
The Work We Do Special: Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East
Middle East is increasing risks for global energy, fertilizer, and agrifood systems.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments, are already pushing up energy and agricultural input costs worldwide. Because energy and fertilizer markets are closely linked to food production, these shocks can quickly spread through global agrifood systems. At the same time, possible shifts toward biofuel production could further increase food price volatility. Import-dependent countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, are especially exposed to these risks.
In the short term, measures such as diversifying trade routes, strengthening market monitoring, supporting farmers, and providing targeted assistance to vulnerable countries can help stabilize supply chains.
Diplomatic efforts to ensure the safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also remain critical for protecting global energy markets and food security.
Timestamps:
00:34 Impacts of the conflict so far
03:48 Regional impacts
08:01 How long can the system absorb the shock?
13:19 Economic modelling scenarios
18:03 How this conflict differs from Ukraine
22:52 Policy recommendations
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