Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 19-Mar

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday afternoon trading, a bit off session highs. Geopolitics was the big focus today though headline volatility remains high and there was not much in the way of meaningful incremental development. Fundamental questions remain around the duration of the conflict in Iran, with no obvious off-ramps

U.S. stocks sold off Wednesday as investors turned more risk-off amid renewed Middle East escalation, including attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, retaliation threats against Gulf energy sites, and reports of a strike on a Qatari LNG facility. Markets also digested a hotter-than-expected February producer price report, which added to inflation concerns and pressured Treasuries. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged as expected, but hawkish takeaways from Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference further weighed on sentiment.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended just a bit off session lows. It was a quieter session compared to recent days as stocks built on Monday's rally despite the instability in the Middle East. The February pending home sales index was up 1.8% m/m, a surprise gain vs consensus for a 1.4% contraction.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though off best levels. Stock rebounded in Monday trading with the biggest focus on potential relief for the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. In macro news, March’s Empire State Manufacturing Index went down seven points month over month to -0.2, missing estimates.

US equities were lower again this week. The war in Iran and its broader impacts remained the central story for the markets. Focus has remained sharply on the shipping standstill around the Strait of Hormuz, shut-in output by Persian Gulf producers, and crude prices near $100/barrel.

US equities were down in Thursday trading, just off worse levels. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now pacing for weekly declines. The prevailing market headwinds included hawkish updates around the conflict in Iran and a big backup in yields.

US equities were lower after very choppy Wednesday trading. Stocks were unable to hang onto earlier gains amid more headline volatility around the Iran war and oil prices. There was still not much meaningful progress toward an offramp despite Trump saying today that the US was running out of targets and US, Israeli military officials expecting at least two more weeks of operations.

US equities ended mostly lower Tuesday, well off best levels in choppy trading. Stocks unable to hold onto earlier gains, coming off following afternoon reports Iran has started to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz.

US equities were higher in Monday trading as stocks reversed earlier declines on the latest dovish Iran developments and ended near best levels. Stocks reversed earlier declines after Trump told CBS News that war with Iran could be over soon. The New York Fed's February Survey of Consumer Expectations found median year-ahead inflation expectations dipping slightly to 3.0% while holding at that level for the three- and five-year time horizons.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 down for a second-straight week, posting its worst performance since late November. The Iran conflict was the big story of the week, with the US and Israel attacking Iran over the weekend and killing Iran's Supreme Leader. The macro resilience theme was upended by Friday's February payrolls report, which showed an ~92K decline, missing consensus for a +55K gain.