Caveman Marxists: Frank Dikötter on Whether China Is a Fiery Dragon or a Paper Tiger | GoodFellows | Hoover Institution

US forces launched bomb and missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, followed soon by an Iran-Israel ceasefire and the beginning of what could be a diplomatic realignment across the Middle East. The GoodFellows regulars and Hoover Senior Fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and former White House National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster discuss the collateral impact of the Trump administration’s move against the Iranian regime. The fallout includes: a possible expansion of Abraham Accords participants (as the Gulf States help Iran pursue a more peaceful nuclear program); NATO members willing to invest more in military readiness; the media’s second-guessing the effectiveness and wisdom of the B2 sorties; plus what message Trump’s use of military might—as opposed to revolving-door diplomacy—sends to the world’s various mischief-making capitals (Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang). Recorded on June 27, 2025. 

Israel launches air attacks intended to destroy Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Israeli cities, and the world waits to see what comes next – a return to the status quo, neighboring countries drawn into the conflict, or an end to the Iranian theocracy? GoodFellows regulars and Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson and former White House national security advisor Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss whether the Israeli goal of ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions is possible without U.S. assistance, how President Trump might respond if asked to directly engage, if the conflict will expand beyond the present bilateral exchanges, plus the outcome of regime change in a culturally diverse Iran (a peaceful transition or Libya 2.0?). After that: in honor of the 250th birthday of the United States Army, H.R. shares the thoughts of a fellow American general tasked with winning a war for liberty.

Is China hell-bent on a move against Taiwan, or does its saber-rattling not square with a military capability that’s perhaps overestimated? Frank Dikötter, a Hoover senior fellow specializing in the history of modern China, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss his reading of China’s desire and ability to project power, including its manufacturing capability and its suppression of individual liberties, plus the durability of Xi Jinping’s rule. Recorded on May 23, 2025.

America and China take a 90-day time-out in their dispute over tariffs; President Trump’s tour of the Middle East—the first overseas trip of his second term—raises unsettling questions about both his regional strategy and his family’s business dealings; and hostilities between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan raise questions of behind-the-scenes great-power machinations amidst “Cold War 2.” Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss what’s at stake in these various parts of the globe. After that: the three fellows debate the severity of Chinese espionage in America’s universities; and how AI’s ability to shortcut the learning process will impact the future of higher education.    Recorded on May 14, 2025.

Harvard University and the Trump administration do battle over civil rights, funding, and tax status. Europe confronts unpleasant realities as it honors the 80th anniversary of VE Day. And the Pentagon contemplates how new weaponry and technology will change the future of warfare.  It’s all part of a special “bring your own topic” episode of GoodFellows, which also examines the recent White House national security shakeup; the merits of a June 14 parade to celebrate the US Army’s 250th anniversary (it’s also President Trump’s 79th birthday); and the legacy of legendary “value investor” Warren Buffett as he steps down as Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO. Finally, with Mother’s Day approaching, the fellows reflect on the remarkable women who brought them into the world. Recorded on May 6, 2025.

Rejected by voters last November, the Democratic Party is perhaps afforded new life given President Trump’s decline in popularity and economic uncertainty ahead. What is the party’s message?  Rep. Ro Khanna, a prominent progressive voice whose California district includes parts of Silicon Valley, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss tariffs and the use of executive power, “blue state” mismanagement, the feasibility of a “Marshall Plan” for economically downtrodden parts of America, plus the chances of Democrats parting ways with their “old guard.” After that: the three fellows weigh in on the Trump presidency at the 100-day mark, the future of Catholicism after the death of Pope Francis, tax exemption for universities, their go-to takeout food (pizza yes; haggis, no), plus two April landmarks—the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Lexington and the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon. Recorded on April 28, 2025.

What are the economic and geopolitical effects of President Trump's imposition of tariffs on America's trading friends and foes? In an episode devoted solely to viewers' questions, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster delve into the certain volatility (and uncertain logic) of Trump's tariff maneuvers, what the future holds for the European Union, institutional decline within the U.S., plus what if any parallels between historical periods past and present (do all roads lead to Rome or Richard Nixon?). Also discussed: the uniqueness of a hybrid American republic/empire, "sleeper" nations that might emerge as powerhouses by 2050, and recommended biographies for secondary-school readers. Finally, as this month marks GoodFellows' fifth anniversary, the three fellows reflect on what they've learned over the course of gathering online and in-person for 150-plus shows.       Recorded on April 10, 2025.  

Does America have a plan for winning the competition of the future—mastering artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space, plus other material and developmental sciences? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution’s Morris Arnold and Nona Cox Senior Fellow and cochair of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR), explains how this one-of-a-kind partnership between the Hoover Institution and Stanford University’s School of Engineering gives policymakers the tools they need to better address the challenges facing cutting-edge industries. Also discussed: the Trump national security team’s inelegant use of a chat app while prepping for a military strike in Yemen, plus the significance (or lack thereof) of Trump’s nemeses caving in to his demands—and whether other entities (Canada, Panama, Greenland, Venezuela’s trade partners) will follow suit.    Recorded on March 26, 2025. Download the SETR report here: Stanford Emerging Technology Review 2025

US and Ukrainian officials will meet on March 12 to talk peace in Eastern Europe; a new US approach to China may or may not be in the works; and the Trump administration’s gas-brake approach to imposing tariffs on trade partners has a Hoover economist baffled.  Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and author of Seven Things You Can’t Say About China, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest in Ukraine and his concerns over China’s military, economic, and cultural hegemony. After that: The fellows dig deeper into the economic and strategic ramifications of Trump’s tariff ploys, followed by a “lightning round,” including the merits of a US “crypto strategic reserve”; the renaming an army fort in Georgia (H.R. having known the late general whose name was removed); the creator of Hamilton refusing to play a “Trumpier” Kennedy Center; plus what the two would give up for Lent if so inclined.    Recorded on March 7, 2025.

A one-week window into the Trump administration’s worldview—the president blaming Ukraine for Russia’s invasion; his vice president taking to social media to accuse a Hoover scholar of “historical illiteracy”; the US then refusing to join other UN members in condemning Russian aggression—raises the question: Is the Trump brand of confusion and controversy mere happenstance or a calculated means to an end?  American Enterprise Institute scholar, author, and columnist Matthew Continetti joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster, and Niall Ferguson (the subject of the vice president’s lashing on X) to discuss Trump’s unorthodox style, the showcasing of executive orders, and his chances of success at home and overseas. Also discussed: the significance of Trump’s firing top military brass, a $5 million “gold card” for US residency, the Washington Post’s editorial shift to “personal liberties and free markets,” Scotland’s rugby disappointment at the hands (and legs) of England, plus the late Gene Hackman’s best performances.     Recorded on February 27, 2025.