Where is the War in Ukraine Heading in 2024?

Following Iran’s attack on Israel, we consider the future of conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of an all-out regional war. The recent strike on Israel by Iran and its allies has reignited fears of a wider regional war and speculation over what form it could take. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr H A Hellyer, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, and Dr Louise Kettle, RUSI Associate Fellow and Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, to explore how – and to what extent – the Middle East is undergoing a political and security transformation that is being accelerated by the current round of regional violence and confrontation. What sort of regional power balance is likely to emerge from the current crisis? And what are the realistic prospects for a full-blown regional war?

This episode discusses the emergence of ‘counter-West’ groupings and how they fit within – and are seeking to shape – the wider global order. In 2023 we ran a series of episodes focusing on the Russia–China relationship, the growing linkages to Iran and Venezuela and to North Korea's emergence as an international actor, as well as efforts to forge the BRICS association into a larger non-Western organisation. While Western countries continue to stand behind the idea of a comprehensive, rules-based order built upon common norms, laws and institutions, these concepts are being contested by academics, politicians and public figures and are no longer accepted as automatically valid in large parts of the world. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Simon Rynn, Research Fellow for African Security at RUSI, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss what can be learnt from ongoing or latent conflicts that appear to pit Western actors and norms against challengers.

With Vladimir Putin claiming yet another victory in Russia’s recent national elections, we examine his tenure and what the future has in store. While Putin’s election victory was always a certainty, such political exercises involving mass engagement efforts are complex and potentially risky operations for authoritarian leaders. At the age of 71, and with a hold on power now lasting until at least 2030, how is Putin trying to justify his continued leadership? And how can a successor emerge in this stifling political environment? In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor David Lewis from the University of Exeter to answer these questions.

With the rise of China and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific to economic and geopolitical affairs, we look at the challenges faced by governments in Europe and North America. A history of solidarity and common approaches to dealing with threats affecting allies across the Atlantic might lead to the assumption that a transatlantic strategy and its supporting institutions would naturally emerge with regards to China. Shared commitments to universal human rights and adherence to a rules-based global order should also drive a convergence of policies. However, a variety of national political and trade considerations drive Europeans and North Americans in somewhat different directions when dealing with China. On this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Andrew Cainey, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, to discuss their latest research paper which tackles important questions such as: how much transatlantic cooperation on policy towards China is happening; why has it been difficult for allies on both sides of the Atlantic to agree on working together; and what do the differences between the Trump and Biden administrations’ approaches tell us about prospects for the future? This episode is brought to you as part of a RUSI project supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

As we mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we consider the implications of what has turned into a protracted conflict. Russia has seized back the initiative in the war, due at least partly to ampler supplies of ammunition and drones. While Ukraine continues to achieve important tactical victories against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the land and air campaign is increasingly characterised by Russian pressure and territorial gains. There are also growing doubts about the ability of the Euro-Atlantic community to adequately resource the war, with acute concern about the deadlocked debate in the US Congress over military support for Ukraine. As we enter the third year of the war, it is likely the fighting will stretch well into the future. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Hanna Shelest, Security Studies Programme Director at the think tank Ukrainian Prism, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chairman of the Ukrainian think tank the Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defence minister of Ukraine. Where is the war heading? And can Western unity on Ukraine hold?

The Global Security Briefing takes a forward look at how this conflict is shaping the region. Before the 7th of October, when Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, the Middle East appeared to have largely fallen off the list of priorities for Western policymakers. After decades of intense – and often unsuccessful and politically unpopular – involvement in the Middle East, Western governments were glad to pay less attention to the region.But the Middle East is now back to the top of the agenda for governments in London, Washington and other European capitals. There are long-term strategic challenges to think about: finding a way forward in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme; Iran’s proliferation of missiles and drones across the region; as well as cultivation of proxy forces. And as always, the critical task is the development of a more sustainable and stable regional order. In this edition of the Global Security Briefing, Neil is joined by Dr Tobias Borck from RUSI and Dr Julie Norman from University College London to look at how Israel’s war in Gaza is evolving and where the risks of wider regional escalation stand now.

As the US electoral cycle ramps up, we consider how they may shape the security landscape of the Americas in years to come. Despite Washington’s historical engagement in security cooperation with countries like Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and Chile, US-Latin American relations are not trouble-free.. Positive views of the US have declined, partly due to the emergence of new localplayers who seek alliances with Russia, China and Iran. Could President Biden revitalize relations with its southern neighbours if re-elected this year? And how might the return of Donald Trump influence Washington’s policies towards Latin America? In this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University and Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, to explore the dynamics of US-Latin American relations.What drives the US and other countries such as the UK to invest in security and diplomacy efforts in the Americas? And how is Washington currently dealing with China policy in the Americas, and its economic, scientific, and security prospects in the region?

As we welcome the new year, the International Security team at RUSI reviews the biggest geo-political events of the past 12 months and discusses what we can expect from 2024 in this two-part holiday special. What was foreseen, and what came unexpectedly in global security developments during the past year? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Carlos Solar, Simon Rynn, and Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss how the past 12 months have shaped Latin America, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific, and what we can expect during the coming year.

As the year draws to a close, the International Security team at RUSI reviews the biggest geo-political events of the year in this two-part holiday special. From the ongoing war in Ukraine to the crisis in Gaza, 2023 has seen some major global events. But how did 2023 pan out when compared to what was expected at the beginning of the year? What was foreseen and what has been unexpected? And, more importantly, how have security events altered the trajectory of the affected regions? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Ed Arnold and Tobias Borck to discuss how this year has shaped Russia, Northern Europe and the Middle East, and what we can expect from 2024.

As the war enters its second winter and third year, are we now facing the prospect of battles lasting until at least 2025? The prospect of an immediate decisive military breakthrough for Ukraine has disappeared. Kyiv’s offensive – launched in the summer – has largely subsided, with Ukraine’s troops exhausted from over six months of intense fighting. At the same time, Ukraine’s key international support pillars are under pressure. Depleted Western armouries will have far less to provide to Ukraine in the year ahead. Western political unity is being questioned, with struggles in the US Congress to ensure that Kyiv receives the critical military and economic assistance that it will need in 2024. And the EU is facing questions about whether there will be the unanimity to agree a €50-billion aid package and to open membership negotiations. Within Ukraine there are growing signs of concern about the current direction of the war. With the military campaign appearing to face a period of prolonged stalemate, in this episode of Global Security Briefing we are joined by Mark Galeotti, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Principal Director, Mayak Intelligence.