Califoreboding

For the last couple of years, investors have wondered how voters would respond to the unorthodoxies of the second Trump Presidency. Now that midterms are over, You Can See Everything: it’s a rout, with the NYT projecting 53 Democratic Senators (plus 2 Independents that caucus with them) and 257 Democratic House members. In this Eye on the Market, we walk through the midterm results and economic/political factors around it, the implicit midterm referendum on AI and the latest AI-related market developments. Also, a section on You Can See Everything, Theranos, Elizabeth Holmes, David Boies, Tim Draper and a history of corporate fraud. Fraud is poison for markets, and investors should be equally unforgiving of people who commit it, condone it, conceal it or protect it. Watch the video

Many client questions I received last week in California were laden with a sense of foreboding: third rail questions about the US Federal debt as ten year yields blow through the Bessent Maginot line, the elevated share of US market returns and growth attributable to AI, the sustainability of US equity markets close to all-time highs, Anthropic’s dire warnings about open weight models and cyber risks, rising stress in private credit and European deindustrialization. Watch the video  

Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear window post-mortem on each. Watch the video

The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s imbalanced economy and unrelenting mercantilism While there’s plenty of evidence to support Stephen Roach’s thesis of unsustainable imbalances in China’s economy, China is living up to anthropomorphic characteristics of this year’s zodiac, the Fire Horse, in at least one regard: bold moves, self-reliance, speed, action and innovation in the energy transition. Watch the video

I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go public and some market technicals related to AI. Watch the video

Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets. In this special issue we look at the details: US reserve currency status, capital flows, the much anticipated but still unprofitable “Sell America” trade, US corporate profitability and productivity in the age of AI, investing in Security & Resilience, equity market concentration, energy independence and the revival of the US IPO market. The biggest medium-term concerns for investors in US assets, other than the sustainability of the US Federal debt and cyclical inflationary pressures: the increased unpredictability in the rule of law, and government defunding of science and sidelining of scientific expertise. Watch the video

The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video

Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice. Watch the video

Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military officers, and a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream. Watch the video

Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid. Watch the video