Swamp Notes: The Federal Reserve’s tariff dilemma

Swamp Notes is taking this weekend off so instead we wanted to share the latest episode from our fellow FT podcast, The Rachman Review.Nuclear talks between the US and Iran began last weekend in Oman, and are set to continue in the coming weeks. President Trump has warned that if the talks fail the US could take military action against the Islamic republic – an idea that Israel's government is pressing for. In this episode, we unpack what a new nuclear deal with Iran might look like – and how it could change the geopolitical picture in the Middle East.Subscribe to The Rachman Review wherever you get your podcasts - please listen, rate and subscribe. Presented by Gideon Rachman. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. Sound design is by Breen Turner.https://www.ft.com/content/819a2246-96eb-4730-85f4-ebe39ac91a61 https://www.ft.com/content/771f3b6f-75f9-4978-8bdb-f7834b9e7d04 https://www.ft.com/content/68e7eeb4-4785-4ba4-b730-0a20f2fd55e0  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China’s imports of US liquefied natural gas have completely stopped for more than 10 weeks, and Japan’s chief trade negotiator leaves Washington without an immediate agreement after meeting Donald Trump. The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.25 per cent. Plus, astronomers have found signs of biological activity on a planet 124 light years from Earth.Mentioned in this podcast:Astronomers claim strongest evidence yet of extraterrestrial life  Donald Trump weighs in on Japan trade talks but Tokyo team leaves without deal Donald Trump says Fed chair Jay Powell’s ‘termination cannot come fast enough’ECB cuts rates to 2.25% amid Trump trade war China stops buying liquefied gas from the US Audio credit: C-SPAN Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

 Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is warning that US tariffs are ‘likely’ to put at risk the central bank’s goals of keeping prices and unemployment in check, and chipmakers are reeling from a tough week. Plus, UK inflation fell more than expected to 2.6 per cent in March and the FT’s Aiden Reiter explains why emerging markets are doing surprisingly well in all this market volatility.  Mentioned in this podcast:Trump tariffs put Fed’s jobs and inflation goals at risk, Powell saysUnhedged: Emerging markets’ unexpected outperformance after “liberation day”ASML’s chipmaking machine orders disappoint amid tariff uncertaintyUK inflation falls more than expected to 2.6% in March The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Michela Tindera, Katie McMurran, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nvidia says it expects to take a $5.5bn blow as the US clamps down on the Silicon Valley group’s ability to export artificial intelligence chips to China, and PwC is exiting 12 countries. Plus, the junk bond market has basically ground to a halt, and India’s middle class is dealing with a debt crisis that could impact the country’s growth ambitions. Mentioned in this podcast:Nvidia to take $5.5bn hit as US clamps down on exports of AI chip to ChinaRisky corporate borrowers shut out of bond market since Trump’s tariff blitzHow India’s middle-class debt crisis is threatening growthPwC exits 12 countries in push to avoid scandals The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Katya Kumcova, Saffeya Ahmed, Katie McMurran, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brussels is exploring legal options that would allow European companies to break long-term Russian gas contracts, and Goldman Sachs had a mixed first quarter. Plus, China’s President Xi Jinping is traveling around south-east Asia to make the case that Beijing is open for business, and Argentina just landed a $20bn deal with the IMF. Mentioned in this podcast:Xi Jinping warns ‘no winners’ from Trump trade war as he heads to VietnamArgentina secures $20bn IMF deal by relaxing currency controlsGoldman Sachs’ chief hopeful Trump will listen to corporate AmericaEU explores legal options for ending Russian gas dealsThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Katie McMurran, Katya Kumcova, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US tariff exemptions on personal electronics may only be temporary, and big banks posted major earnings on Friday despite some economic headwinds. Plus, the European Union and the UK are getting closer to signing a defense pact, and the Trump Administration's pressure on universities could drive students and faculty overseas. Mentioned in this podcast:US tech tariff exemption will be temporary, says LutnickJPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon warns of ‘considerable turbulence’ in US economyWarning lights flash for US consumer strength as credit defaults riseAmerican academics seek exile as Trump attacks universitiesAI praise-giving tool promises ‘authentic’ insightsUK and EU close ranks on defence amid Trump turmoilThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US President Donald Trump’s global trade war has made a mess for the Federal Reserve. Despite an encouraging US consumer price index report this week, there are major concerns about the inflationary nature of Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the Fed has cut growth forecasts. And if all that wasn’t enough, Trump is breathing down chair Jay Powell’s neck to cut interest rates. The FT’s US economics editor Claire Jones and economics commentator Chris Giles explain why the central bank is caught in a difficult position.Mentioned in this podcast:Jay Powell’s tariff dilemma: defend the economy or contain inflationAlphaville: An emergency rate cut from the Fed?US inflation falls more than expected to 2.4% in MarchFederal Reserve ‘absolutely’ ready to help stabilise market if needed, top official saysSign up for the FT’s newsletter Chris Giles on Central BanksSign up for the FT’s Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US inflation fell more than expected to 2.4 per cent in March, and France’s Renault is one of the few carmakers insulated from Donald Trump’s trade war. Plus, ​​Indonesia is looking to run its colossal new sovereign wealth fund “like a public company”. Mentioned in this podcast:US inflation falls more than expected to 2.4% in March Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund vows transparency ‘like a public company’ Renault emerges as winner in Trump tariff chaos Sky to bring hit US series ‘Saturday Night Live’ to the UK Credit: NBCThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Katya Kumcova, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US stocks surged on Wednesday after Donald Trump paused ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90 days. Plus, the EU and China are working on a new trade relationship because of the levies. Meanwhile, Apple is looking to boost production in India. Mentioned in this podcast:EU calls for ‘negotiated resolution’ with China in face of US tariffsApple turns to India to help ease Trump’s China tariffsUS stocks soar as Donald Trump backs down in global trade warThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump is pushing ahead with another 50 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, and there are questions about what will happen to nearly $2tn worth of pledges to invest in the US because of the levies. Plus, the FT’s Katie Martin explains why a selloff in US Treasuries could mean a world of hurt for markets. Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump to proceed with extra 50% tariff on China as trade war escalatesUS tariffs threaten almost $2tn of investment pledges by global companies Markets could get a lot worse — and quicklyThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.