartenders and cocktail culture13:18 — New Orleans’ iconic cocktails16:22 — The Ramos Gin Fizz recipe and its components17:45 — Al’s first attempt at the drink19:30 — The “shaker boys” and the three-minute shake21:00 — Flavor profile and chemistry29:29 — Fame, Prohibition, and Huey Long38:23 — Southern soft drinks and temperance44:48 — Where to find the perfect Ramos Gin Fizz today46:46 — Closing thoughts and thanksFor Further Investigation John Shelton Reed, Dixie Bohemia: A French Quarter Circle in the 1920s"How the South Cornered the Soda Market"The Sazerac Bar at the Roosevelt HotelRevel Cafe and Bar– where Chris McMillian spells it "Ramos Gin Phizz", which just makes everything a little more confusing than it already was

In the past we’ve had entire conversations on Historically Thinking–indeed, many conversations, a whole series of conversations–on intellectual humility and historical thinking, often asking “how have you changed your mind?” Today’s guest makes me confront the fact that there is probably no person in the historical past about whom I have had a greater change of mind than Thomas Jefferson.This somewhat uncomfortable reflection has been prompted by Cara Rogers Stevens book Thomas Jefferson and the Fight Against Slavery. In it she builds a foundation of deep engagement with the entire textual history of Jefferson’s Notes on the State of Virginia. Atop that she does what it says on the box, and traces the development not only of Jefferson’s views on slavery, but on how he wished to influence the next generation of Virginians in whom he placed so much hope.Cara Rogers Stevens is an associate professor of history at Ashland University. Thomas Jefferson and the Fight Against Slavery is her first book. It won the Herbert J. Storing Book Prize, was a finalist for the Center for Presidential History Book Prize, and runner-up for the Journal of American History Book of the Year Award. She is also co-host of the podcast The American Idea.

Hello: Autumn, 1949. Fortune editor Bill Furth, flinty-eyed gatekeeper, scans a manuscript from 30-year-old whiz kid Daniel Bell. Spots the word “charisma.” Snorts. Blue pencil meets page. Word dies swiftly, without much appeal. Fast forward ten years: charisma is everywhere. Eggheads bandy it, pundits quote it, preachers peddle it. Bell—vindicated. Since the 1950s, Americans have grown used to the word “charisma” being applied to everyone, often as a synonym for “charm”.. But what if charisma is more than charm or personal magnetism—what if it’s a key to understanding the moral and spiritual crises of American life itself? That’s the argument of Spellbound: How Charisma Shaped American History from the Puritans to Donald Trump, a sweeping new book by my guest historian Molly Worthen. In it, she traces the tangled story of charisma across four centuries of American history—from the Puritans through Andrew Jackson, to Malcolm X and Donald Trump.Charismatic leaders, Worthen argues, don’t simply stir emotions or win votes. They offer something deeper: a sense of cosmic meaning, spiritual clarity, and moral urgency in moments when traditional institutions seem hollow or adrift. In times of upheaval, we look for figures who promise to reveal hidden truths and restore a broken order. Molly Worthen is a scholar of American religious and intellectual history. She is Professor of History at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and writes regularly on religion and politics for the New York Times and other national outlets. Spellbound is her third book; she has previously authored Apostles of Reason: The Crisis of Authority in American Evangelicalism and The Man on Whom Nothing Was Lost, a biography of the diplomat, Yale professor, and  Bridgeton, NJ native Charles Hill. (That last for my five listeners in South Jersey.)

Shipwrecks as events are probably humanity’s most common form of disaster”, writes my guest James Delgado “As such, shipwrecks–aside from epidemics, warfare on land, or great natural disasters—have been the cause of the greatest number of human deaths throughout history. Thanks to ships and other watercraft, humanity did not just walk across the globe from its ancestral home in Africa. We made use of the ocean as a source of food and as a means of travel on our global journey. Humanity’s relationship with the water has also been shaped by the reality that for as much as is taken from the sea, something is lost. Those losses are ships, the goods on them, and people. Shipwrecks as events therefore ­have ­inspired ­one­ of ­the­ oldest­ genres­ of ­human ­reflection ­on­ the nature of life; [they] have been and remain a muse for religious thought, literature, music, and art.”These are some of Delgado’s introductory observations in his new book The Great Museum of the Sea: A Human History of Shipwrecks, a deep dive into the surprisingly rich history of human disaster at sea, and what those wrecks can tell us, both about the past, and about ourselves. From the cause of shipwreck to the beginnings of maritime archaeology, Delgado offers a history, a meditation, and pieces of a maritime archaeologist’s autobiography. James Delgado is Senior Vice President of SEARCH, Inc., the leading cultural resources firm in the United States. Previously he has been Director of Maritime Heritage for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; President and CEO of the Institute of Nautical Archaeology (INA); and host of the National Geographic international television series "The Sea Hunters". He was last on the podcast in Episode 292 to discuss his book The Curse of the Somers, in the course of which conversation he became the only guest in the over four hundred episodes of this podcast to break into song. He has a very pleasant baritone.For Further Investigation "The Blake Ridge Wreck: A Deepwater Antebellum Fishing Craft"Cynthia Kierner on disasters, including shipwrecks, in antebellum America

There is a U-boat in the middle of Chicago. It’s attached to the Museum of Science and Industry in Hyde Park. Generations of Chicagolanders, and their cousins from far away, have walked through U-505, but they don’t always ask how in the world it got to Chicago.A crucial moment in the journey of U-505 to its permanent berth was on June 4, 1944. On that day for the first time in the history of the US Navy  since, perhaps, October 7, 1864, the command “Away all boarders!” was given on the USS Pillsbury, part of the task force that had been searching for U-505 off the northwestern coast of Africa. Their challenge was to capture an underwater boat from the surface, and then keep it from sinking.How they got to that point, and what happened afterwards, is the subject of Alexander Rose’s new book Phantom Fleet: The Hunt for U-505 and World War II’s Most Daring Heist. In the course of describing one of the most audacious naval actions of the Second World War, Rose also reveals the secret war against German U-Boats.Alexander Rose is the bestselling author of Washington’s Spies, as well as American Rifle, Men of War, The Lion and the Fox, and Empires of the Sky. Born in the United States, he grew up in Australia, was semi-educated in England, worked in Canada, and now lives in New York. He also claims to be a committed listener to Historically Thinking. For Further Investigation “U-505. The Captured U‑Boat”: A museum-led walkthrough of the sub at the Museum of Science and IndustryOfficial exhibit page: Learn how U‑505, the only German U-boat in the U.S., made its way to a bunker in Hyde Park and what visitors can experience on the on-board tour  U.S. Naval History (History.Navy.Mil): Overview of the capture operation and the submarine’s eventual transfer to the Museum of Science and Industry