Evening Market Recap - Monday, 19-Oct

Major US equity indices were largely lower this week, dragged down by softness in the Mag 7 complex and a late-week paring of gains in the AI trade. The week's FOMC meeting was largely as forecast, with members voting to hold rates steady (with Hammack and Cook dissenting). The Iran war continued to bubble in the background, making its influence felt via this week's choppy oil trading.

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading. However, breadth was very positive, with the equal-weight outperforming the cap-weighted index by ~140 bp. The AI trade was under pressure after a strong week despite what seemed to be positive earnings takeaways for the compute/capex theme.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though index upside was limited. Breadth was negative with the equal-weight index again lagging the cap-weighted S&P. The AI trade fared well with semis/memory and largely higher, though there were a few pockets of softness.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending not far from best levels. More positive recent sentiment has been attributed to removal of some high-profile funding overhangs and renewed focus on the strong compute/capex demand narrative

US equities closed higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. AI trade had a solid day backed by positive sentiment around multiple headlines, including Meta's $95B equity raise and SpaceX's $40B debt raise. October Dallas Fed manufacturing printed at 13.4, topping 7.0 consensus and September's 9.8.

US equities were mixed this week following last week's mostly lower performance. AI trade remained the biggest market story, with an early-week rebound giving way to a sharp Thursday selloff as funding and capex concerns remained the key overhang. Q3 earnings were broadly supportive of the macro backdrop despite continued pockets of cost pressure.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending not far from their worst levels. The S&P and Nasdaq are now lower week-to-date. However, breadth was positive and the equal-weight S&P was ~190 bp better than the cap-weighted index.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending not far from their best levels. The AI trade was the leader with semis/memory higher. Earnings takeaways were mixed with the usual moving pieces and nothing particularly incremental for the market narrative.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading. Small cap R2K and equal-weight S&P the notable gainers. Some stabilization in the AI trade following earlier pullback partly chalked up to poor debut of Korean neocloud provider Elice, which fell more than 30%.

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading, though stocks ended off best levels. AI trade bounce was the big story today, largely chalked up to oversold conditions and cleaner positioning. It’s a fairly quiet week ahead on the macro calendar ahead, particularly with the Fedspeak blackout period ahead of the October 28th FOMC announcement.