Future Growth Will Be Driven By Banks, Not the Fed | Andy Constan

This week, we discuss an insanely busy news cycle from geopolitics to surging metals and commodities, AI CapEx bottlenecks, and the SCOTUS tariff ruling. We also dig into the mega-cap rotation, political moves for midterms, and signs of economic re-acceleration shaping markets in 2026. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_  Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp  Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lp3pWEKx9j0ZHK4ci7Idq3AUfoGLL5O1/view?usp=sharing  — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade (07:52) Yield Curve Steepening (09:22) GDPNow & The Trade Deficit (13:42) Grayscale Ad (14:24) Economic Reacceleration (16:22) Market Rotation & K-Reversal (18:53) Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? (20:40) The New G2 World (22:56) Who’s Buying Bonds? (26:50) Grayscale Ad (27:40) Small Cap & Metals Rotation (30:43) Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle (37:26) SCOTUS Tariff Ruling (43:23) Making Moves For Midterms (46:34) Short Mag7 & Follow The Government (49:13) Commodities and Metals (51:02) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to break down why markets may be leaving the Fed-driven era behind, how private credit and bank balance sheets are becoming the real engine of growth, and what massive AI and onshoring investments mean for rates, risk, and the business cycle going forward. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) The Shift From The Fed To Private Credit (05:50) Push Vs Pull Demand For Credit (08:47) Grayscale Ad (09:25) Money Vs Credit (17:28) The Loop Of Spending & Savings (27:04) Grayscale Ad (27:51) Is The New Credit Flywheel A Policy Choice? (32:00) Impact On Investment & Consumption (35:19) Moving Back To A Traditional Business Cycle (38:52) Historical Disruptions Vs Today (44:05) Do Assets Go Higher In This New Regime? (53:04) Foreign Capital Flows & Trade Deficits (01:01:47) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to break down why the metals trade still feels early, whether oil finally catches a bid in 2026, why AI could be in its last innings, and what Bitcoin’s frustrating price action is quietly telling traders. We also unpack how to think about managing risk and Tony’s advice for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx TG Macro Conference: https://tgmacro.com/conference/ __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) TG MACRO Conference (04:38) 2025 Recap & 2026 Expectations (08:34) The Precious Metals Trade (14:29) Grayscale Ad (15:06) Where Does Oil Go In 2026? (17:08) Biggest 2026 Trading Themes (21:49) Metals & The Debasement Trade (23:02) Late Innings Of The AI Trade (24:46) Grayscale Ad (25:35) We’re Still In A Bull Market (30:11) Bitcoin’s Disappointment (33:06) Trading Bubbles (34:05) Advice For 2026 (36:01) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) 2025 Wins & Misses (07:48) What Drives Rates In 2026 (13:00) Grayscale Ad (13:37) Inflation Deep Dive (18:47) Labor Market & Housing (22:59) The K-Shaped Fed Cycle (29:50) Grayscale Ad (30:37) Fed Balance Sheet (35:06) Active Treasury Issuance (37:46) Equities In 2026 (45:20) Commodities Heating Up (48:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy! — Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Kuppy’s Feudalism Piece: https://pracap.com/feudalism/ — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Economic Feudalism (06:51) Why Is Wage Growth Bad? (09:14) Malice Or Negligence? (12:28) Grayscale Ad (13:06) Global Feudalism (18:27) How Does This Unwind? (22:07) No Uses For Productive Capital (25:46) Positioning For Political Revolution (31:05) Grayscale Ad (31:52) Where Do You Invest? (38:27) Biggest Story In Macro (41:50) The Problems With US Allocators (48:50) Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market (53:50) AI Boom Winners & Losers (57:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) Risk-Off Pivot (07:28) Unpacking System Triggers (12:26) Grayscale Ad (13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses (17:13) Inflation Expectations (23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy (25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs (32:17) Grayscale Ad (33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity (40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions (47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic (50:49) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed’s new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JCTPNIa3J3RutQTuPU37_vfPqIUpcKZ3/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) FOMC Takeaways (07:29) Small Cap Rotation Underway? (09:45) Psychology Of Inflation (11:39) The Fed’s Economic Projections (14:50) Grayscale Ad (15:28) China’s Trade Performance (17:45) Mag7 Ceiling Reached? (18:22) Yields Diverging & Fiscal Stimulus (22:12) CPI Volatility, K-Economy & Messy Politics (27:36) Grayscale Ad (28:24) “Run It Hot” Vs The Dollar (30:47) Short Mag7, Long Main Street? (33:08) Credit Markets & Correlations (36:08) Are We Getting A Santa Rally? (40:27) Consequences of Wealth Disparity (46:58) We’re In The Financial Repression Endgame (50:24) Crypto’s Disappointment (54:03) Hope For The The Youth (57:49) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founder & CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast Keith Dicker breaks down why global markets now depend on constant stimulus, why Canada looks fragile as the U.S. strengthens, and how fiscal expansion and bond-market stress could shape the future of macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Keith: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:23) Everything Revolves Around U.S. Macro (06:17) Repeat of Powell Repo Pivot? (13:15) Grayscale Ad (13:55) Fed QE: Past vs Present (18:30) Did We Bypass Recession? (23:21) Canada’s Comeback & Global Markets (26:30) Unpacking Canada’s Bullish MOU (29:37) Grayscale Ad (30:23) Fixed Income vs Growing Debt Burden (38:21) Precious Metals & Commodities (40:44) Hedging Tail Risks (43:09) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss why the economy feels strong on paper but fragile underneath, from debt-fueled spending and AI-driven growth to rising concentration and growing policy distortions. We also explore where the pressure is really building, the metals trade, and what could break next as 2026 approaches. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BhzyBXj0Qt7LhUlDrb1MYor_iLLP-LQP/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:21) Consumer Spending & K-Economy (09:50) Labor, Small Businesses & the Macro Endgame (16:01) Grayscale Ad (16:39) Market Concentration & CapEx Cycle (23:47) AI Cycle Stage & Race with China (27:44) The Metals Trade (32:14) Grayscale Ad (33:01) Canada’s Big Pivot (37:41) New Fed Chair & Rates (44:10) Vol Dynamics & What to Own (50:33) Centralization & The Race to Zero (55:00) 2026 Fed Games (57:59) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an edge in trading macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Aahan: https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:38) The Real State of the Economy (06:08) Consumption & Real vs Nominal Growth (16:51) Grayscale Ad (17:29) AI CapEx's Economic Impact (26:59) Grayscale Ad (27:47) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Transmission (34:21) Understanding & Trading Liquidity (40:25) Finding Edge in Macro Trading (45:24) Turning Macro into Money (52:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance